The top-two primary was supposed to change California politics. Did it flop?

For all the talk of a governor’s race between two Republicans, or even two Democrats, it’s looking like voters are in for a typical partisan matchup in November.

In predictably Democratic California, there’s no need for a political science degree or a crystal ball to confidently predict the result of a general election face-off between Xavier Becerra, the current Democratic front-runner, and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican.

Despite the top-two primary system in which the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of party, likely Democratic cakewalks abound further down the ballot after Tuesday’s election.

So why is it so rare in California, which hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006 and where Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans almost two-to-one, to put two Democrats on the ballot in the general election?

For all its political reputation as the left coast, California is simply not overwhelmingly Democratic enough to regularly advance two Democrats to the general election, said Andrew Sinclair, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College who has studied the effects of California’s top two.

With Democratic candidates regularly earning roughly 60% of the statewide vote, the electorate is sufficiently left-leaning to make the outcome of Democrat-versus-Republican general elections fairly predictable. But Democrats don’t make up quite enough of the vote share to push two Democratic candidates through the open primary except in somewhat unusual circumstances, he said.

“After about 60% to 65% Democratic vote share, it starts to get much more likely to get D-on-D races,” he said. In recent statewide races, the percentage of votes cast for the Democratic candidate has hovered around 60%, “right in the electoral dead zone,” said Sinclair.

The promise of top two

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

California’s unusual “top two” election system puts every candidate on the same primary ballot; the first and second place winners progress to the general election. The idea, approved by voters in 2010, was advertised as an engine of both political moderation and more meaningful choice. Both the Democratic and Republican parties were opposed.

Proponents argued that pulling candidates out of a purely partisan primary system would encourage them to appeal to voters across the ideological spectrum, rather than just the party base.

The new voting scheme would “change the dysfunctional political system and get rid of the paralysis and the partisan bickering” in California politics, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the proposition, said at the time.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Democrat Xavier Becerra advances to November race for California governor

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Democrat Xavier Becerra will advance to the November general election in the race for California governor, capping a sudden and dramatic ascent for a career politician who is running on his experience and his willingness to take on President Donald Trump.

Becerra, the former state attorney general, has secured nearly 27% of the vote in the June 2 primary, with about two-thirds of votes counted by the time The Associated Press made the call on Friday afternoon. If elected in November, he would be the first Latino to serve as California governor in more than a century and the first to win the seat via election, which his campaign called “a breakthrough.”

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It’s still unclear who his opponent will be: Returns so far show Republican Steve Hilton likely to advance with more than 26% of the votes, though the trailing Democrat Tom Steyer is at 21% and could make up ground in the more than 3 million votes that remain to be counted. Many Democratic voters held onto their ballots until the last minute, meaning the uncounted votes skew more Democratic.

California uses a top-two primary system; the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November ballot regardless of party. 

The November race could differ dramatically depending on the opponent. If it’s Hilton, Becerra would be heavily favored to win: Democrats in California outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one, and Hilton is endorsed by Trump, whom Californians disapprove of in high numbers. 

If it’s Steyer, California can expect an all-out slugfest between opposing wings of the Democratic Party, supercharged by the hundreds of millions of dollars Steyer has spent from his personal fortune on the primary alone. 

While the hedge fund manager-turned-Democratic donor and climate activist has run a progressive campaign and garnered the support of Bernie Sanders surrogates, Becerra is favored by more of the Democratic establishment. He also received consequential endorsements — and funding — from labor and industry groups.

Becerra, who had lingered in the single-digits in polling, surged in popularity following the political implosion of former frontrunner Eric Swalwell, with establishment Democrats favoring the former Health and Human Services secretary and former state attorney general over former Rep. Katie Porter and the outsider Steyer. 

It was a surprising and swift ascent for the mild-mannered career politician who was previously part of a crop of lower-polling Democratic candidates that party chair Rusty Hicks was publicly pressuring to drop out of the race. 

“Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight,” Becerra said at an election night rally Tuesday in Los Angeles, calling his near-victory “the everyday miracle of living in a state that regularly makes the improbable seem inevitable.”

The decision comes at a particularly consequential time for California. Residents face a crushing cost of living, nation-topping gas prices made worse by the war in Iran, wildfire risks that have driven insurance companies out of state, an unstable state budget, impending federal cuts to the state’s expansive health system and an economy dampened by immigration enforcement.

Becerra so far has not proposed major policy departures from Newsom’s two terms in office. 

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Trump, without proof, claims ‘cheating’ in California vote, says federal inquiry underway

  • State officials and elections experts reject the allegations as baseless, pointing to California’s generous mail voting rules, laborious signature checks and a predictable ‘red mirage’ that initially favors Republicans.
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump allies and right-wing influencers amplify fraud claims online as billions flow through political prediction markets, raising fresh fears about election misinformation and meddling for profit.

To the surprise of few, President Trump has once again claimed without evidence that Democrats are somehow cheating to win California’s primary elections — writing on social media late Wednesday that federal prosecutors in Los Angeles are investigating the matter.

“The Dumocrats are at it again! They are trying to STEAL THE GOVERNOR OF CALIFORNIA PRIMARY, AND THE MAYOR OF LOS ANGELES, PRIMARY, AWAY FROM TWO GREAT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES. Here we go with the very late and massive numbers of MAIL IN BALLOTS,” Trump posted to his social media website.

“There’s BIG cheating by the Dumocrats in California. Votes are all tied up. May not be in for weeks. Under investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Los Angeles,” he wrote in a second post. “Why the vote counting DELAY???”

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A spokesperson for the U.S. attorney’s office in Los Angeles — run by Trump loyalist First Assistant U.S. Atty. Bill Essayli — declined to comment Thursday morning on Trump’s claims of an investigation.

The White House declined to say what Trump was basing his cheating claims on, if anything, or provide details about the inquiry. Trump also provided no proof when he doubled down on his claims at a Thursday event in the Oval Office, where he alleged that California Democrats had “found a lot of mail-in ballots” the night prior and were “rigging the election” with them.

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber defended the state’s election process in a statement, saying “accuracy comes before speed” when counting millions of ballots in the nation’s most populous state.

“Taking the time to do this work correctly protects voters’ rights and ensures the integrity of our elections,” Weber said. “California has built a strong system that expands access, empowers voters, and ensures more Californians can fully participate in our democracy.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office responded directly to Trump late Wednesday with its own social media post, writing, “Trump is lying about California again — time to take the phone away from grandpa and put him to sleep.”

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

Five things to know about California’s election, from Congress to the governor’s race

It was a good night for normie Democrats, a bad one for self-funded campaigns, a mixed bag for state legislators aspiring to higher office and another electoral reminder of President Donald Trump’s dominant role in our politics — even in deepest blue California. 

At the top of the ticket, Republican former Fox News host and British political adviser Steve Hilton and longtime Democratic politico Xavier Becerra hold the top two spots needed to progress to the November election for governor. Tom Steyer, the billionaire former hedge fund manager turned left-leaning political donor, is holding a distant though technically viable third. The Associated Press has not called the race.

Veteran state election observers will know that it may be weeks before the final score of the June primary election is tallied. But a few early takeaways are already coming into focus:

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Money can’t (always) buy you love

Whether Steyer ultimately claws his way into the top two spots in the governor’s race after spending a record-setting sum on his self-funded campaign, it’s got to be a disappointing return on investment.

Steyer ultimately spent nearly a quarter of a billion dollars on his populism-coded gubernatorial bid. The fact that all that advertising didn’t translate to an electoral blowout is no surprise, said Garry South, a longtime California Democratic strategist.

“It may sound facetious to say that you can have too much money in a campaign, but in fact the way these rich self-financing candidates spend their money becomes a liability. …They wear out their welcome.”

Steyer isn’t the only candidate to have drawn deeply on his personal finances only to flounder at the ballot box. Patrick Wolff put $600,000 of his own money toward his insurance commissioner campaign, Yvonne Yiu invested $750,000 in her race to join the state Board of Equalization and Saikat Chakrabarti put up the bulk of the millions he spent in his bid to replace Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff put up $1 million — with millions more coming from his mother — to unseat the sitting city controller.

Chakrabarti couldn’t crack the top two in his race, losing to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. As of Wednesday morning, the remaining three trailed in their respective races.

A good night for ‘standard’ Democrats

Anti-incumbent populism may be in the national zeitgeist, but California voters seem perfectly happy with — or at least, fine settling with — experienced, garden variety Democrats.

“What they want is a Democratic elected official who can go and fight Donald Trump,” said Andrew Sinclair, a Claremont McKenna College political science professor. 

Hence the sharp, sudden rise of Becerra following the political implosion of former frontrunner Eric Swalwell. Swalwell was also well known as an experienced politician who “Donald Trump didn’t like,” said Sinclair. Mild-mannered Becerra with a deep political resume and limited baggage was the next logical choice. “What’s your standard, out-of-the-box Democrat who you can get to fight Republicans? Becerra is probably that guy.”

It helped that Becerra’s main Democratic opponent, the self-styled populist Steyer, had the easily-attacked billionaire status, and Democrats worried about being locked out of the general election wanted to get behind whoever was polling best.

Many of the Democratic incumbents in Congress also appeared to be fending off challenges from younger, more progressive insurgents — or at least keeping them firmly in second place. Those include Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui.

Party still matters

Back in 2010 when California adopted the top-two primary system, proponents pitched it to voters as a way to shake the partisan gridlock out of California politics. Rather than have Democratic and Republican primary voters predictably electing candidates who appeal to the ideological poles, a system that lets every candidate from every party compete on the same ballot was supposed to encourage across-the-aisle reaching candidates who can appeal to voters in the middle. 

Voters in the middle are less likely to show up in primary elections, said South. 

Nor has the state’s top-two system ever produced a general election race for governor with two Democrats. For all the talk of then-Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom squaring off against Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 or the possibility of a Becerra vs Steyer showdown this year, California governor races have always reverted to the partisan pattern with energized Democratic voters gravitating around their candidate and Republicans doing the same. 

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

New California law bans law enforcement from interfering in state elections

With so many candidates running for governor, it’s hard to keep up. We’re here to help: Sign up for our 2026 election newsletter to get the latest on the candidates.

Law enforcement officers will be banned from interfering with California elections under a new law Gov. Gavin Newsom signed Wednesday, just in time for the June 2 primary election. 

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The law, which takes effect immediately, criminalizes the act of taking cast ballots from the custody of a local election official, as gubernatorial candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco did earlier this year when he seized more than 600,000 ballots from his own county’s registrar of voters. Although Bianco claimed he was checking for proof of fraudulent voting, there was no evidence to suggest any ballots were cast improperly. 

“We have to step up, and we have to draw the line. We have to clarify the rules of engagement,” Newsom told reporters before signing the legislation. “It’s a warning to the folks out there that think they can do the bidding of the Trump administration.”

State lawmakers originally introduced the measure, Senate Bill 73, to guard against potential federal interference with California’s elections, given the Trump administration’s animosity toward the state and the president’s desire to keep Congress in GOP hands. 

But Bianco’s decision to seize ballots turned a hypothetical threat into a real one, spurring legislators to seize the moment and rush the bill through so it could take effect before Election Day.

The new law makes it illegal for a county registrar to surrender ballots or voting equipment to law enforcement agents such as Bianco or his deputies. Riverside County Registrar Art Tinoco would have violated the law by allowing the sheriff’s department to take the ballots, despite the search warrant they presented.

“Voters should never wonder whether ballots were improperly handled,” said Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, one of the bill’s Democratic coauthors and a former Santa Cruz County registrar. “And law enforcement powers should never be misused in ways that jeopardize the integrity of our democratic process.”

The law also reiterates that the attorney general, secretary of state or local county elections officials can sue any person, business or entity that takes “a package containing ballots” from an election official’s custody.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Lawmakers stripped the Board of Equalization of power. Now they’re fighting to join it

California’s primary election is just around the corner. Prepare to vote with the latest updates from our election newsletter.

California’s Board of Equalization is a coveted spot once again for state lawmakers looking for a new gig almost a decade after then-Gov. Jerry Brown signed a law gutting the organization of any serious governing responsibility.

This year, three current state lawmakers are competing for seats on the nation’s only elected tax board. They’re among some two dozen candidates on the ballot for its four elected positions, which are divided by geographic districts.

The board has long been a launching pad to higher offices in California politics — Fiona Ma served on it before becoming state treasurer, as did Betty Yee and Malia Cohen before each being elected state controller. 

The agency itself is a throwback to the 19th Century. It’s rooted in an 1879 constitutional amendment that created it and charged it with “equalizing” county property tax assessments statewide.

From that narrow mandate, it swelled to become a juggernaut that collected a third of the state’s tax revenue and provided a venue for people and businesses to contest their tax bills in front of the elected board. It survived numerous efforts by governors to kill it outright, including attempts by Pete Wilson and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

That is until 2017, when a cascade of allegations about board members misusing the office to promote themselves led to an authoritative state audit that lawmakers could not ignore. 

Brown signed a law stripping the agency of any powers beyond what voters gave it in 1879 and created two new departments that report to the governor instead of the elected board: one to collect sales and use taxes and another to hear taxpayer appeals. 

After that, Board of Equalization elections tended to be lower profile contests. Ted Gaines, a former Republican state lawmaker from the Sacramento area, won a seat. Former Democratic Assemblymember Sally Lieber is up for reelection on the board this year. The other members had experience in local politics instead of inside the Capitol. 

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“We’re lean but we’re not mean,” said Lieber, the incumbent for District 2, which includes 19 counties centered on the Bay Area. “I think the Board of Equalization is the right size in the system right now…I do really believe that the board has a role to play in being a forum for taxpayers to come forward to.”

This year voters will see more contentious elections for the tax board:

  • In District 1 representing inland California, Republican state Sen. Shannon Grove of Bakersfield has more than $900,000 in a campaign account and name recognition from her representing the San Joaquin Valley in the Legislature since 2010. Democrats are putting up a fight for the district. Fresno City Councilmember Nelson Esparza is running with the party’s support.
  • In District 2 representing coastal California north of Los Angeles, incumbent Lieber faces San Mateo Community College District Trustee John Pimentel. Lieber has the Democratic Party’s endorsement, but a number of Bay Area Democratic leaders are backing Pimentel, including state Treasurer Ma and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
  • In District 3 representing the Los Angeles area, former Monterey Park City Councilmember Yvonne Yiu put up $760,000 of her own money and has about $1 million on hand. The race has another heavyweight in Assemblymember Mike Gipson, a Democrat from Gardena who has served in the Legislature since 2014. 
  • District 4 representing the San Diego area has an especially crowded race with Democratic state Sen. Tom Umberg of Santa Ana, San Ysidro school board member Martín Arias, San Diego Unified School District board member Cody Peterson, and Denis Bilodeau, a Republican supported by San Diego Assemblymember Carl DeMaio’s Reform California organization.

A forum for California taxpayers

The board was always popular among taxpayer advocacy groups, who liked that it provided a forum to focus on tax issues in a capital where debates often center on labor and business.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Many Dems are stuck: Becerra, Steyer or someone else? Here’s what to know

Across California, blank ballots are sitting on kitchen tables, staring back at Democratic voters undecided about whom to back for governor. Many voters remain stumped, days before the June 2 primary. 

The dilemma for Democrats debating between their party’s two top-polling candidates, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who has spent much of career holding elected office, or former San Francisco hedge fund manager Tom Steyer, a billionaire who has never held elected office: “Do I vote for the career politician with the record that’s being criticized or the billionaire who made his fortune in part by investing in nefarious things and has no experience in public office whatsoever?” 

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Meanwhile, others not enamored by either candidate might fear throwing away their vote by backing one of the lower-polling Democrats. If I vote with my heart for a lower-polling candidate, the thinking goes, will that risk sending one or two Republicans to the general election?

The lack of a consensus around a candidate in this crazier-than-usual campaign reflects why many Democrats are still searching. Some are hesitant to commit after seeing former Rep. Eric Swalwell implode after the Chronicle’s bombshell investigation revealed allegations that he sexually assaulted a female staffer. That hesitancy — and the lack of compelling candidates — may explain why 13% of Democrats remain undecided.

The two Democrats closest to advancing to the general election, according to most polls, are Steyer and Becerra. 

Experience-wise, they couldn’t be more different. Voters seeking an experienced hand might gravitate toward Becerra’s many years in public office, in a variety of state and federal roles. Those seeking a nonpolitician’s perspective on California’s problems might be impressed with Steyer’s business and advocacy background. Both come with pitfalls: Becerra’s long résumé means there is plenty to criticize when it comes to the choices he’s made as a public official. Steyer’s non-résumé in public office means it’s hard to predict how he might approach problems that arise in government leadership roles.

Click here to read the full article in the SF Chronicle

National Democrats said they’d stay out of this California race. Then they picked a side

California’s primary election is just around the corner. Prepare to vote with the latest updates from our election newsletter.

National Democrats have zeroed in on the 22nd Congressional District, a swing seat in the Central Valley, as a key part of their strategy to win back control of Congress. 

Two Democrats are vying for the chance to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. David Valadao, whose defeat is even more crucial in the wake of court decisions that blew up Democrats’ redistricting plans. 

After saying they would not pick a side in the primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee stepped in recently with a last-minute endorsement of moderate state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains over progressive college professor Randy Villegas. 

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That triggered an angry reaction from local Democratic leaders.

“They lied to all of us,” said Christian Romo, chair of the Kern County Democratic Central Committee, who said staff at the DCCC had told him multiple times that their organization would not get involved in the primary absent a situation in which it appeared two Republican candidates would advance. Under California’s open primary, the two candidates with the most votes advance to the November election, regardless of party affiliation. 

Romo and his counterparts in Tulare, Fresno and Kings counties endorsed Villegas and publicly denounced the DCCC’s move to add Bains to their priority list of flippable districts. The national party, Romo said, was trying to bigfoot state and local Democrats who earlier this year could not reach a consensus on whom to endorse. 

“It’s a slap to the face of the local parties,” Romo said. 

For months, liberal activists have butted heads over which brand of Democrat is the most capable of wooing enough working-class and Latino voters to win the conservative-leaning district — the same tug-of-war between centrists and progressive populists that has played out across the country.

After redistricting, Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage with 42%, while 26% of registered voters are Republican and 22% are registered without party preference, according to the California Target Book.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

California county finds nearly 600 unopened ballots months after Newsom-backed redistricting measure passed

County officials say the error stemmed from a miscommunication over whether the drop box had been fully emptied

Nearly 600 unopened ballots were discovered in a California county months after voters approved a statewide Democratic redistricting measure, with local election officials admitting they failed voters.

The Humboldt County Office of Elections said in a Wednesday press release that the 596 sealed but uncounted ballots did not impact the outcome of the Nov. 4 statewide special election, which centered on Proposition 50, a redistricting ballot measure pushed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democrats.

The ballots were found Monday inside a locked drop box, prompting county officials to say they had not been tampered with because the box was locked, and the ballots remained sealed. Officials said the error stemmed from a miscommunication over whether the drop box had been fully emptied before certification.

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“While the mistake occurred after an election worker did not follow proper procedures, the responsibility for what happened ultimately sits with me. I did not have strong enough controls in place to prevent this, but we do now,” Humboldt County Clerk-Recorder and Registrar of Voters Juan Pablo Cervantes said in the news release. “We have taken corrective action and already updated our protocols. A new lock out, tag out procedure has been implemented for every ballot drop box to ensure each box is physically verified as empty and secured before election results are finalized.”

Click here to read the full article in Fox News

From The Hills To City Hall? The Rise of Spencer Pratt

Just weeks ago, the political class dismissed Pratt as a reality-TV punchline; at last night’s mayoral debate, he delivered a powerful reality check

Just weeks ago, the political class dismissed him as a reality-TV punchline. But Spencer Pratt, a reality star and 42 year-old millennial “outsider,” delivered a powerful reality check last night during the Los Angeles mayoral debate. Today, Pratt is surging as a serious contender and the DSA comrades are rattled.

A flash poll conducted immediately after Wednesday night’s debate by NBC4, delivered a stunning verdict: 88% of respondents said Pratt won the debate, compared to just 7% for incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and 5% for DSA Councilmember Nithya Raman. That kind of decisive margin isn’t a tremor. It’s a seismic shift.

Social media trends and search data confirm what voters are feeling: Pratt is dominating online conversations, outpacing both Bass and Raman in Google searches, X mentions, and viral clips by massive margins. Angelenos aren’t just noticing him, they’re rallying behind him and opening their minds…and their wallets.

According to latest reports, Pratt not only leads in online engagement, he leads in fundraising against two incumbents who have overseen and managed the decline of the City of Angels for a combined decade. Pratt has raised over $540,000 since January, placing him as a “legitimate top-tier candidate” in the nonpartisan race to lead the second largest city in the country.

In an off-the-cuff  TikTok interview that has racked up hundreds of thousands of views, Pratt didn’t mince words: “Karen Bass is getting desperate now that she is losing.” He vowed to make his airstream trailer on his burned-out lot in the Palisades into the “Mayor’s Compound” should he win on June 2nd with 51% of the vote. Pratt said he would turn the current mayoral residence into a place for single mom’s since “Bass claims there is a housing issue.”

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Pratt’s blunt, unscripted style lands political blows with precision and sincerity. While Bass and Raman fumbled over pages of scripted talking points about “equity” and “reimagining,” Pratt spoke like a normal person– a local Angeleno who watched his home and city burn, collapse under crime, and drown in homeless drug addicts and dangerous encampments.

That home-grown authenticity is cutting through decades of political spin and  resonating with moms and millennials.

Meghan McCain, no stranger to politics, didn’t hold back after the debate: “This is not hyperbole– @spencerpratt is the blueprint for how my generation of older millennials needs to communicate and present their ideas and campaign messaging when running for office. He is 10/10 no notes. Absolute raw talent. Killed the debate.” McCain went further, predicting flatly, “This guy is going to win.”

She’s not alone in seeing something historic. 

Pratt’s reach and message has gone international. British election forecaster John Mappin, the man who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory and won £100,000 betting on it, recorded a powerful video message from Camelot Castle in England. Standing at the legendary birthplace of King Arthur, Mappin told Pratt: “I believe you can win,” adding, “You are a potential winner and Los Angeles has an extraordinary opportunity. May you restore the beauty of Los Angeles once again.”

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe