In spite of the energy and enthusiasm that marked the signature-gathering phase of the effort to recall California’s clown car occupant of a Governor Gavin Newsom, there was a distinct, noticeable and troubling drop in both after the recall qualified for the ballot.
Happily, that all changed on July 13th when syndicated radio host Larry Elder announced his candidacy. The adrenaline shot to the GOP electorate was immediate and palpable. They had been faced with a field of candidates containing a few who could – with some imagination – be seen as potential governors but found them uninspiring to say the last.
Elder changed all that. Before he announced, polling on the “yes/no” recall ballot question showed the “yes” votes in the mid-30s. Almost immediately after Elder’s entry, the polls changed, with the latest showing the “yes” on recall votes at 43% – with “no” at 48%, which given the survey’s “margin of error” means the election is a dead-heat.
Elder received equally good news from the “candidate” portion of the ballot (voters will have two separate choices – first a “yes or no” on recalling Governor Nuisance, then a list of candidates to choose from). The first survey after his announcement showed him 10% ahead of any other candidate, a very recent one showed him 12% ahead. The recall election is a “first past the post” affair, with the candidate receiving the most votes elected, no matter how large or small the candidate’s vote percentage. This works strongly in Elder’s favor – as his program was syndicated in the 5 largest markets in California.
The GOP field is a varied one, the most notable candidate being John Cox, the GOP’s 2018 nominee against Nuisance, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assemblyman Kevin Kiley and Caitlin Jenner. Jenner initially made a splash, but she is a one-trick pony, and her 15 minutes of fame is over. Cox lost to Nuisance by 30% in 2018. Kiley is a strong conservative, youngish and articulate. He will be a strong statewide candidate in the future – not now. Elder’s radio program had more Republicans as listeners in any one hour than there are in Kiley’s entire Northern California Assembly district. He hopefully will eventually do the right thing – pun intended – and endorse Elder.
Which brings us to Faulconer, the GOP establishment’s favorite and for whom they are about to do permanent damage to the party by forcing an official endorsement down the throats of activists. Faulconer was a disaster as Mayor of San Diego. When he took office Republicans were close to a majority on the San Diego City Council. When he left there was exactly one Republican left. During his term of office, the GOP hemorrhaged registration. This is the record the poohbahs of the state GOP think merits promotion.
But wait, there’s more. On June 7, 2016, the night he was re-elected as mayor and Donald Trump received over 75% of the California GOP primary vote, Faulconer let the mask drop, saying, “I could never vote for Trump. His divisive rhetoric is unacceptable, and I just could never support him.” He has been furiously back-peddling since announcing for the recall, even claiming that he voted for Trump last year. If you believe him, I have a bridge for sale. His claim doesn’t pass the smell test but does present indisputable proof that Faulconer was either lying in 2016 or decided in 2020 that his personal political advancement was more important than deeply held principles. Either reason, and they are the only two realistic possibilities, should be disqualifying for GOP voters.
Yet this is the candidate for whom the California GOP has been trying to rig an endorsement vote later this week. Elder’s strength among the grassroots may yet short-circuit that insanity, but the financial corporatist powers-that-be who pull the state party’s strings are going all out to make Faulconer the officially endorsed candidate. Doing so vividly shows a death wish among those supposedly “guiding” the state Party. Someone, please send them the number for the suicide hotline.
There is zero reason or rationale to officially endorse a candidate. Endorsing one candidate will anger supporters of the non-endorsed candidates while seriously depressing the “yes” on recall vote. Remember that if the “yes” votes don’t get to 50% plus one, candidates’ votes aren’t even tallied. The panjandrums of the party forcing a candidate on the grassroots would permanently fracture the party even more so than it already is. In fact, that may well be what some of the shadow financiers of the party hope for. Finally, drive those pesky deplorable activists out of the party and leave it to the “enlightened,” the Sacramento lobbyists and those who think anyone to the right of Lynn Cheney is an extremist.
Here’s some free advice to whoever is pushing the state party into this septic tank. STOP. Why do this? Why not let California’s registered Republicans make their own choice? There is NO upside. I’d feel the exact same way if Elder were the kingmakers’ choice. There is NO reason to do this other than to slavishly follow the dictates of your financial masters.
You are spending Republican money and Republican energy to force down your loyalists’ throats a candidate who thought Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Donald Trump. And you think the Republican rank and file will vote for such a wannabe Quisling because you say so? REALLY? The current leadership of the California GOP is living proof of Lord Acton’s saying that “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Or perhaps more accurately, Euripides’ wisdom that “whom the gods would destroy they first make mad.”
This is one of the few columns I’ve ever written that I hope is proven wrong. I double-dog dare you, state GOP poohbahs, prove me wrong. Put your energy – whatever is left in the cadaver of the state party – into promoting a “yes” on recall vote. If the “yes” votes don’t prevail, all the effort gathering over 2,100,000 signatures to qualify the recall will have been for naught. A novel concept would be ensuring the maximum number of “yes” votes, then trusting your voters to make their own choice as to the replacement candidate.
That would be principled leadership. I won’t hold my breath.
Bill Saracino is a member of the Editorial Board of CA Political Review.
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