Republican presidential hopefuls head to Southern California this week

What to know about the debate, GOP convention and our coverage

Political eyes turn to Southern California this week as presidential hopefuls swoop in for the second presidential primary debate, fundraisers and a state GOP convention.

While it still remains to be seen which candidates officially qualified for the debate — the Republican National Committee is expected to confirm attendees Monday, Sept. 25 — at least four will be in Anaheim later in the week for the California Republican Party’s fall convention: former President Donald Trump, tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Trump will also be in Costa Mesa on Saturday, Sept. 30 for a fundraiser. Former Vice President Mike Pence has a reception on the books in Anaheim on Thursday.

But before all that, the presidential primary debate kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, a popular setting for Republicans.

“The Reagan Library is always an attractive venue for Republican debates, in part because it is a great space but also because Ronald Reagan’s legacy still has pull within the Republican ranks,” said Matthew Beckmann, a political science professor at UC Irvine with expertise in presidential politics. “Of course, that presidential candidates can use the trip to fundraise in Southern California doesn’t hurt.”

The threshold to qualify for this debate — to be broadcast on Fox Business Network and Univision from 6 p.m.-8 p.m. — was raised from the previous contest.

Candidates need at least 3% in two national polls or will need 3% in one national poll as well as two polls from four of the early voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. And their donors must include 50,000 unique contributors with 200 of those coming from 20 states.

DeSantis, Pence, Ramaswamy, Scott and Trump, as well as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, appear likely to have qualified.

Trump, who sat out the first debate, will be speaking to auto workers in Detroit instead. His contentious history with the Reagan Library aside, Trump is looking more to the 2024 general election rather than the primary.

California Republicans will still hear from Trump as he’s scheduled to address a luncheon at the convention on Friday. The event — with tickets ranging from $500-$600 — is already sold out.

Scott will speak around 3 p.m. Friday, and DeSantis is slated to headline a dinner banquet later that evening. Ramaswamy leads a reception and lunch banquet on Saturday.

“All eyes will be on California next week as our state hosts the second GOP presidential debate in my hometown of Simi Valley and on the hallowed grounds of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library,” said CAGOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson. “With 169 delegates up for grabs — the most of any state — California will play a pivotal role in deciding our party’s nominee.”

While in Southern California, the presidential contenders would be wise to “understand the electorate and strike a balance of fiscal conservatism, an acknowledgment of the environment (and) climate change and avoid the cultural wedges,” like LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, said Matt Lesenyie, a Cal State Long Beach political science professor.

Voters, he said, are less concerned with “the controversy of the day” but want to hear more “plain-spoken, common sense-sounding solutions and the hope for bipartisanship.”

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register

CA Conservatives React to GOP Debate

On Tuesday night, the candidates vying for the Republican nomination for president gathered at the Venetian Hotel on the Las Vegas Strip for the last GOP debate of 2015. Below are some observations from various conservative and Republican leaders around the Golden State:

Arnold Steinberg, GOP Strategist and Pollster
Cruz was aggressive, almost rude; Rubio articulate, but hassled; Carson, talking points; Christie and Kasich, executive but redundant; Fiorina, precise; Paul, sensible. Trump keeps killing Jeb, on auto-pilot to defeat, with kindness. Trump finally acted like the front-runner.

James Lacy, Publisher, California Political Review
Rubio was hands-down the audience favorite, a terrific communicator who bettered both Cruz and Paul in the exchanges, and won the debate. TV viewers should know the live audience was decidedly, almost rudely anti-Trump, but I don’t think Trump will lose any ground at all with his voters, as he countered the Bush “chaos candidate” punches effectively and made his points.

Jon Coupal, President, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
When you’ve argued nine cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, a presidential debate seems like a walk in the park. Cruz control.

Celeste Greig, Grassroots Conservative Leader, Publisher GreigReport
No losers; however, Carly Fiorina looked uncomfortable, sometimes angry, no longer impressive, no policy making, some sound bites, interrupting with “ask me a question.” Marco Rubio quite sharp and quick with his answers. Trump did very well with foreign policy, and the need to be tougher to destroy ISIS, and to cut Internet access to terrorist and countries that harbor them. Cruz and Rubio went after each other because both are fast, smart and knowledgeable–a lot of animosity between the two of them.

Joel Pollak, Editor-in-Chief, Breitbart California
Donald Trump had his best night ever, while Ted Cruz got bogged down fighting Marco Rubio, who finally faced tough questions about his immigration policy; no one else broke through. Trump is no longer the frontrunner – he’s the favorite to win the nomination.

This piece was originally published by Breitbart.com

Read more reactions to the debate here … 

Do Californians Even Care About High Taxes?

Tax surveyIn Tuesday’s Republican debate in Milwaukee a graphic was displayed to show where Facebook activity occurred discussing taxes. The green shaded areas on the graph indicated areas and states that had Above Average chatter on taxes (whatever average is). What catches the eye is that about two-thirds of California is white — no heavy tax chatter. Included in the white area are the large metropolitan and heavily populated areas of Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego and Sacramento.

Does this mean that Californians don’t care about taxes, at least to the extent that they don’t talk about taxes on Facebook as much as residents of other states?

More to the point for analysts and consultants, does this Facebook chart bode well for the many advocates who are hoping to place tax increases on next year’s ballot? Are taxes not a concern for Californians?

Certainly, the Facebook graphic is not a scientific survey. Who knows how many likely voters are spending time on Facebook to discuss taxes?

Perhaps, Californians are not as concerned about taxes because the state is flush. The Controller’s Office announced yesterday that in October the state pulled in nearly $200 million more than was expected lifting the surplus over $500 million more than anticipated by budget projections.

A budget surplus would play a role in the coming debates over tax measures on the ballot and lead voters to feel that no new taxes are necessary – at least those who discuss such things on Facebook.

Originally published by Fox and Hounds Daily

Takeaways From Second GOP Debate

As usual, there are so many polls, opinions and scorecards examining who did well during last night’s Republican debate at the Reagan Library. Here are my takeaways – not so much on what happened but where things might lead after the debate performances.

Carly Fiorina impressed those voters looking for outsiders to run the government and she will move up at the expense of Ben Carson and Donald Trump.

Trump, however, probably didn’t damage himself with his base of support and will remain relatively steady although the establishment GOP will still search for ways to make him disappear.

Meanwhile, the establishment will remain splintered for the time being. Jeb Bush showed some spunk (Code name: Eveready) and might reassure his backers to a degree but the establishment is still wary about him. Ohio Gov. John Kasich held steady and could be around to emerge if the Bush doesn’t catch fire. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie delivered another good debate performance but still will find himself stalled behind Bush and perhaps Kasich.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker did better than the first debate but will probably not move the needle much.

Marco Rubio showed good knowledge on foreign affairs and will remain in the multi-candidate fray to the end (whenever that may be.) He might also be setting himself up for a VP nod, depending how the primaries break.

Ted Cruz demonstrated his debating skills. He made sure he looked at the camera nearly all the time instead of looking at the questioners. Still, his strategy as the outsider working from the inside has the problem of Trump, Carson and now Fiorina blocking his path as true outsiders.

Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul showed that the GOP is certainly made up of different types but neither will break out to a wider audience with their performances.

The biggest move in the polls the next few days will belong to Carly Fiorina. Many of the debate watchers didn’t see her in the first round when she participated in the JV event.

I missed more questions from radio talk host and attorney, Hugh Hewitt, who along with CNN’s Dana Bash, had a subordinate role to CNN’s Jake Tapper on the moderator panel. Hewitt got into the politics of running for office and winning when he noted that Kasich didn’t seem to want to attack potential Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton whereas Fiorina would bring up Clinton without being asked.

Kasich explained people were still getting to know him so he was spending time explaining his record. Fiorina picked up on that saying she wanted to talk about records — Clinton’s — and attack it for lack of accomplishments.

At any rate, not enough time for Hewitt who I found was an excellent interviewer when he was one of the hosts as I did his Los Angeles PBS TV show, Life and Times, on numerous occasions in the 1990s.

That’s my reaction. There are many others, of course, from pundits and spinners. Old friends Mike Murphy and Todd Harris were firing off tweets and re-tweeting comments that supported their candidates, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, respectively.

The three-hour debate was Lincoln-Douglas like in length if not in format. The Lincoln-Douglas debates also lasted three hours but had no back and forth arguments or a moderator attempting to gain control. Rather the first speaker talked for an hour, the second speaker for an hour-and-a-half and the first speaker came back for a 30-minute rejoinder.

Not exactly a made for television event.

Originally published by Fox and Hounds Daily

California and the GOP Debate

Republican presidential candidate businesswoman Carly Fiorina stands on stage for a pre-debate forum at the Quicken Loans Arena, Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015,  in Cleveland. Seven of the candidates have not qualified for the primetime debate. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

Looking for California in the GOP debate presented some challenges even with one candidate who has tentative ties to the Golden State and the state’s Democratic governor who tried to put himself into the debate via a letter to the candidates on climate change.

There was only one Californian (sort of) in the field of 17 — Carly Fiorina who made her name as CEO of Hewlett-Packard and was handily defeated by Barbara Boxer for the California U.S. Senate seat in 2010. She now lives in Virginia.

She did fairly well in the first debate, many pundits declaring her the winner. And it appeared that former Texas governor Rick Perry has Fiorina lined up for the Secretary of State job if he becomes president. In criticizing the Iran nuclear deal Perry said, “I’d rather have Carly Fiorina over there doing our negotiation rather than (Secretary of State) John Kerry.”

Major California companies Google and Apple also made it into the first debate with Fiorina saying they should cooperate with the government on investigations that might prevent terrorism.

Apparently, Jerry Brown sent his letter to the wrong recipients for the main debate. California’s Democratic governor tried to work his way into the debate when he sent a letter asking GOP candidates how they would address climate change. He should have sent his letter to the Fox News Channel debate moderators. They didn’t bother to engage the candidates on climate change in the debate featuring the 10 leading candidates.

There was a reference to climate change in the first debate held for candidates in positions 11 to 17 in the polls. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham responded that if he debated presumptive Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton on climate change she would argue cap-and-trade that would ruin the economy while he would focus on energy independence and a clean environment. Cap-and-trade is a key strategy in Brown’s camapign on climate change.

Immigration was a big issue at the debate although nothing specific to California. However, the situation on sanctuary cities was raised in both the earlier and later debates. The sanctuary cities issue gained headlines after the shooting death in San Francisco of Kate Steinle by an illegal immigrant who had been deported many times but still came back. Candidates from Jeb Bush to Ted Cruz, to Bobby Jindal said they would eliminate federal funds to sanctuary cities.

There are a number of presidential candidates working with individuals with strong California ties. To name a few: Jeff Miller is campaign manager for Rick Perry, Mike Murphy is a strategist for Jeb Bush and Todd Harris is communication director for Marco Rubio.

While California didn’t have a big role in the debates one of her favorite sons was mentioned frequently –Ronald Reagan. And that will carry over with the next Republican debate scheduled for the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley September 16.

Originally published of Fox and Hounds Daily

Is Rick Perry the one?

For those concerned with a philosophically conservative, free market approach to government and economics in the White House perhaps look no further than Texas Governor Rick Perry who at the Republican Presidential Debate, hit the core principles that ought to be most important to conservative and Republican voters: responsible military policy, free market economics and aggressive entitlement reform.

Going into the GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library the spotlight was hoisted on Rick Perry as the new kid on the block and the frontrunner in the campaign. As a debater in the presidential setting, Perry has far less experience than many of those in the race, especially former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even if one were to concede that Perry did not carry himself as a slick debater, when examining his debate rhetoric closely, it becomes clear what Perry believes and why he might be the best choice to lead a new movement within the Republican Party, and more importantly, the nation.

Perhaps the most thoughtful insight into the economic philosophy of the Lone Star State chief were his comments during the debate about chastising the use of government spending to stimulate the economy.  President Obama, Perry argued, “has proven for once and for all that government spending will not create one job. Keynesian policy and Keynesian theory is now done. We’ll never have to have that experiment on America again.” Perry appears not to believe in government manipulation of the economic system to spur job creation and activity in the economy. While Perry does not say it outright, he defacto endorses a more Austrian approach or a pure free market approach to economics.

His criticism of government involvement in economic activity is also evident in his beliefs about how jobs are created: “You want to create jobs in America?  You free the American entrepreneur to do what he or she does, which is risk their capital, and I’ll guarantee you, the entrepreneur in America, the small businessman and woman, they’re looking for a president that will say we’re going to lower the tax burden on you and we’re going to lower the regulation impact on you, and free them to do what they do best: create jobs.”

Perry though, is by no means a free market purest—at least on the state level—his use of enterprise to lure businesses to Texas is problematic, but he makes it clear through his rhetoric frequently that states should choose policies that work best locally. One example of this were his debate comments on health care policy, “we understand that if we can get the federal government out of our business in the states when it comes to health care, we’ll come up with ways to deliver more health care to more people cheaper than what the federal government is mandating today with their strings attached, here’s how you do it, one-size-fits-all effort out of Washington, D.C.”

Perry’s harsh rhetoric on Social Security also demonstrates that he will push hard as president for entitlement reform. His comments accurately calling Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” have been widely publicized and criticized but during the debate he did not back away from his statements even when challenged by Romney: “It is a Ponzi scheme to tell our kids that are 25 or 30 years old today, you’re paying into a program that’s going to be there. Anybody that’s for the status quo with Social Security today is involved with a monstrous lie to our kids, and it’s not right.”

Perry did not go as far to call for changing the Social Security system during the debate like former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain did when he astutely advocated for the Chilean approach to Social Security. “I believe in the Chilean model,” Cain said, “where you give a personal retirement account option so we can move this society from an entitlement society to an empowerment society.” Perry has not demonstrated a willingness to advocate the same approach as Cain perhaps because of the problems it caused the President Bush while in the Oval Office.

As for military policy, Perry advocated a more sensible approach showing a skepticism towards imperialistic approaches to foreign policy. “I don’t think America needs to be in the business of adventurism,” Perry said. “Americans don’t want to see their young men and women going into foreign countries without a clear reason that American interests are at stake. And they want to see not only a clear entrance; they want to see a clear exit strategy, as well.”

Emphasizing differences in foreign policy with the Obama administration Perry said “We should never put our young men and women’s lives at risk when American interests are not clearly defined by the president of the United States, and that’s one of the problems this president is doing today.”

Characterizing Perry’s first debate performance as blockbuster would be a stretch but when dissecting his rhetoric one might be led to believe that Rick Perry is the real deal.