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After months of suspense, deliberation and a game-show-style process of elimination, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley has finally chosen a district in which to seek reelection.
The two-term congressman from Roseville announced this week that he will file paperwork to run for the Sacramento-area 6th Congressional District after California’s Proposition 50 dramatically reshaped his current district into a solid pickup for Democrats.
If Kiley wants to keep his job, the former state assemblymember — who morphed from a more traditional center-right Republican to a Trump-endorsed firebrand — will have to defy the odds. The new 6th is left-leaning – former Vice President Kamala Harris would have won the district by more than six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, according to data from California Target Book, a nonpartisan and subscriber-based election guide.
And while Kiley appears to have a clear path to the November ballot and a sizable fundraising advantage, his Democratic opponents will benefit greatly from the widespread voter discontent with the Trump administration and congressional Republicans, especially among independents.
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Challenges ahead
In a social media post on Monday, Kiley said he decided to run in the 6th District even though his team had “favorable polling” that showed he could win the safe Republican 5th Congressional District, currently held by long-time Rep. Tom McClintock.
Although Kiley stressed that he chose the more Democratic-leaning district because it included his home turf of Placer County, he almost certainly considered the tricky optics and logistics of mounting a primary challenge against a long-time Republican congressional colleague like McClintock.
“While this will be a more challenging race, I believe we can build a winning coalition for common sense,” Kiley wrote on social media. “Thanks to all for your encouragement and patience.”
Kiley’s spokesperson, John Pirsos, declined CalMatters interview requests.
Kiley’s first hurdle will be prevailing in the nonpartisan primary in June. In that race, he faces a splintered Democratic field that includes Dr. Richard Pan, a pediatrician and one-time state Senate colleague of Kiley’s; Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho; Lauren Babb-Tomlinson, who leads public affairs for Planned Parenthood; and Martha Guerrero, the mayor of West Sacramento.
As the sole viable Republican running against a sea of Democrats, Kiley stands a good chance of becoming one of the top two candidates and advancing to the general election on Nov. 3.
And unlike the crowded field of Democrats, who will race to one-up each other in spending with hopes of gaining an edge over the rest of the field, Kiley should emerge from June with a fuller war chest ready to unleash against his opponent in November. Kiley reported far more cash on hand than any of his Democratic opponents — $2 million at the end of last year, according to the latest federal filings.
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