More proof California—unlike the rest of the nation—is going into a recession. High taxes, bad schools, roads and regulations are taking a toll on the people of the State—those productive people that have not already fled the State. Housing costs even in the Bay Area are beginning to drop. Taxes and government control of the economy ha gone up—and you can see the results of productive people forced to leave the State in the data.
“California’s GDP grew at a 2.7% annual pace in the first quarter, ranking 29th among the states and below the comparable 3.1% pace for the nation. West Virginia was No. 1, with 5.2% growth.
It’s a contrast to 2013-2017, when California growth averaged 4% yearly — the fastest pace in the nation.”
West Virginia is number one and we are #29 in growth? That is the result of a one Party State. The only question now is whether the results of the 2020 November election will throw the State into a recession or a depression. Continue one Party rule in Sacramento, higher taxes, more bonded debt—we can not afford to continue this suicide mission of the Left. The only winner? U-Haul.
Bubble Watch: California economy goes from national leader to subpar
California’s GDP grew at a 2.7% annual pace in the first quarter, ranking 29th among the states.
By Jonathan Lansner, Orange County Register, 7/31/19
“Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or housing market troubles ahead.
Buzz: California economic growth has cooled to sub-par performance after being a national leader.
Source: State Gross Domestic Product reports by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The trend
California’s GDP grew at a 2.7% annual pace in the first quarter, ranking 29th among the states and below the comparable 3.1% pace for the nation. West Virginia was No. 1, with 5.2% growth.
It’s a contrast to 2013-2017, when California growth averaged 4% yearly — the fastest pace in the nation.
The dissection
GDP is perhaps the broadest measure of business output and its annualized growth rate is carefully watched to detect the overall momentum of a region’s economy.
Don’t forget GDP shows just how huge the state economy is. California is producing $2.7 trillion a year of goods and services, as of March 31. That’s $1 trillion more than the No. 2 state, Texas. It’s a sum equal to the output of the 26 smallest state economies combined. And it’s 15% of the entire nation’s GDP.
But size isn’t everything.
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Of late, California has seen business growth slow. How one gauges this cooling can be tied to one’s view of life.
If you’re the glass-half-full type, you’ll note the length of California’s growth: The state’s GDP has increased for 20 consecutive quarters, tied with Oregon for the nation’s longest “winning” streak.
You’ll also see California’s first-quarter growth is an improvement over a slower second half of 2018: 1.2% growth in the third quarter and 2.2% in the fourth quarter.
But if you’re the glass-half-empty personality, you’ll complain that subpar growth is nothing new. First-quarter performance was equal to California 2018’s average pace: 2.7% growth that ranked 26th among the states. The state of Washington was tops last year at 6%.
And you’ll see this economic lethargy adding up: California’s growth has trailed the nation in three of the last five quarters. This is the first 15-month period since 2012 in which U.S. growth outpaced California.
How bubbly?
On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … THREE BUBBLES!
It’s hard to argue that slower ANYTHING is not a warning sign of some sorts. And California has various challenges — whether it be its “anti-business” vibe as critics decry or the Trump White House’s “America First” policies that are unfriendly to the state’s deep ties to global business opportunities.
Yet there’s a big statistical difference between today’s slower growth … and no growth or a recessionary decline.
Psychologically, however, coming off boom times can be difficult. It can be hard going from easy money to more traditional sweat-for-every-dollar conditions.
So slower growth is a puzzle: How does everyone — from corporate chiefs to consumers — handle their emotions in response to a cooler business climate? Do they deftly adapt; or make a panic pullback; or act somewhere in between?
PS: How did California arch-rival Texas do? First-quarter GDP growth: 5.1%, No. 2 nationally. Last year: 4.2%, fourth-best. In 2013-2017: averaged 2.7%, ninth-best.
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