LOS ANGELES (AP) — California’s reputation as a hothouse of progressive politics is being tested in a string of U.S. House contests that are again expected to play into which party controls the chamber next year.
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Despite its distinction as a liberal protectorate, both parties see races in the nation’s most populous state as crucial battlegrounds and are pumping millions of dollars into campaigns that stretch from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond groves and vineyards of the Central Valley farm belt.
Two years ago the state played a pivotal role in securing the gavel for Republicans. Now only a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacancies.
California has 52 House seats — more than any other state — and 10 are considered in play. About half of those are viewed as toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, holding every statewide office and outnumbering registered Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin statewide. But Republicans retain pockets of strength and picked up four House seats in 2020.
The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by Joe Biden in 2020. Overall, Republicans hold just 12 of the state’s House seats.
At least on paper, Democrats have more than enough registered voters to seize a cluster of Republican-held districts. The lingering question, as in the past, is will they vote?
Democrats are likely to benefit from an elevated turnout in a presidential election year, with Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator and attorney general, leading the ticket. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.
Democrats are warning about former President Donald Trump’s possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights and gun violence. Republicans fault Democrats on crime, a porous southern border, high taxes and inflation that is squeezing household budgets.
Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking House Democrat, who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, has predicted the decisive fight for the chamber “will run through California.”
The fighter pilot and the never-ending battle
Democrats keep coming for Rep. Mike Garcia.
The last Republican congressman anchored in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former Navy pilot who flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has displayed a surprising ability to beat the odds in a district with an 11-point Democratic registration edge. He is being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.
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