SACRAMENTO — The leader of the California Democratic Party on Tuesday began publicly urging Democrats to drop out of the governor’s race because of the possibility they will be locked out of the general election.
About 45% of California voters are registered Democrats, compared with about 25% registered as Republicans. But nine candidates are splitting the Democratic vote, versus just two dividing Republicans. As a result, the two Republican candidates — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News pundit Steve Hilton — could place first and second in the primary. Under California’s jungle primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, that would guarantee a Republican governor in liberal California.
On Tuesday morning, a website built by California election data expert Paul Mitchell to assess the likelihood of a Democratic shutout was pegging that possibility at about 15%. The website factors in recent polling and fundraising data and runs simulated primary elections to predict how much of the vote each candidate might expect to win.
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“The likelihood of two Republicans effectively ‘locking out’ California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks wrote in an open letter. “However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible.”
At its convention last week, the party failed to coalesce around one candidate to endorse.
Hicks didn’t name any candidates in his letter. But he urged all Democrats to assess whether they have a path to victory and to drop out before Friday, the deadline to file paperwork to appear on the ballot, if they don’t. If they decide to stay in the race, he said they should assess their viability again before April 15 and endorse someone else if they can’t win.










