841,065 left California. Where will you find them?

Nevada had the greatest inflow from California as a share of all residents.

“Numerology” tries to find reality within various measurements of economic and real estate trends.

Buzz: Where did 841,065 ex-Californians go in 2021? That’s an outflow larger than the number of people living in Wyoming or Vermont or Alaska or North Dakota or the District of Columbia.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the latest state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau to see where that flock might have the biggest clout within their new home state.

Fuzzy math: What might be the potential influence of all these ex-Californians?


Let’s start with the raw number of relocations.

The top destination was Texas, with 107,546 moving from California to the Lone Star State in 2021. Next was Arizona at 69,432, Nevada at 62,437, Washington at 57,576, Oregon at 51,623, Florida at 37,464, Colorado at 33,648, New York at 31,335, Georgia at 28,908, Idaho at 27,193, and Utah at 23,219.

Note: Seven of those 10 states are west of the Mississippi.

Conversely, Delaware got the fewest ex-Californians, with just 116. Then came West Virginia at 368, Vermont at 1,043, North Dakota at 1,525 and South Dakota at 1,670.


Let’s compare those big relocations to state populations. We are translating migration patterns into the odds that you’d bump into an ex-Californian, class of 2021.

There’s a 50-to-1 chance that a resident of Nevada moved there from California in 2021. Yes, 62,437 California transplants vs. a state population of 3.11 million add up to one of every 50 Nevadans. No state had a greater inflow of Californians.

Next on my scorecard of ex-California influence was Idaho at 69-to-1, then Oregon at 82-to-1, Hawaii at 89-to-1, and Arizona at 104-to-1.

Or look at California’s main economic rivals. There’s 271-to-1 odds a Texan is a former Californian, Class of 2021. That’s the 15th highest. In Florida, it’s 576-to-1, No. 34.

And where’s it hardest to find this group of ex-Californians?

Tops? Delaware at 8,575-to-1 odds, then West Virginia at 4,804-to-1, Kentucky at 1,716-to-1, Alabama at 1,481-to-1, and Louisiana at 1,333-to-1.

Bottom line

When Californians leave, they often don’t leave the West.

Click here to read the full article in the Press Enterprise

Texas migrants bused to LA Union Station in latest salvo from immigration wars

The group included children, whose conditions were being assessed after riding on a bus with no food or water for 23 hours, one official said.

Mirroring recent moves by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, dozens of immigrants were bused from the Texas border area to Los Angeles and dropped off on Wednesday, June 14, at downtown’s Union Station, at the behest of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, prompting a swift rebuke from L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, who slammed the action as a “cheap” political stunt using humans as “pawns.”

All told, 42 immigrants — among them said to be eight children, including babies and toddlers — were dropped off at the depot, said Jorge-Mario Cabrera, director of communications for the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA). They were taken to St. Anthony’s Croatian Catholic Church in nearby Chinatown, where they were expected to stay the night. Los Angeles Fire Department crews responded to ensure none of them had any medical issues.

Related: Relief groups rally to help migrants bused to LA 

Cabrera said they were on the bus with no food or water for 23 hours, but their conditions were unclear late Wednesday. Police and fire officials were directing all such inquires to the mayor’s office. Bass’ office said they were in the process of documenting the group’s conditions.

In a statement, Abbott said this was the “1st bus of migrants” dropped off by Texas in Los Angeles.

“Texas’ small border towns remain overwhelmed and overrun by the thousands of people illegally crossing into Texas from Mexico because of President Biden‘s refusal to secure the border,” Abbott said in the statement. “Los Angeles is a major city that migrants seek to go to, particularly now that its city leaders approved its self-declared sanctuary city status. Our border communities are on the front lines of President Biden’s border crisis, and Texas will continue providing this much-needed relief until he steps up to do his job and secure the border.”

It was unclear if additional buses might be en route.

Bass said her office was aware of the bus’ arrival and was ready to greet the migrants when they arrived. She said her office had been preparing for such a moment, given similar recent actions across the country at the order of Republican governors.

“It is abhorrent that an American elected official is using human beings as pawns in his cheap political games,” Bass said in a statement.

“Shortly after I took office,” she added, “I directed City Departments to begin planning in the event Los Angeles was on the receiving end of a despicable stunt that Republican Governors have grown so fond of. This did not catch us off guard, nor will it intimidate us. Now, it’s time to execute our plan. Our emergency management, police, fire and other departments were able to find out about the incoming arrival while the bus was on its way and were already mobilized along with nonprofit partners before the bus arrived.”

Lindsay Toczylowski, with the Immigrant Defenders Law Center, explained lawyers are still trying to piece together what documents the migrants have and what their path to asylum will look like.

“We are meeting their hopes for safety and protection here at this welcome center, and by providing them with legal information, including a “Know Your Rights” presentation — giving them the information they need to protect themselves,” Toczylowski said.

But much about the migrants, including what information they had in hand that led them on to the bus, was not clear.

“We don’t know the information they were given to get on the bus,” Cabrera said.

Even confirming their identities appeared difficult, given little documentation.

The Los Angeles City Council last week approved a motion directing various city departments to take the steps required for Los Angeles to officially become a sanctuary city for immigrants.

In April 2022, Abbott directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management to charter buses to transport migrants from Texas to Washington, D.C. Since then, Abbott has also sent migrants to Denver, New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia. The governor’s office has said that about 20,000 migrants have been transported to cities who have passed measures embracing sanctuary status for immigrants. Abbott’s office has said that such moves have offered “much-needed relief to Texas’ overwhelmed border communities.”

Earlier Wednesday, California Attorney General Rob Bonta said his office sent public records requests to DeSantis’ office and the Florida Division of Emergency Management seeking information about the recent transport of two groups of immigrants from Florida to northern California.

Bonta said his office is investigating whether any laws were broken by Florida in shipping the three dozen migrants to Sacramento. Gov. Gavin Newsom has suggested DeSantis could potentially face kidnapping charges for transporting the migrants to California, although Florida officials have insisted the migrants went to Florida voluntarily and signed documents agreeing to the travel.

“Contrary to what some may want to think – California is also a border state but instead of demonizing asylum seekers, we focus on working with local communities to support and humanely welcome people,” said Daniel Lopez, the governor’s communications director. “Regarding the recently arrived families, the state is in close communication with the County and City of Los Angeles, and our community partners. Together, we will make sure that the children and families who arrived are safe and welcomed.”

As news spread of the latest transport, other elected officials were chiming in.

“As the author of California’s Sanctuary State in 2017 and son of an immigrant mother, I can tell you that Governor Abbott’s heartless exploitation of asylum seekers is not shocking and reflects a tremendous lack of leadership,” said Councilmember Kevin de Leon. “Callously trafficking vulnerable human beings around for cheap political points reflects a moral bankruptcy that has no place in politics and Los Angeles will not allow this repugnant display of political opportunism to undermine our commitment to ensuring that every person, regardless of origin, is treated with dignity and respect.”

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) issued a statement late Wednesday.

“Once again, Republicans exploit vulnerable migrants for cynical political gain instead of choosing to work with Democrats to fix our broken immigration system. California will not play Republican’s cowardly games and will treat asylum seekers with the dignity and humanity they deserve.”

Last week’s L.A. City Council action to set in motion sanctuary status for the city was previously OK’d by the council’s Civil Rights, Equity, Immigration, Aging and Disability Committee and the Public Safety Committee. It instructs the city attorney to prepare a draft ordinance within 60 days to prohibit “any city resources, property or personnel from being utilized for any federal immigration enforcement.”

It would also prohibit city cooperation with federal immigration authorities in “execution of their duties” as it pertains to immigration enforcement.

Councilwoman Nithya Raman, who introduced the motion with council members Eunisses Hernandez and Hugo Soto-Martínez, thanked “all the advocates, lawyers and organizations” who work to educate and protect the rights of immigrants.

“For many people in Los Angeles who have been advocating for the city to become an official sanctuary city for many years, this is a long overdue process,” Raman said.

Then-Mayor Eric Garcetti issued an executive directive in 2019 that offered protections to the immigrant community, but it lacked the permanence of a city law, according to Raman.

The council in a 12-0 vote, with council members Bob Blumenfield and John Lee absent, supported the motion Friday to create an official ordinance and codify existing protections set forth in the executive directive.

Last week, DeSantis’ administration said that three dozen migrants whom the state flew from the U.S. southern border to California on private planes all went willingly, disputing allegations by California officials that the individuals were coerced to travel under false pretenses.

The admission of responsibility — five days after the first flight touched down in California’s capital — only served to heighten tensions between DeSantis and Newsom, his frequent political sparring partner.

Two planes arrived in Sacramento, each carrying asylum-seekers mostly from Colombia and Venezuela. The individuals had been picked up in El Paso, Texas, taken to New Mexico and then put on charter flights to California’s capital of Sacramento, said Bonta. He is investigating whether any violations of criminal or civil law occurred.

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register

California Population Growth Lags

california-flagMost people think of California as the most desirable state in the union. Naturally it’s assumed that there’s heavy migration into the Golden State, with the population growing at a robust clip.  But for quite a number of years, that has not been the case.

At the bottom of this article are the just-released 50 states’ population figures for this past fiscal year in chart format. The states are listed in order from fastest to slowest growth.  Remember that the population growth of a state is the net total change considering births, deaths, migration between states and international migration.


Yes, the California population IS growing. But in spite of our state’s wonderful physical attributes, the growth is sub-par compared to the nation as a whole. In this latest 12 month period, the nation’s population grew 0.62%.  California grew 0.40%.  Stated differently, the country grew over 50% faster than California. I’ve been following this trend for years, and must report that this trend is not new.

The fastest growing state in this time frame was Nevada — growth that is heavily dependent on relocating Californians.  In a related vein, I should mention when when it comes to departing California businesses, the #2 relocation city is Reno, Nevada.  #3 is Las Vegas.  (#1 is Austin, Texas.)


Idaho is in a virtual tie with Nevada for population growth.  Both states’ population grew over 5 times faster than CA.  Almost all the Idaho growth is in the Boise area.  I think it’s fair to say that not a single Idaho arrival moved there for the weather.

The Texas population grew 1.34% — 3.35 times faster than California.  For the last 15 years, Texas population has grown more than twice as fast as California.

Overall California’s population growth ranked 25th in the nation.  Eight states actually LOST population this past year.  California is not THAT bad.

Yet. …

Click here to read the full article from the Flash Report

California Taxes, Over-Regulation Force 1,800 Businesses To Relocate

Leaving CaliforniaCalifornia – notorious for high taxes and a stifling regulatory environment – reportedly saw 1,800 businesses either relocate or disinvest from the state in 2016.

Business relocation consultant Joe Vranich wrote concerning the results of a new study he authored that he is advising clients “to leave the business-hostile state because its business climate continues to worsen,” according to Investors Business Daily.

Vranich, president of Spectrum Location Solutions LLC, noted that the 1,800 “disinvestment events” that occurred in 2016 were the most since 2008.

Additionally, 13,000 companies left the state during that nine-year period.

“Departures are understandable when year after year CEOs nationwide surveyed by Chief Executive Magazine have declared California the worst state in which to do business,” Vranich said.

“The top reason to leave the state no longer is high taxes,” he said. “The legal climate has become so difficult that companies should consider locating in jurisdictions where they will be treated fairly.”

One business regulation Vranich cited was California’s new Immigrant Worker Protection Act, which fines companies for following federal immigration law.

The consultant pointed out the law creates a dilemma for business owners: face fines either from the state or from the federal government.

“Think about it. California may penalize someone in business who is a legal citizen operating a legal business that is in compliance with every federal, state and local law, who pays state and local taxes, and who creates employment – and all that counts for nothing in the state’s eyes,” Vranich said. “Signs are that California politicians’ contempt for business will persist.”

Vranich argued that it’s not just this new law, it’s the plethora of other laws and regulations California businesses must comply with and the concern of what may be coming down the line.

The American Tort Reform Foundation said California is among the nation’s worst “Judicial Hellholes” for businesses.

According to the Vranich, three previous California governors – Gray Davis, Pete Wilson and George Deukmejian – have cited earlier versions of his business climate study to raise awareness of why companies are leaving the Golden State.

The top states where businesses are relocating, ranked in order, are: Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia and Virginia.

The top 10 urban areas gaining from the California exodus are Austin, Texas; Reno, Nevada; Las Vegas; Phoenix; Seattle; Dallas; Portland, Oregon; Denver; San Antonio; and Scottsdale, Arizona.

Among the businesses that have left the state in recent years are Toyota, Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Nestle USA, Carl’s Jr., Jamba Juice and Numira Biosciences, according to Chief Executive Magazine.

There was a net outflow of approximately 143,000 Californians leaving in 2016 over people moving in from other states, based on numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The only reason the state’s population is not decreasing overall is due to the 100,000-plus people per year immigrating into California from other countries and the birth rate exceeding the death rate in the state.

In addition to business regulations driving people from the state, The Sacramento Bee reported that California lawmakers are concerned about the wealthiest residents fleeing due to high taxes.

California has the highest top income tax bracket in the nation at 13.3 percent, and its treasury receives a disproportionate 44 percent of income tax revenues from the top 1 percent of wage earners.

Vranich said he is glad he took his own advice and moved his business from California to the Pittsburgh suburb of Cranberry Township.

“I moved for three reasons — taxes, regulations and quality-of-life,” he said. “First, I’ll have greater freedom in my business now that I’m free of California’s notorious regulatory environment and threats of frivolous lawsuits that hurt small businesses like mine.”

“Finally, we are enjoying a superior qualify-of-life here. We bought a house larger than what we had in California for about half the cost. We can afford to engage in more activities because the cost-of-living in Cranberry Township is 44 percent lower than in Irvine.”

This article was originally published by Western Journalism

Nation’s Sixth Largest Company Moving Corporate HQ from California to Texas

leaving-californiaMcKesson Corp., the nation’s largest pharmaceutical distributor, announced today that it will relocate its headquarters from San Francisco to Irving in April.

The company, which delivers prescription drugs and medical supplies, has more than 75,000 employees globally and had revenue of $208 billion last year. It ranks sixth on the Fortune 500 list, behind only Walmart, Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple and UnitedHealth Group.

With its move, McKesson will become the second-largest company by revenue to be based in North Texas, surpassing AT&T Inc. The largest, Exxon Mobil, is also headquartered in Irving.

Dallas-Fort Worth had 22 Fortune 500 company headquarters this year. That’ll grow next year with the addition of McKesson and another California transplant, San Francisco-based Core-Mark Holding Co., which is relocating to Westlake. …

Click here to read the full article from the Dallas News

Second-Largest CA Firm May Be Heading To Texas

welcome to Texas 2California could be on the brink of one of its biggest corporate defections yet with the signs that McKesson Corp. – the pharmaceutical giant that is sixth on the Fortune 500 list – is preparing to move its headquarters from San Francisco to the Dallas area.

Apple is the only California company that’s bigger than McKesson, which has 75,000-plus employees and had $198 billion in annual revenue last fiscal year.

McKesson saw its profile increase greatly in 2017 after a joint investigation by the Washington Post and CBS “60 Minutes”alleged that the company had played a central role in the national opioid epidemic by failing to report “suspicious orders involving millions of highly addictive painkillers.” Yet it’s long been considered one of the 10 biggest companies “you’ve never heard of” by the InvestorPlace website and other business trackers.

Firm sold San Francisco headquarters

Now, according to a connect-the-dots report by the San Francisco Business Times, its days in the Golden State may be numbered. McKesson officially denied it was looking to move. But the newspaper noted a number of seemingly linked developments:

  • The remarks of an official with Irving Economic Development Partnership that hinted McKesson was considering an expansion of its already “major commitment” to Irving. McKesson’s $157 million regional headquarters opened in 2016 in the business-friendly suburb of Dallas that already has the headquarters of such corporate giants as ExxonMobil, Fluor Corp and Kimberly-Clark. The state of Texas provided $9.75 million in subsidies to encourage McKesson’s decision.
  • The announcement that CEO John Hammergren will retire on March 31, 2019, and be succeeded by McKesson executive Brian Tyler, who lives in Las Colinas, a posh Irving neighborhood. His possible relocation was not directly addressed.
  • McKesson’s 2017 decision to sell its San Francisco headquarters for more than $300 million in favor of an arrangement in which it leased offices at the facility.

Given how much cheaper it usually is for a company to own rather than lease a large headquarters, the sale looks in retrospect like a warning sign to city leaders that their richest company was preparing to move.

McKesson would be hardest hit by new ‘homeless tax’

Nonetheless, besides Mayor London Breed, the city’s political establishment offered relatively little pushback to a successful tax measure on San Francisco’s Nov. 6 ballot that will take its single biggest toll on McKesson – at least if the company stays in the city.

To fund increased programs for the homeless, Measure C imposes a gross receipts tax on San Francisco-based companies which have $50 million or more in annual revenue. With $198 billion in fiscal 2017, McKesson is by far the highest-grossing San Francisco-based firm. Measure C is expected to generate $300 million a year, boosting the $380 million that City Hall now spends on homelessness.

If McKesson does leave, it will join the more than 1,700 companies whose decisions to abandon the Golden State have been documented since 2008. The traditional corporate complaints about California having high taxes and heavy regulations have been expanded in recent years to include concerns about the high cost of housing making it difficult to attract and retain workers.

Among the most prominent departures: Toyota moved its U.S. headquarters from Torrance to the Dallas suburb of Plano; energy giant Occidental Petroleum moved its headquarters from Los Angeles to Houston; and the Nestle USA food conglomerate moved its headquarters from Glendale to Rosslyn, Virginia, in the Washington suburbs.

This article was originally published by CalWatchdog.com

Did California save Ted Cruz?

ap_ted-cruz_ap-photo-3-640x426Chuck DeVore is just one of thousands of former Californians who have moved to Texas. But DeVore is unique. Not only did he serve in the California Assembly, but he remains heavily engaged in policy issues as Vice President of National Initiatives at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, a free market think tank based in Austin.

DeVore is a frequent guest on national television shows to speak on economic issues, including how progressive policies suppress economic growth. Moreover, he has firsthand experience with the movement of people and money between the two economic titans, California and Texas.

The migration of businesses from California to Texas is well-documented. Big names, like Charles Schwab, Campbell’s Soup, Burger King, Waste Management and other billion-dollar businesses severed their California connections for Lone Star liberty. In fact, it was entertaining to watch the sparring between then-Texas Governor Rick Perry — who frequented California to poach businesses from California — and the Golden State’s own Jerry Brown who tried to portray Texas as hick-country governed by a buffoon.

More than just businesses, it is people who have left California in numbers significantly larger than those coming in from other states. From 2007 to 2016, California has experienced net domestic out-migration of a million citizens, and the number-one destination? You guessed it. Texas. Of course, that doesn’t mean that California has lost population, in fact it has gained. But those gains have come from immigration – both documented and otherwise — and new births.

To read the entire column, please click here.

Say it ain’t so: Is Texas turning into California?

Laffer1When economist James Gaines gave a talk recently about the economy and the real estate market, his biggest audience response came from an unexpected topic.

Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, told hundreds of local real estate agents what to expect in the years ahead regarding the state’s population growth and demographic changes.

“Do you know what Texas looks like in 30 years?” Gaines asked the audience.

“California,” he offered as the whole ballroom of folks groaned and rolled their eyes.

Nothing gets a bunch of Texans more riled up than to tell them they are turning into California.

“I have used that line a number of times and get the same reaction,” Gaines said. “People are always asking where are we going and what will we look like.

“I’m serious about it,” he said. “The problems, the issues, politically, socially, economically, land use, housing resources — go down and tick off the issues. We are going down the same path.”

Gaines said the rapid growth of jobs, population and wealth that California has seen over the past few decades is similar to what Texas is now experiencing. That means the state faces the same opportunities and increasing challenges. …

Click here to read the full article from the Dallas News

Californians fed up with housing costs and taxes are fleeing state in big numbers

Californians may still love the beautiful weather and beaches, but more and more they are fed up with the high housing costs and taxes and deciding to flee to lower-cost states such as NevadaArizona and Texas.

“There’s nowhere in the United States that you can find better weather than here,” said Dave Senser, who lives on a fixed income near San Luis Obispo, California, and now plans to move to Las Vegas. “Rents here are crazy, if you can find a place, and they’re going to tax us to death. That’s what it feels like. At least in Nevada they don’t have a state income tax. And every little bit helps.”

Senser, 65, who previously lived in the east San Francisco Bay region, said housing costs and gas prices are “significantly lower in Las Vegas. The government in the state of California isn’t helping people like myself. That’s why people are running out of this state now.”

Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey data, “lower income Californians are the ones who are leaving, not higher income,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of research and consulting firm Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. …

Click here to read the full article from CNBC

Appeals Court Upholds Texas Ban On Sanctuary Cities

A federal appeals court Tuesday upheld the bulk of Texas’ crackdown on “sanctuary cities” in a victory for the Trump administration as part of its aggressive fight against measures seen as protecting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally.

The ruling by a three-judge panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans allows Texas to enforce what critics call the toughest state-level immigration measure since Arizona passed what critics called a “Show Me Your Papers” law in 2010.

The law allows police officers to ask people during routine stops whether they’re in the U.S. legally and threatens sheriffs with jail time for not cooperating with federal immigration authorities.

The ruling comes a week after the U.S. Justice Department — which had joined Texas in defending the law known as Senate Bill 4 — sued California over state laws aimed at protecting immigrants.

“Dangerous criminals shouldn’t be allowed back into our communities to possibly commit more crimes,” Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in response to the decision. …

Click here to read the full article from CBS