- Former President Trump has little hope of winning California, the poll found.
- Just 5% of those polled were undecided.
- The vice president leads Trump among California Latinos but by a smaller margin than President Biden won by four years ago.
Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a commanding lead over former President Trump in California, but Trump’s gains among the state’s Latino voters highlight a troubling sign for Democrats at the national level, according to a new poll.
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Harris’ 57%-35% overall lead in California over Trump is little changed from her August margin of 59% to 34%, according to the survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times.
The state’s streak of voting Democratic in every presidential election since 1988, when President George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis, is unlikely to be broken. Its 54 electoral votes — the largest prize on election day — are all but certain to go to Harris.
Harris’ lead among Latinos in the state is similar to her overall margin, 54% to 35%. But that represents a sharp decline from President Biden’s margin in 2020, when exit polls showed he beat Trump 75% to 23% among California Latinos.
That new poll jibes with other national and swing state surveys that show an erosion in Democratic support from a group of voters who have been a core segment of the party’s coalition in recent decades. That shift began in 2020, when Biden lost ground among Latino voters compared with Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016.
Harris leads Trump by an average of 2 to 3 percentage points in national polls, but the race for electoral votes is seen as a toss-up.
Two of the seven swing states — Arizona and Nevada — have large Latino populations that are likely to be decisive. Latino voters could also make a difference in other battleground states where their numbers are smaller — such as Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — given that polls show exceedingly close races.
California is a lost cause as var as common sense conservatives go. However it is heartwarming to see minorities that have been targeted by the Left with false promises waking up to the facts.