North County Democrat’s primary election mailer seeks to boost desired GOP opponent for November
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Several California congressional districts always come up in discussions about control of the House of Representatives. The 49th District represented by Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, is one of them.
Regardless of whether the district straddling the San Diego-Orange county line ends up being pivotal in November, the election there promises to be a close one.
Seeking his third term, Levin seemingly has an unencumbered path to the fall general election in the slightly Democratic-leaning district, allowing him to marshal his resources and focus strategy on his eventual Republican opponent. Meanwhile, a handful of Republicans are slugging it out to advance out of Tuesday’s primary.
That’s the good news for Levin. The other news is he’ll have to face one of a few robust GOP challengers during an election year in which so many dynamics are trending in the Republican Party’s favor. That’s a change from his first two elections, when the political climate had the wind at his back.
Not only that, the district has been redrawn to adjust to population changes reflected in the once-a-decade census, adding some new voters he hasn’t represented and taking away some he has.
“There certainly is peril that Mike Levin faces in this district,” said Thad Kousser, chair of the UC San Diego political science department.
Having said that, Kousser isn’t so sure the GOP effort to retake the House majority “hinges on this district.” In other words, if Levin loses, that will be indicative of a big Republican win nationwide on Nov. 8, according to Kousser.
Levin isn’t just waiting for the fall campaign. He’s become a presence in the primary — as a player in the battle among GOP candidates.
The most prominent Republicans are three who hold or have held elective office: Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett of Dana Point, former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Brian Maryott — who lost to Levin in 2020 — and Oceanside City Councilmember Christopher Rodriguez.
A mailer supporting Levin noted Rodriguez favors the repeal of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that legalized abortion across the country. With the Supreme Court poised to overturn Roe, the issue of protecting abortion rights has become a potentially potent one for Democrats in this election — particularly in purple swing districts like the 49th.
The tactics behind such a mailer are two-fold: It looks like a hit on an anti-abortion candidate to Democrats, while it might encourage conservative voters to back Rodriguez.
“This is the emerging part of the Democratic playbook,” Kousser said. “. . . We’ve seen this in other races where a strong Democrat is trying to pick the weakest Republican candidate.”
Maybe there’s polling that suggests Rodriguez is the better target for Levin in November. But the Oceanside council member is a Latino Marine veteran in a district that includes the Camp Pendleton Marine base and is home to a lot of veterans and Latinos.
Complaints that such maneuvers amount to meddling in the other party’s contest tend to fall flat these days. Back when there were separate Republican and Democratic primaries, making cross-party forays generated more controversy.
But here, Levin is running in the primary against not just the one little-known Democrat, but the Republicans as well. In California’s nonpartisan primary system, the candidates are on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party affiliation.
Elections such as this have much of the same feel of the old, separate primaries. In other districts that are dominated by Democratic or Republican voters, it’s not unusual for the top two finishers to be members of the same party.
Not only are congressional politics trending Republican, Kousser said there is a “stronger set of Republican challengers across the state this year.”
Click here to read the full article in The San Diego Union Tribune
The NAZI LEVIN VOTED TO GIVE “FREE HEALTHCARE TO ILLEGALS AND IS MAKING THE CITIZENS OF CALIFORNIA PAY FOR IT WITH HIGH DEDUCTIBLES AND HIGH OUT OF COSTS EXPENSES…THIS IS WHAT THE NAZI LEVIN HAS VOTED FOR EVERY YEAR HE HAS BEEN IN OFFICE…NOW HE WANTS TO FORGIVE STUDENT LOANS, SCREW EVERYONE ELSE WHO PAID THEIRS OFF….VOTE THIS PIECE OF SHIT NAZI OUT OF OFFICE……HE IS NOTHING BUT TRASH
Lyin’ Mike Levin says he’s “doing everything he can” to lower gas prices – and then launches into another of his incessant get rid of fossil fuels shtiks………