These 10 California Elections Might Decide Partisan Control of U.S. House in 2024

Whether Democrats or Republicans control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025 is a toss-up, election analysts say, with a handful of California incumbents’ seats on the line. The state had some of the closest House races in the nation in 2022, ultimately delivering Republicans a slim majority and Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, the speaker’s gavel. The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections and Elections Daily rank districts by partisan advantage. The nonpartisan forecasters rate close elections as “toss-up,” “leaning” or “likely” for a Democrat or Republican. Projections will probably shift as more details about 2024 races emerge. Many contenders have already announced their intent to run, or at least filed the required paperwork. Prospective candidates have until mid-December to file. These are 10 House races to watch in California:

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3rd Congressional District Most analysts believe freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, will keep his seat in 2024, representing a district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley. 40th Congressional District Rep. Young Kim, R-La Habra, will win in 2024, forecasters say. The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties. Two Democrats have announced they will challenge Kim, who has been in Congress since 2021. LEANS REPUBLICAN 41st Congressional District Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, has an advantage, three analysts predict. The Cook Political Report rates the Riverside County district as a toss-up for the Republican, who has served since 1993. Redistricting landed Palm Springs, a liberal and LGBTQ stronghold, in the 41st. Calvert had his closest House race in over a decade in 2022, edging out Democrat Will Rollins by less than 4 percentage points. The Republican’s previous history against LGBTQ rights, coupled with Rollins’ identity and positions, might have contributed to the closeness. Now Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, is in for a 2024 rematch. Two more Democrats have so far announced their candidacies. 45th Congressional District Rep. Michelle Park Steel, R-Seal Beach, will edge out an opponent, all forecasters think. Four Democrats have already entered the race for the 41st, which takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties. Steel was first elected to the House in 2020. TOSS-UP 13th Congressional District Home to the second-closest House race in 2022, the 13th is expected to be hotly contested again. Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, edged out former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, by fewer than 600 votes. Gray hasn’t announced his 2024 candidacy but has filed the paperwork to run. Three other Democrats so far have said they would contest Duarte, a first-time candidate last year. The district, which holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points. It has more registered Democrats than Republicans. 22nd Congressional District Analysts are split on whether on Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, can keep his seat. Some give him a slight edge over a Democratic challenger. He’ll be in for a rematch with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, whom Valadao beat by a 3% margin in 2022. The 22nd, which has more Democrats than Republicans, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. Valadao, who has been in the House for about a decade, survived tough elections before: He lost and regained his House seat on slim margins between 2018 and 2020. 27th Congressional District It looks like a toss-up for Rep. Mike Garcia, R-San Clarita, most experts say. Garcia, who has represented northern Los Angeles County in the House since 2020, will face at least two Democrats in 2024. Garcia became the first California Republican in two decades to flip a district represented by a Democrat; he won a special election in 2020 after former Rep. Katie Hill resigned amid scandal over a relationship with her staffer. LEANS DEMOCRATIC 47th Congressional District Forecasters are divided on whether Democrats have a clear advantage in the district that Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is vacating to run for Senate. Porter is among a handful of House Democrats competing to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein. The 2024 field for the Orange County district has drawn at least 10 candidates. Scott Baugh, an attorney, is running in the district again as a Republican. Among Democrats, State Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, garnered Porter’s endorsement. He was arrested in May for driving under the influence.


9th Congressional District This Stockton-anchored district held by Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, is likely, rather than safely, Democratic, three analysis organizations think. Harder unseated a four-term Republican to win a seat in 2018. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, campaigned last week for a GOP challenger, Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln. Ripon pastor Brett Dood also said he would run as a Republican.

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