Republican faces steep odds in blue state, political observers say
There’s a scenario in which Chad Bianco becomes California’s next governor, but it involves a seismograph, joked a veteran GOP political consultant.
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“An earthquake along the San Andreas Fault that would drop all the coastal counties into the sea, might make him competitive,” Mike Madrid said via email. “Might.”
Bianco, Riverside County’s controversial and outspoken Republican sheriff, is pondering a 2026 gubernatorial bid. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom can’t run again due to term limits, and potential successors are already launching campaigns and raising money.
The sheriff, whose term ends in 2028, hasn’t filed paperwork to run for governor, state records show. On the Democratic side, the field includes former state Senate President pro Tempore Toni Atkins; Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis; State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former State Controller Betty Yee.
Bianco, who did not respond to a requests for comment, has spoken with a Sacramento-based political and public affairs consultant as he weighs a 2026 bid.
A “Draft Bianco” coalition has emerged to spur a Bianco run. It’s unclear whether the coalition is directly connected to Bianco. A coalition spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
“We need a strong, capable candidate to run for Governor in 2026 and present a real alternative for California voters,” former GOP state Sen. Dennis Hollingsworth said in a coalition news release.
“Sheriff Bianco has served Riverside County with the utmost integrity and has always kept our communities safe,” added Hollingsworth, who represented southwest Riverside County in the senate from 2002 to 2010.
“In the face of Sacramento’s failures on issues like crime and homelessness, Sheriff Bianco’s leadership has been an example for other communities to follow across the state.”
The coalition listed a range of elected officials from across California as supporting a Bianco gubernatorial campaign. They include Rep. Ken Calvert and Assemblymember Bill Essayli, both R-Corona; Assemblymember Phillip Chen, R-Brea; Orange County Sheriff Don Barnes; San Bernardino County Sheriff Shannon Dicus and GOP state Sen. Scott Wilk, who represents parts of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties.
To become California’s first Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger held the job in the early and mid-2000s, Bianco, as well as any other GOP candidate, would have to overcome significant roadblocks.
Forty-seven percent of California voters are registered Democrats, compared to 24% in the state who are Republicans. That means any GOP candidate needs independent and Democratic crossover votes to win. With their large populations, the deep blue cities of Los Angeles and San Francisco hold considerable sway in statewide elections — hence Madrid’s comment.
Former president Donald Trump is largely unpopular in California. Known for a blunt speaking style and a willingness to mix it up with critics, Bianco endorsed Trump’s 2024 presidential bid, quipping in a social media post: “I think it’s time we put a felon in the White House.”
Bianco also would face challenges unique to him.
He was a dues-paying member in 2014 of the far-right Oath Keepers militia. “I don’t even remember it,” the sheriff said in 2021.
He’s also made controversial comments about the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, did not require his employees to be vaccinated and doubted the effectiveness of COVID vaccines while taking an “anti-vax for Chad” stance.
“That doesn’t mean that I’m anti-vax for someone else that feels they may need it or that does need it at high-risk categories or even if it just makes you feel better,” Bianco said in 2021.
Bianco’s management of the Sheriff’s Department also could face scrutiny if he runs for governor.
A former correctional deputy faces charges of transporting 104 pounds of fentanyl pills in his private car, while another correctional deputy pleaded guilty in February to extorting sex acts from women on home detention.
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