How push polls pervert politics

Voting booth“There are lies, damn lies and statistics,” goes the old saying. It has always been true that statistics can be presented in ways that are highly deceptive and intentionally misleading.

A Midwestern city might truthfully claim that its average temperature is a perfect 74 degrees — just like the Hawaiian Islands.  It could be technically true, except that the deviation from that temperature in the sub-tropical climate isn’t very great, while the Midwestern city might swing from below freezing in the winter to triple-digit heat in the summer. That comfortable-sounding “average” is sure not the full story.

Still, for susceptibility to manipulation, statistics don’t hold a candle to polling — especially political polling.  During this primary season in California, the various candidates are releasing reams of polling to show how far ahead they are of their competitors.  Two different polls can show diametrically opposite results, with one candidate showing he or she is leading 80 percent to 20 percent over an opponent while the opponent might claim to be ahead by a margin of 90 to 10.

The credibility of political polling took a huge hit in the last presidential election. Virtually all the polling showed Hillary Clinton coasting to a relatively easy victory over Donald Trump.  In fact, his path to victory in the Electoral College was so narrow that he would have to “run the table” in every swing state — something all the pundits said was next to impossible.

What’s particularly odd about that election is that even the good polls were wrong. And by good polls we mean those administered by pollsters who don’t have a political agenda.  Good pollsters will admit that their reputations depend on being accurate in their predictions.

The lesson here is that voters need to take any polling with a grain of salt. That is especially true when the polling is paid for by an interest group.

One recent example makes this clear. There has been a recent push by supporters of higher taxes to impose a statewide “fee” on the monthly water bills of all water users — homeowners and businesses — to pay for programs to deal with contaminated water supplies.  Interestingly, the opposition to the proposal includes both the Association of California Water Agencies (ACWA) and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, two groups frequently at odds over water-rate practices.  But here, both groups have deep concerns about the state intruding in an area best left to local government interests. …

Click here to read the full article from the OC Register

At What Point Will We Say Politics Is Out of Control?

It’s no secret people are not excited over President Trump, and tensions are high among supporters and dissidents alike about the current situation in Washington. Debates over the health care bill (in every iteration), social issues and gun rights have lost all logical merit, and we are starting to see similar tendencies in state governments, who are clinging to as much agency as possible in these interesting times.

But now we’ve reached the point of violence; violence that could have been prevented with less partisanship and better discourse. Political gamesmanship has gotten out of control, for both politicians and fervent supporters. This seems to be a known fact, but when we will finally accept it? When will we finally accept politics are out of control?

Politics Over Policy, Party Over Country

How many representatives vote against their own party? Outside of Democrats in more conservative districts and Republicans fearing backlash in districts without a strong base, barely any, and when someone does break ranks, it is for sure-to-pass bills or when the risk of a scandal is just too high. While political parties were formed in part to organize ideas and provide a united front to defend them (much to the chagrin of some of the founding fathers), the fact that representatives have little individual voice is concerning, most of all to constituents from districts that stand to be most affected by legislation.

Is party loyalty not turning into a great cost to America? What bipartisan efforts have we seen coming from Congress? The only things of note this writer could find were a mental health bill passed last year and a budget that’s necessary for the government to run in the first place. Business as usual has become no business at all, and conservative ideas won’t fly if they come from a liberal, and vice versa. Policy has become about the person, not the benefit to society.

Legal Corruption and Rigging the Game

Gerrymandering is doing nothing to improve democracy, both at the state level and federally. It encourages pandering exclusively to a party base, silencing moderate and centrist voices that keep radicals out of office and limit partisanship.

On top of that, the concept of a judge as a political appointment has escalated, with court appointments and resignations playing out like a chess board, and some appointment periods growing far longer than the constitution intended. These types of actions extend beyond terms and are clear efforts to entrench policy and power. It removes the American people’s ability to react to changes and political gestures.

People Are Afraid

People are doing everything they can to stay safe from real and perceived threats, but without organization or an acknowledgment of reality, what can they do? They can stay private from snooping and attempt to make an impact on the local level, but there is an entrenched attitude in Washington that is toxic and is only spreading fear.

Now people are afraid of their own government, with some talking of it as a police state or a country ruled by a tyrant. The narrative being spun by both sides of the media is that we’re headed towards disaster and that every action is taking us one step closer. It seems like we’ve been in a constant state of disaster or emergency for the last 15 years. People have either acclimated and stopped caring, which is bad if there’s a real disaster, or have lived in a state of panic, which makes them easily controlled.

Is it time to say enough’s enough?

There is a growing trend in this country towards the irrational and towards an utter breakdown of political discourse. Some people (likely justifiably) think that politics is completely out of control and that America needs to focus its efforts on finding a new, healthier political norm. Yet that isn’t going to happen until the voting public comes together and makes their voice heard at every level.

What do you plan on doing to raise the standard? Do you think that the current political situation is out of control? Please leave a comment below and tell us your thoughts.

Sandra is a writer and blogger who focuses on political topics and technological issues. Having lived in California for several years, she is seeing more division than ever within the state’s borders.

Remembering Allan Hoffenblum

Allan Hoffenblum 2The sudden death of Allan Hoffenblum was a tear in the fabric of California’s political world. He was an endless source of information to the media and political players who subscribed to the California Target Book which he co-founded and managed amassing much information on California’s political races.

More importantly to many of us in the political world he was a friend and a mentor.

I knew Allan for many years and was pleased to host him a number of times at the public policy class I teach at Pepperdine University. On each occasion he would re-new an old friendship with the public policy school’s then dean, Jim Wilburn, who Allan recruited to work on President Nixon’s re-elect campaign in California in 1972. Allan took pleasure in sharing his knowledge and experiences with students.

Allan managed many political campaigns once he opened his consulting business. But, it was in his role as an independent observer of the political scene that gained him his greatest following as he explained the complex, rough and tumble world of California politics with an unbiased eye. I often heard him express harsh words for the Republican Party that he worked for in the ‘60s and 70s as it slowly lost its competitive edge.

Allan liked to tell me about the time he was directing political efforts for the Republican Party and used the Proposition 13 tax revolt to boost many of his candidates. Here’s how I wrote up his story in my book, The Legend of Proposition 13 that was published a dozen years ago:

Hoffenblum remembered that one of the candidates for Assembly, Dennis Brown, came to see him with some interesting polling information. Brown’s poll consisted of two questions. The first question asked how voters intended to vote in his race. The answers showed that newcomer Brown was substantially behind. The second question asked, if you knew that Dennis Brown supported Proposition 13 and his opponent opposed it how would you vote? The numbers nearly flip-flopped. Hoffenblum decided to poll other districts using similar questions. The results were nearly the same.

Hoffenblum sought out Jarvis and put together letters in sixteen races, including the State Senate, the Assembly and Congress, all tailored to each particular race. Jarvis’s letters stated simply that the Republican newcomer had supported Proposition 13 and that the Democratic incumbent had opposed it. The letters hit just a few days before the election and caught the incumbents off guard.

Fourteen of sixteen incumbents opposed by Jarvis were defeated. Pro-Prop 13 Republicans elected to the legislature for the first time were dubbed “Proposition 13 babies.” Hoffenblum said, “It was the biggest election landslide for California Republicans since the election of Warren Harding.”

Times have changed but Allan’s perceptive analysis of the California political scene was eternal. Many, including me, will miss him.

You may read more about Allan Hoffenblum’s career in the Sacramento Bee here and the Capitol Weekly here.

Originally published by Fox and Hounds Daily

California’s Political Earthquake On Its Way

Photo courtesy Franco Folini, flickr

Photo courtesy Franco Folini, flickr

California is facing an uncertain future – and it’s not an earthquake, despite a current blockbuster movie. There’s a water crisis, an education system declared woeful by a state judge and soaring costs on all levels – water, utilities, energy, housing and taxes. These could all be eclipsed by the huge elephant in the room – unfunded pensions and health care for state and local government employees that could be $1 trillion or more.

What are our public officials doing? As was recently reported, there are no fewer than a dozen proposals in the legislature to increase taxes AND spending, despite the massive underfunding of pensions and health care. The governor crows about a California ‘comeback’ but he almost completely ignores the trillion dollar bomb expected to hit over the next 20 years. This government employee pensions and healthcare bomb only gets worse, as life expectancies expand and investments underperform the rosy scenarios built into their projections.

Take heart, California, there is change coming and it’s not the San Andreas splitting apart. It will be a political earthquake and it’s called the Neighborhood Legislature (NL). It will replace the dysfunctional and practically corrupt (if not actually corrupt in some cases) California legislature. We just received Title and Summary and we have built a professional plus volunteer organization that will soon be circulating through the neighborhood precincts of California to collect signatures and build support for this groundbreaking proposal.

Why is this such a political earthquake? Because it holds real promise that it will return power to actual representatives of the people, citizen legislators, who will be able to explore and implement the important reforms unimpeded by the allure and/or sting from special interest money spent to protect the status quo. These citizen legislators will replace the professional fundraisers and special interest representatives we currently endure.

As a result of population growth, the electoral structure of California’s Legislature is ideal for special interest domination. The sheer size of the districts makes campaign funding and massive campaign operations all encompassing and dominant. That size also turns election campaigns into impersonal media efforts that have effectively turned off voters and choked off voter participation and confidence.

The NL changes this by chopping the current gargantuan districts into about 100 tiny ones. After representatives from these tiny districts are elected, they caucus and send one of their number to Sacramento. Thus, the same number, 120 (40 Senators and 80 Assemblymen) go to Sacramento to hold hearings and pass legislation. The Neighborhood Reps get a ratification vote for accountability.

The key is that in tiny districts, campaigns will be about issues, policy and the character of the candidate – not how much money they raise. Special interest groups won’t be able to win with attacks using independent expenditures. They can try – but in tiny districts, a candidate can effectively respond by going literally door to door, making the case directly to his or her constituents.

We realize this idea is going to disrupt the status quo. Its defenders will muster their resources to fight it. That’s why we are going into the neighborhoods, to build support door to door, person to person. The political class wants to protect its fundraising operation because it makes them a lot of money and secures their power.

California has huge promise – it can be the Golden State again if it can overcome its political dysfunction and leadership void. The Neighborhood Legislature is the key ingredient – an innovative disruptive restructuring worthy of the most innovative state in the U.S.  The state that gave the world the microchip, personal computer, electric car and cloud computing will also give the world a new electoral structure that will launch California into a sustainable position for the 21st century and beyond.

Originally published by Fox and Hounds Daily

California-based Businessman and Former Illinois Republican Official

America: Losing Our Religion

cross“Losing My Religion” is not just a song by R.E.M. It’s also a fact of American life.

That’s the message of a survey of more than 35,000 Americans just released by the Pew Research Center. The key finding: the number of Americans who claim no religious affiliation is growing, from 16 percent in 2007 to 23 percent in 2014. That’s nearly a quarter of the adult population. Meanwhile, the number of Christians in the U.S. is down 8 percent.

Pew estimates that the U.S. now counts about 56 million unaffiliated adults. The unchurched are larger than the number of Catholics and mainline Protestants and nearly equal to the number of evangelicals.

And it’s having a political impact. Look at the backlash last month to the “religious freedom” law passed in Indiana that would have allowed businesses to discriminate against same-sex couples on religious grounds. The huge wave of criticism shocked conservatives who are used to seeing “religious freedom” trump every argument. This time, conservatives were forced to back down.

The rise of the unchurched is partly due to the growing numbers of millennials. Millennials (Americans born after 1980) are the least churched generation — 35 percent are unaffiliated. But the turning away from religion is not confined to them. The Pew survey shows Christians declining and the unchurched increasing in every age group. Even seniors.

The growing number of unchurched matters politically because religiosity is a key marker of political affiliation. Not religion. Religiosity.

Today, if you can ask a voter only one question to identify his or her political leanings (besides “Are you a Democrat or a Republican?”), the best question would be “How often do you go to church?”

Pew reports that, among Americans with no religious affiliation, Democrats and Democratic-leaners outnumber Republicans and Republican-leaners 61 to 25 percent.

In 1992, I held a post as visiting professor of American politics at a leading Jesuit university. One of the perquisites of that position was an invitation to tea with the Cardinal. After we exchanged pleasantries, the Cardinal asked, “Is there anything happening in American politics that I should be aware of?”

“As a matter of fact, your eminence, there is,” I answered. “Since 1980, religious Americans of all faiths — fundamentalist Protestants, observant Catholics, even Orthodox Jews — have been moving toward the Republican Party. At the same time, irreligious Americans have found a home in the Democratic Party.

“This is something new,” I said. Then I went a fateful step further, adding, “I’m a little uncomfortable with the idea of a religious party in this country.”

The Cardinal pounced. “Well,” he said, “I’m a little uncomfortable with an irreligious party in this country.”

“Your eminence,” I responded, “I think I’ll have more tea.”

The unchurched are an important constituency in the Democratic coalition that Barack Obama brought to power. Democrats don’t like to talk about them, however, because they don’t want to be seen as “the godless party.”

The split between the churched and the unchurched goes back to the 1960s, when values became the defining partisan issue in the U.S. Bill Clinton once said, “If you look back on the sixties and, on balance, you think there was more good than harm, you’re probably a Democrat. And if you think there’s more harm than good, you’re probably a Republican.”

The backlash to the sixties among religious Americans helped create the Reagan majority. The growing number of unchurched Americans has undermined it. We’ve seen views on same-sex marriage and marijuana liberalize with astonishing speed.

In the long run, the Pew study is good news for Democrats. The problem is, politics doesn’t just reflect long-term trends, like changing demographics and declining religiosity. In politics, short-term factors typically dominate.

2008, for example, was a good year for Democrats. In the nationwide exit poll on election day, 16 percent of voters said they had no religious affiliation. They voted 67 percent for Democrats in elections for the House of Representatives.

2014 was a bad year for Democrats. In the 2014 midterm, the percentage of voters with no religious affiliation rose to 18 percent, even though the turnout of young voters was down. But enthusiasm for Democrats lagged in 2014, even among the unchurched. Only 60 percent of them voted for House Democrats.

Sure, the demographic trends look good for Democrats. The problem is, demographics is long. Politics is short.

(Bill Schneider is a professor at George Mason University and a contributor to Al Jazeera. This piece was posted most recently at the Huffington Post)

CARTOON: Obama’s Three Branches of Government

Obama government

 

Gary McCoy, Cagle Cartoons

Why Not Let People Vote For Whomever They Want?

What would it take to reverse the trend of voter turnout? The real answers to that question – partisan local elections, a reversal of the top two disaster (and the resulting voter confusion, expensive campaign nastiness, and party weakness), elections on weekends, loosening all the constitutional rules that take issues off the table – are considered politically unrealistic. In part because reformers supported reforms that discourage voting, and being a reformer means never having to say you were wrong.

Since this is California, you’ve probably got to start with a small step. So here it is: Restore to voters the power to vote for whomever they choose.

Didn’t know that that power had been taken away from you? It was – back in 2012 when a law, designed to implement top two, abolished write-in voting on the November ballot for partisan offices (president being the exception). The change didn’t get much attention at the time, but it eliminated one more reason for people to vote. There never were a lot of write-ins, but we’re told that every vote counts. And every vote counts more when so few people are voting.

Scrapping write-ins eliminated a California political tradition. As Richard Winger of Ballot Access News pointed out in an email, Californians elected a write-in candidate to Congress three times in a general election:  1930 (won by the son of a Sacramento Congressman who died in office), 1946 (when William Knowland won the last couple months of Hiram Johnson’s last U.S. Senate term), 1982 (Ron Packard).  In eliminating write-ins, California went against the grain. According to Winger, California is the only state besides Louisiana that ever had write-ins and abolished them.  There are four states that have never had write-ins:  Nevada, South Dakota, Hawaii, and Oklahoma.

Why should we bring write-ins back? For reasons of democracy and engagement. Minor parties that have been shut out of November elections by top two would have an incentive to campaign, and bring voters to the polls, since they’d have the write-in option. Write-ins also provide a way to make sure that voters of a major party aren’t shut out when two candidates of the same party advance in the top two. (Write-ins also could serve as a check on the crazy first-round election results that top two sometimes produces.)

There’s an ongoing legal challenge to the top two alleging that it violates the rights of voters who want to cast ballot for minor party candidates in November (a hearing is currently scheduled for Jan. 15 in the State Court of Appeals in San Francisco). But why wait for the courts? The legislature could act to restore choice on the ballot, and give at least a few more voters a reason to show up.

This article was originally published on Fox and Hounds Daily

Joe Mathews is a Connecting California Columnist and Editor, Zócalo Public Square, Fellow at the Center for Social Cohesion at Arizona State University and co-author of California Crackup: How Reform Broke the Golden State and How We Can Fix It (UC Press, 2010)

Grabbing a Piece of CA

Out of state donors

 

Wolverton, Cagle Cartoons

CA Dems Battle on Key Issues

 

 

Democrats fighting logoAlthough Democrats in California are eager to celebrate major victories next Tuesday, political fault lines lie under their party.

From anti-rape legislation, to education reform, to health costs and beyond, an anticipated left-leaning consensus has failed to materialize in the Golden State. The resulting controversies, disagreements and difficulties in politicking have thrown a suprising degree of doubt on Democrats’ broader election-year routine.

National Democrats had grown accustomed to a clear, reliable dividing line between identity politics and more general issues. The distinction helped strategists protest the status quo for allies with powerful institutional interests — while microtargeting voters based on criteria like race or ethnicity, sex or gender, age, immigrant status and sexual orientation.

But the new cleavages among California liberals have upset that carefully calibrated approach, leading to close scrutiny and, in some cases, close state elections.

Yes means yes

The phenomenon became hard to ignore when the national political media picked up on sharp disagreements over California’s new “yes means yes” legislation, which requires affirmative sexual consent at universities receiving state funding. Initially, the controversial bill seemed poised to become law without incident.

Outside the state, however, commentators influential among establishment liberals and progressives found themselves at loggerheads over the implications of its strict, invasive rules. As the Los Angeles Times observed, the scuffle — which drew in figures at publications ranging from Vox to The Nation to New York magazine — escalated into “a clash between those who believe the law is too intrusive and those who believe intrusiveness is the entire point.”

For Democrats, the political point has become clear: rather than helping cement a consensus among liberal voters about how to advance legislation concerning sex, “yes means yes” has given voters a stark reason to reassess what they want out of Democrats in that regard.

Given the significance Democrats have placed on the women’s vote in recent years, and the hope they have placed in rising generations of younger voters, the news is especially unwelcome.

Teachers unions

California also gave Democrats a preview of even broader and more fundamental divides on the left.

When Judge Rolf Treu handed down the Vergara ruling, which held public teacher tenure protections to unconstitutionally infringe students’ rights, Democrats split immediately. Some, like Gov. Jerry Brown, went to bat for the teachers unions.

Others, like U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, presented the ruling as a clarion call to improve educational opportunities for all students. Because many underperforming schools and teachers have been found in districts with substantial (or majority) minority populations, some Democrats recognized they could be forced into an uncomfortable choice.

On the one hand, Democrats wished to stand publicly for the interests of minority children and families. On the other, they wanted to defend teachers unions, which have long played a decisive role in Democrats’ political success, especially in California.

These broad political challenges quickly crystallized into a pitched battle over the tenure of one man: California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Torlakson, a dedicated ally of the teachers unions. Torlakson’s incumbency has become a referendum on his staunch opposition to the Vergara decision.

His challenger, former charter schools executive Marshall Tuck, also is a Democrat — creating an intra-party race as close and bitter as any in recent memory, even though officially the post is non-partisan.

If Tuck wins, an even bigger confrontation will arise, pitting him against Brown and Attorney General Kamala Harris, his fellow Democrats, assuming both are re-elected. Brown handily is leading Republican challenger Neel Kashkari, who applauded the Vergara decision.

Harris filed the state’s appeal of Vergara on behalf of Brown. Her opponent is Republican Ronald Gold, who urged her not to appeal VergaraHe asked, “Is she with students, particularly inner city and economically disadvantaged ones, or is she with the teachers unions that support her campaign?”

Even after their expected victories next Tuesday, that’s the kind of headache California Democrats can do without.

Health insurance costs

Finally, the remarkable divides among California Democrats on Proposition 45 could establish another pattern of disagreement for liberals nationwide. It would give the California insurance commissioner the power of approval over changes in health-insurance rates — including over Covered California, the state’s implementation of Obamacare.

Prop. 45 is sponsored by the left-leaning Consumer Watchdog organization.

It comes down to this: Will Covered Care rates be set as part of the federal legislation, or by the state insurance commissioner because of Prop. 45?

The official Ballot Pamphlet from the California Secretary of State features the dueling liberal visions.

The Pro side insists: “Proposition 45 will lower healthcare costs by preventing health insurance companies from jacking up rates and passing on unreasonable costs to consumers.”

The Anti side retorts: “Prop. 45 creates even more expensive state bureaucracy, duplicating two other bureaucracies that oversee health insurance rates, causing costly confusion with other regulations and adding more red tape to the health care system.”

These political fault lines are just opening up, and are likely to get even larger.

This article was originally published on CalWatchdog.com

More Solyndra docs, subpoena “rebuffed”

From Hot Air:

Friday is always the designated “take out the trash” day in Washington and this week was no exception. After receiving increasingly heated demands from the Energy and Commerce Committee – not to mention a subpoena – for all documents related to the failed solar panel manufacturer, the White House responded. Of course, “responded” can mean different things to different people.

The White House on Friday rejected House Republicans’ subpoena for all internal communications related to the $535 million Solyndra loan guarantee, instead providing 135 pages of documents that administration officials say meet the “legitimate oversight interests” of congressional investigators.

In a letter to top Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee Friday, White House counsel Kathryn Ruemmler said the documents “do not contain evidence of favoritism to political supporters or any wrongdoing by the White House in connection with the Solyndra loan guarantee.”

So apparently the people being served with subpoenas are now in the best position to be the judge of what meets the “legitimate oversight interests” of those doing the overseeing. It’s comforting to know that when they were deciding which documents to deliver and which to sit on, none of the ones they turned over showed “evidence of favoritism to political supporters or any wrongdoing.”

(Read Full Article)