In the nearly two weeks since President Joe Biden’s catastrophic performance in a televised debate, the Democratic freakout over whether he can continue as their presumptive presidential nominee has not abated.
Even as Biden insists that he is committed to finishing out the race, speculation continues among the party faithful and political observers over who might be best positioned to defeat Republican former President Donald Trump instead. Among those frequently cited is California’s own Gov. Gavin Newsom, a dedicated Biden surrogate who recently completed a tour on the president’s behalf through Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
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While Newsom says he’s standing firmly behind Biden’s re-election and has long publicly denied any presidential ambitions, this chaotic political moment is elevating the national profile that Newsom has spent years cultivating — including through a Fox News debate last fall against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and a heretofore unsuccessful bid for a constitutional amendment on gun control.
CalMatters spoke with political consultants and experts — veterans of California elections, swing state organizing and national campaigns — about Newsom’s prospects as a presidential contender. They largely agreed that he was extremely unlikely to become the Democratic nominee this year even if Biden ultimately withdraws, with Vice President Kamala Harris waiting in the wings, but that Newsom could be a strong candidate in the 2028 primary because of his progressive bona fides and extensive political network.
The biggest question mark: Can a California Democrat, the liberal caricature that has been a political punching bag for decades, win a presidential election? If the last eight years have taught us anything, it’s that the conventional wisdom may no longer apply.
💪 NEWSOM ASSETS
1. He’s a dynamic campaigner
Newsom’s classic good looks and charisma have always bolstered his political star power. (Never forget the infamous “New Kennedys” profile in Harper’s Bazaar in 2004, shortly after he became mayor of San Francisco.) But several observers said they were particularly impressed by how he has navigated a tough situation as a Biden surrogate over the past two weeks, defending the president on television immediately after the debate and then rallying Democratic crowds on the campaign trail.
“I don’t want to hurt him by saying this, but he’s a natural politician,” said Bob Shrum, director of the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future and an adviser on numerous presidential campaigns, including Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
Newsom’s defense of the Democratic position — even in direct confrontation with conservative opponents and sometimes out ahead of his own party — gives him the image of a fighter, which could appeal to liberal voters looking for a new leader.
“The reason Gavin gets talked about is how dynamic he is, how polished he is in terms of talking about politics and policy,” said Roger Salazar, a Democratic communications consultant who served as a spokesperson on Gore’s 2000 campaign and is a Newsom appointee to a California commission for off-road vehicle recreation. “He’s very strong on the stump and he doesn’t back down.”
It also carries potential benefits behind the scenes, ingratiating Newsom to the Democratic establishment that could clear a path for his future plans.
“Being the loyal lieutenant and not appearing too ambitious will serve him to maybe buy some goodwill and become a legitimate heir apparent,” said Jason Cabel Roe, a longtime GOP strategist in Michigan and former deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney’s presidential bid in 2007.
2. He has a growing national fundraising base
Newsom is a prolific fundraiser with experience building a war chest to boost himself and other Democrats nationally. It is one of his greatest strengths, rivaling any senator or governor who may be considering their own campaign for president, said Rose Kapolczynski, a longtime Democratic strategist working with Close the Gap California to elect more women legislators.
“He’s raised tens of millions of dollars for his own campaigns and ballot measures. He’s been an effective fundraising surrogate for Biden and others. And that’s given him the opportunity to build a national fundraising network,” Kapolczynski said. “He has a strong small donor network and he’s certainly well-known to major donors across the country.”
Newsom’s three federal committees, branded as the Campaign for Democracy, have raised $24 million for direct contributions to candidates, ad spending and more since launching in March last year, according to data from the Federal Elections Committee. Slightly more than half of that was transferred from his 2022 gubernatorial campaign.
Newsom has been groomed for years for political life all the way to the presidency, fueled by key Democratic players like Jerry Brown, Willie Brown, Nancy Pelosi and big money donors. He is a consummate politician. He doesn’t know anything about economics or foreign policy but would bring to this country another hard-line near-socialist viewpoint (notwithstanding he will campaign as a moderate, he is definitely not one). Our only salvation is that despite gallavanting around from State to State trying to put his mug out front and center, he is associated indelibly with California, and most of the country does not like California politics.
Many people would vote for the man in the moon rather than Newsom.