My title is, “How Trump’s Win Might Spark CA Republican Revival.” The key word is “might.” This statement is counterintuitive, given the hostility to him among many GOP ranks here. But bear with me.
There are two conditions: Taking immigration off the table and a Reaganesque economic boom.
First, immigration. But isn’t he nasty toward Mexicans and other immigrants? Hasn’t he offended Latinos so much they’ll never become Republicans?
The problem might – again, might – be that neither party has come up with a sensible policy on immigration, the failed attempts going back 30 years. A lot of people point out how President Reagan signed the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, which amnestied 3 million illegal aliens. Except the “Control” part of the Act never was implemented. So the amnesty part brought in millions more, increasing the number today to something like 11 million illegals.
A lot of these illegals – yes, I’m going to keep using the word – have become part of our community. An accountant friend of mine was talking with some of the Latinas at the construction company where he works. The ladies all voted for Hillary because they didn’t want their friends and neighbors deported. That’s understandable.
But what if Trump: 1) Builds the wall – for real. Which I think he will do. 2) Sharply restricts new immigration. 3) Makes a Trumpian “deal” on those here for a long time. Recent arrivals would have to leave. Those overstaying visas would have to leave. That would take care of half or so of the 11 million. But the other half would have some long-term path to citizenship, provided they pay back taxes and fill out all the paperwork.
If such a “deal” becomes real, the key will be effectively restricting new immigration. But if the “deal” happens, and really works, it will take the whole immigration issue off the table. Memories of Proposition 187, the illegals screening initiative thrown out by courts, will begin to fade, along with hatred of the California Republicans who pushed it. After all, a Republican president will have “solved” the immigration problem.
Second, Trump will have to boom the economy. He and the Republican Congress then would get credit for the prosperity lifting all boats, and all barcos. That will filter out here to California Latinos.
A 2012 Pew Research Center study found that Latinos still are moving up the upward mobility ladder that long has brought immigrants into the middle class: “Despite difficult economic times, in the long trajectory of their lives Latinos see improved standards of living when compared with their parents and expect their children’s standard of living to be even better. Two-thirds (67 percent) of Latinos (compared with 61 percent of the general public) say their standard of living is better than that of their parents when their parents were the age they are now.” It’s the old story of American prosperity.
Better yet, the Trump immigration cutoff would accelerate the assimilation. New immigrants suppress wages because the increased supply of anything brings about greater price competition. If new immigration is sharply reduced, then those already here would move faster up the upward mobility ladder.
As correctly was said of open immigration by legendary United Farm Workers co-founder Cesar Chavez, who has a state holiday in his honor, “As long as we have a poor country bordering California, it’s going to be very difficult to win strikes as strikes are won normally by other unions with the employer … . Now, there’s no way to defend against that kind of strikebreaking.” Except a wall.
That’s why the biggest defenders today of open borders are not immigrant groups, but big farms and other businesses that want to boost profits with cheap labor.
By contrast, when people gain upward mobility, they are less likely to seek the government benefits promoted by the Democratic Party and more likely to yearn for the tax cuts and business promotion championed by the Republican Party. That’s even more true now that the new president and party leader will be a famous billionaire.
So, if California Republicans want to get back in the game, they should stick to their pro-business, small-government principles.
Of course, I could be all washed up. Maybe I have no idea what I’m talking about. Maybe there will be no economic recovery no matter what Trump does. Maybe ethnic resentments are too high. Maybe.
But Trump might (might!) have put an oxygen mask on the wheezing body of the California Grand Old and Decrepit Party. They just need to breathe deeply.
Thirty-year California columnist John Seiler now writes freelance. His email:writejohnseiler@gmail.com
I wonder what John’s circle of GOP friends say when shown that The Donald garnered more Hispanic votes than did either McCain or Romney?
And, it is important to note that another plank in The Donald’s Immigration Reform proposal is to actually bring enforcement actions against employers who have been breaking Federal Law by employing those not eligible to work in the USA under the provisions of the 1986 Act.
Imposing eVerify upon all employers/employees would go a long way to stopping this (along with a secure border) over-night.
Why should any illegal be allowed to stay and become a citizen? A. It is giving people a reward for breaking the law. Does this mean you want to reward muggers and burglars also? B. It is a slap in the face of everyone that has spent years getting here legally. The first thing he should do after taking office is call ICE and tell them to start the deportations. Under Obama we have had an average of 3500 new regulations every year. That is almost 10 each day. The second thing he should do is have a group start getting them removed at leased 10 a week.
Yeah NO we don’t have real republican in California. I demand this dictatorship end. I have enough on Brown, Harris, Feinstein, Pelosi to put them away for life. Sorry Frank your liberal views are not needed. Deportation will be in huge numbers. As a FARMER I will DEMAND It.
They need to implement e-verify as well and heavily enforce it. This way illegals would leave on their own since they could not get a job.
“the Trump immigration cutoff would accelerate the assimilation”
No, assimilation will not accelerate because the entrenched racialist interests will be teaching all those immigrants in their own languages instead of English. They will also be telling them how their own countries, histories, political systems and cultures are superior to evil Western (white European) countries, histories, political systems, and cultures. Marxism will continue to flourish in California for decades to come because the Republicans here sold out their principles a long time ago.
Listen –my wife is Japanese and has a green card and years ago I had to go through hell sponsoring her and that even with 6 month baby girl born here on my lap talking to the person interviewing us–good thing I had the means to get her approved or she would have to have gone back to Japan and leave me to go with her or stay here alone with my child–she went through it all legally–so do not make ANY excuses for ILLEGALS to be here–they need to be deported and that means all of them no matter what nationality they are and we need to get rid of bald head brown and his rotten cohorts–Gray Davis was recalled for nothing compared to what that damn defrocked son of a bitch has done !!!
my wife is Japanese and has a green card ???? If she is your wife…she doesn’t need a Green Card, if you are an American
The author, John Seller, completely misses the abolishment of the “Family Re-unification act”, and the twisting of the 14th Amendment recognizing enfranchisement of 1800s freedmen and their descendents, being extended to newborn babies not under jurisdiction of federal law, because their illegal alien parents were not under jusidiction when they,”dropped anchor”.
Further, the moratorium on immigration must be two generational in duration, so as to eradicate any living memory of foriegn alliegance in the legally resident families.