With Republicans taking control of the White House and the U.S. Senate, the battle over who controls the House has only intensified post-Election Day — and that runs right through some key, still-close races in Orange County.
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That includes California’s 47th congressional district, an open seat where the latest tally of votes by the county’s registrar at 5 p.m. Friday, Nov. 8 showed state Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine, with a slight lead over former Assemblymember Scott Baugh, a Republican.
Min had captured 50.19% of the vote as of Friday evening, with only 1,078 votes separating the two candidates.
Min had jumped to an early lead after initial vote tallies were released Tuesday, but by early morning Wednesday, Baugh had moved out ahead – and he maintained that small edge through Thursday night.
The registrar will release the next tally of votes at 5 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 11. Continue to check the Register’s website, ocregister.com, for more updates.
Both candidates in the CA-47 race – just like contenders in other close congressional races this week – stressed the importance of patience; there are still many more votes to be counted, they said.
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But these later vote tally should paint a better picture of how the race may shake out for the seat currently held by Rep. Katie Porter, said Matthew Beckmann, who teaches political science and studies Washington politics at UC Irvine. Vote counts this week include larger batches of ballots whereas later tallies will include ballots trickling in through the mail, he said.
As of Friday evening, the registrar of voters estimated it had more than 323,000 ballots left to process, county-wide.
National Democrats are counting on Min, who shares Porter’s progressive values and a background in law but lacks her name recognition or star power, to retain the seat. On the other hand, Republicans are optimistic that Baugh can flip the seat, particularly since he came close to winning it in 2022 despite being significantly outspent.
A spokesperson for Baugh said the team is “hunkered down at the registrar of voters” as ballots are still being cured. The campaign will wait until the dust has cleared a bit more before making an official statement.
Min’s campaign sent out fundraising emails this week, asking supporters to chip in to its legal fund to ensure every vote is counted.
“We appreciate your patience and continued support as we fight until the very end,” the email said. “We believe that when every vote is counted, we’ll have what it takes to win.”
Beckmann expects Min will eke out a victory to replace outgoing Porter, especially given that the later ballots have generally tended to skew more blue.
But it is a district where Republicans held a tiny voter registration advantage going into Election Day, and the question – which most likely can’t be fully answered until more ballots are counted – is what sort of impact the red wave seen sweeping the country has made on the Orange County district.
Other OC House races
Meanwhile, races in two solidly blue Orange County congressional districts have already been called: Rep. Linda Sánchez in California’s 38th and Rep. Lou Correa in the 46th won reelection. Both took early leads over their Republican challengers Tuesday evening, and the races were ultimately called by The Associated Press.
Rep. Young Kim’s race was called by The Associated Press on Thursday. She defeated Democrat Joe Kerr in her reelection bid.
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