From The Hills To City Hall? The Rise of Spencer Pratt

May 9, 2026 By Megan Barth Leave a Comment

Just weeks ago, the political class dismissed Pratt as a reality-TV punchline; at last night’s mayoral debate, he delivered a powerful reality check

Just weeks ago, the political class dismissed him as a reality-TV punchline. But Spencer Pratt, a reality star and 42 year-old millennial “outsider,” delivered a powerful reality check last night during the Los Angeles mayoral debate. Today, Pratt is surging as a serious contender and the DSA comrades are rattled.

A flash poll conducted immediately after Wednesday night’s debate by NBC4, delivered a stunning verdict: 88% of respondents said Pratt won the debate, compared to just 7% for incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and 5% for DSA Councilmember Nithya Raman. That kind of decisive margin isn’t a tremor. It’s a seismic shift.

Social media trends and search data confirm what voters are feeling: Pratt is dominating online conversations, outpacing both Bass and Raman in Google searches, X mentions, and viral clips by massive margins. Angelenos aren’t just noticing him, they’re rallying behind him and opening their minds…and their wallets.

According to latest reports, Pratt not only leads in online engagement, he leads in fundraising against two incumbents who have overseen and managed the decline of the City of Angels for a combined decade. Pratt has raised over $540,000 since January, placing him as a “legitimate top-tier candidate” in the nonpartisan race to lead the second largest city in the country.

In an off-the-cuff  TikTok interview that has racked up hundreds of thousands of views, Pratt didn’t mince words: “Karen Bass is getting desperate now that she is losing.” He vowed to make his airstream trailer on his burned-out lot in the Palisades into the “Mayor’s Compound” should he win on June 2nd with 51% of the vote. Pratt said he would turn the current mayoral residence into a place for single mom’s since “Bass claims there is a housing issue.”

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Pratt’s blunt, unscripted style lands political blows with precision and sincerity. While Bass and Raman fumbled over pages of scripted talking points about “equity” and “reimagining,” Pratt spoke like a normal person– a local Angeleno who watched his home and city burn, collapse under crime, and drown in homeless drug addicts and dangerous encampments.

That home-grown authenticity is cutting through decades of political spin and  resonating with moms and millennials.

Meghan McCain, no stranger to politics, didn’t hold back after the debate: “This is not hyperbole– @spencerpratt is the blueprint for how my generation of older millennials needs to communicate and present their ideas and campaign messaging when running for office. He is 10/10 no notes. Absolute raw talent. Killed the debate.” McCain went further, predicting flatly, “This guy is going to win.”

She’s not alone in seeing something historic. 

Pratt’s reach and message has gone international. British election forecaster John Mappin, the man who correctly predicted Donald Trump’s 2016 victory and won £100,000 betting on it, recorded a powerful video message from Camelot Castle in England. Standing at the legendary birthplace of King Arthur, Mappin told Pratt: “I believe you can win,” adding, “You are a potential winner and Los Angeles has an extraordinary opportunity. May you restore the beauty of Los Angeles once again.”

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe

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California Republicans who flipped seats in 2024 are fighting to keep them

May 5, 2026 By Yue Stella Yu Leave a Comment

California’s primary election is just around the corner. Prepare to vote with the latest updates from our election newsletter.

In 2024, California Republicans flipped three legislative seats amid a nationwide rightward shift that helped elect President Donald Trump. 

Now, they must play defense.

Two of the seats they flipped in the state Assembly are up for reelection. Republicans are also fending off challenges in a few other purple districts. 

Defending their seats will be a tall task: The president’s party almost always loses in downballot races during the midterms, and Trump’s approval rating has slipped.

Democratic challengers in those hot races are bashing GOP incumbents for failing to defend Californians from Trump’s actions. 

“California Republicans have spent a decade wrapping their arms around Donald Trump, so they can’t run away from the president’s record,” said California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks. 

For embattled Republicans, it’ll be crucial to keep Trump at arm’s length, GOP consultants and local party chairs agree. 

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The dynamic is playing out in the rematch between Assemblymember Leticia Castillo, a Corona Republican, and Clarissa Cervantes, a Democrat and Riverside city councilmember who lost to Castillo by fewer than 600 votes in 2024. Republicans slammed Cervantes for her two drunk driving convictions, and Castillo won despite being heavily outspent: Her campaign raised just $78,000 compared to Cervantes’ $1 million.

This time, Cervantes, whose sister Sen. Sabrina Cervantes previously held this seat, is banking on voters who’ve grown frustrated with the high cost of living Trump promised to bring down. In a CalMatters interview, she pointed to the war in Iran that has sent gas prices skyrocketing, saying Castillo is complacent about Trump’s policies. Castillo has focused on “conspiracy theories and culture wars,” Cervantes argued, referring to a bill the Republican authored to keep transgender women out of locker rooms and restrooms.

“She’s not getting anything done for us,” Cervantes said.

Click here to read the full article at CalMatters

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California’s race for secretary of state shows partisan divide over how to count ballots

May 1, 2026 By Yue Stella Yu 1 Comment

California’s primary election is just around the corner. Prepare to vote with the latest updates from our election newsletter.

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who made history in 2021 as the first Black person to hold the office, is seeking a second four-year term.

As the incumbent and the only Democrat in the field, she will almost certainly cruise to victory in November. She faces only one serious challenger: Orange County Supervisor Don Wagner, a Republican. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006.

During her tenure, Weber has faced criticism for California’s slow ballot-counting process — so slow that projected winners of state legislative races are often sworn in before Weber’s office certifies the results. Under state law, county election officials have 30 days to count ballots and conduct audits. Critics, including Wagner, say the time frame undermines voters’ trust in the state’s election integrity. 

In an interview with CalMatters, Weber dismissed the concerns as an issue President Donald Trump drummed up to pick on California. She argued it’s important to count every ballot and that most outcomes are known before she certifies the results anyway. 

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“I know the value of being fast for some folks,” she said. “For me, accuracy is far more important.”

Wagner criticized Weber for doing little to lobby state lawmakers to speed up the ballot count. He said he would roll back the practice of sending universal mail-in ballots to every voter, which the state made permanent during the COVID-19 pandemic, though that would require legislative approval. He said he’d also support legislation to move up the deadline to certify election results. 

“Rather than wait 30 days, let’s make these changes that are right now causing people of all parties and no party to question: ‘Geez, is that really a fair election?’” Wagner said.

Weber, a former San Diego assemblymember, was appointed to the position by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021 and later won a full term in 2022. The daughter of Arkansas sharecroppers who fled the Jim Crow South, Weber drew on her family history and campaigned on expanding voter access and boosting voter turnout.  

Over the past five years, Weber has overseen the administration of contentious elections that drew the national spotlight, from the recall against Newsom in 2021 to the congressional redistricting fight last November. She said she has focused on expanding voter outreach to rural corners of California and encouraging voter registration on high school and college campuses — something she said she would continue to focus on in her second term if she is re-elected. 

Weber has been in court several times defending California election laws. She has sued local governments for violating election law while also defending the state’s election administration against legal challenges from both Democrats and Republicans. She most recently fended off a lawsuit by Trump’s Department of Justice seeking voter registration data in California. 

Weber said she fought to defend Californians’ voting rights. “If we were giving (voter information) away like candy, who would trust us … to protect their records?”

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

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California GOP Fails to Endorse Republican Candidate for Governor

April 14, 2026 By Staff 1 Comment

Betting markets show Hilton 83% outperforming Bianco 10%

Despite President Donald Trump’s endorsement last week of Steve Hilton running for California Governor, the California Republican Party failed to issue an endorsement during the weekend convention.

However, whether the GOP on Sunday decided not to endorse either Republican candidate for governor, “Chad Bianco left with nothing, and we have Trump’s endorsement,” said Hector Barajas, Hilton communications director. “Bianco’s entire relevancy in this campaign was on getting this endorsement over the last several months; his entire operation was built around it, and he had a huge advantage that it was in Southern California and still couldn’t even get 50% of the vote, much less than 60 needed to get the endorsement.”

As Hilton noted, there were no endorsements at the CAGOP convention, however, the endorsement that matters is President Trump’s endorsement of Hilton.

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Politico called it “a rare rebuke of the president in the nation’s largest state.”

“The outcome was not unexpected among political professionals in the run-up to the convention. Bianco was widely viewed as on the cusp of securing the 60 percent support needed for the endorsement before Trump weighed in — suggesting that the president at least helped Hilton prevent the party from picking sides. Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, expressed confidence just Friday that he had the votes locked up.”

“We think that the numbers are there,” Bianco told POLITICO, days after Trump endorsed Hilton. “Steve knows he doesn’t have it, and he’s going to be doing everything he can to try and block it.”

The betting markets are telling, showing Hilton dramatically outperforming Bianco:

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe

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Democrats are eager to flip Issa’s seat. But his Republican successor is a ‘formidable opponent’

April 9, 2026 By Nadia Lathan and Deborah Brennan Leave a Comment

California’s primary election is just around the corner. Prepare to vote with the latest updates from our election newsletter.

When Republican Rep. Darrell Issa quit his reelection campaign last month, Democrats celebrated. Now, some are worried.

Issa’s exit is seen as a mixed blessing among Democratic officials who have eyed flipping his San Diego House seat for years. While demonstrators at a No Kings rally last weekend were exultant to see him leave the race, local Democratic organizers are more guarded. The Republican who took his place, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, is a longtime local official with name recognition, fundraising connections and community relationships — without Issa’s close ties to President Donald Trump. 

“If anything, Jim Desmond is a slightly better candidate than Darrell Issa in some regards,” because he is not as closely affiliated with Trump, said Dan Rottenstreich, a spokesperson for Marni von Wilpert, one of two leading Democrats in the race. 

The new hotly contested district covers most of East and North County San Diego and parts of Riverside County, including Palm Springs. Its voter makeup shifted from deep red to slightly blue when California voters approved a redistricting plan to try to give the state five more Democratic congressmembers after Texas created five extra Republican seats. 

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San Diego Democrats, including council member Marni von Wilpert, and former Obama official Ammar Campa-Najjar, are competing with Desmond in a crowded field. The top two vote-getters in the June primary will face off in the November general election, regardless of their party. Given the district makeup, Desmond is expected to secure one of those spots.

With a local background in nonpartisan office, Desmond is a “formidable opponent” to Democrats, said Ross Pike, parliamentarian for the Democratic Club of Fallbrook. Desmond raised nearly $1.4 million by the end of last year and the main GOP re-election campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee, says it’s optimistic about the district as Desmond aims to cast himself as a moderate focused on affordability and immigration. 

“He appears more approachable, less polarizing, and he has given grants to different areas, and people know him for that, so it’s going to be tough,” said Amalia Martinez, vice president of communications for the Escondido Democratic Club, which endorsed von Wilpert. 

And in a race with many Democrats, party support is divided. In the regional stage of California Democrats’ endorsement process, von Wilpert fell short by a single vote. During the state convention she won more than half of delegates’ votes, but didn’t meet a 60% threshold. Campa-Najjar received 18% of delegates’ support.

Another Democrat, Palm Springs businessman Brandon Riker, is also gaining ground in the Coachella Valley. He raised $1.5 million by the end of the year and was the only other candidate besides von Wilpert and Campa-Najjar to win some votes at the California Democratic Party convention.

“The more Democrats that are on this ballot in the primary, that’s less votes for Marni to get,” Martinez said. 

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

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Two Republicans are fighting for California governor. Why a tie is their best strategy

April 3, 2026 By Staff 1 Comment

With so many candidates running for governor, it’s hard to keep up. We’re here to help: Sign up for our 2026 election newsletter to get the latest on the candidates.

California Republicans have an unusual shot of claiming an upset victory in the governor’s race this year — but to win, neither of their candidates can get too far ahead of the other just yet.

With eight major Democratic candidates splitting the liberal vote, both Republican candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could come in first and second in the June 2 primary and move on to the November ballot. 

That would shut out Democratic general election candidates, an extraordinary event that pollsters and strategists of both parties agree is the only viable chance for a Republican to become governor. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one in California and the GOP hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades.

Both Republicans can only advance to November if they split the Republican vote essentially evenly, giving each enough to surpass their Democratic opponents. That’s thanks to California’s top-two primary system, in which the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election regardless of their party. 

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Democrats insist it won’t happen, though they face mounting pressure over the risk in a year when the party is hoping to turn out liberal voters for U.S. House races in November. 

And neither Republican is strategizing to shut the Democrats out. Instead of trying to keep the other alive through the primary, Hilton and Bianco are running campaigns like any other candidate: seeking to defeat each other. Hilton has spent the past few months attempting to consolidate Republican support by attacking Bianco, who has been happy to return the ire. 

“There’s an amazing irony there, that they need to beat each other but they both need to succeed at the same time,” GOP strategist Rob Stutzman said. “It cuts against human nature and cuts against the way you put together campaigns.”

An intra-Republican primary

Despite very different backgrounds, Hilton and Bianco are running on similar policies.

Hilton is a British political strategist who’s written extensively about populism, reducing bureaucracy and decentralizing power, and Bianco is a bombastic local sheriff who is pushing the boundaries of police authority over elections.

Both are pushing a deregulation agenda, railing against Democratic-backed environmental policies they blame for raising the state’s cost of living. Their targets include the landmark California Environmental Quality Act, which requires environmental reviews for new construction. 

Both Republicans also want to reverse prison closures, boost oil production to lower gas prices and reduce or eliminate the 61-cents-a-gallon gas tax.

Hilton wants to shield the first $100,000 of earnings from the state income tax (a goal Democrat Katie Porter shares) and significantly lower taxes on higher earners by cutting 18% of the state budget, including areas he claims are fraudulent or wasteful such as using cannabis tax revenue to support substance abuse programs. Bianco also wants to cut, and bring in oil revenues to eliminate the income tax entirely. 

Hilton, one of the race’s top fundraisers, has raised more than $6.6 million so far, exceeding Bianco’s haul by more than $2 million. The two are second and third to Democratic former Rep. Katie Porter in the total number of campaign donors — one measure of popular support. 

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

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Democrats face the possibility of a historic upset in California governor’s race, poll finds

March 23, 2026 By Seema Mehta Leave a Comment

Despite a long, entrenched Democratic reign over California politics, a new poll shows two Republicans leading by slim margins in the state’s 2026 race for governor as the June primary election fast approaches.

The confounding results appear to be mostly due to the state’s left-leaning electorate feeling uninspired by any single candidate in the crowded field of eight top Democrats. Because of California’s top-two primary rule, that lethargy could lead to Democrats being shut out of a November election that will determine the next leader of the largest state in the union, though that is still considered unlikely.

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton had the support of 17% of likely voters and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco had the backing of 16%, according to a poll released Wednesday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.

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Following closely behind were Democrats Rep. Eric Swalwell of Northern California and former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, both of whom had support from 13% of the likely voters surveyed. Aside from billionaire hedge fund founder and environmental activist Tom Steyer, who registered at 10% support after plowing tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, no other Democrat had won support from more than 5% of likely voters, the poll showed.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, said he was stunned by how fractured voters are and how little knowledge they have about the candidates less than 60 days before ballots start arriving in Californians’ mailboxes.

“This is historic for me, and especially given that none of the candidates have really a positive image rating with voters, also startling. I mean, perhaps one of the reasons why voters are disengaged, they’re just not enthusiastic about any of the candidates,” he said. “They’re kind of sleepwalking to this election.”

Swalwell and Porter both hew toward the progressive wing of the party and rose to national prominence as frequent guests on cable news shows and as combative, at times theatrical, committee members during congressional oversight hearings. That notoriety prompted attacks from Republicans and the far right and increased their popularity among the Democratic base — both pivotal for voters seeking a strong candidate to challenge President Trump.

Porter slightly rebounded after a dip in polling in the fall after videos emerged of her berating an aide and a reporter. She also has the highest favorable rating of any candidate in the field at 34%.

According to the survey, Steyer’s support from likely voters increased to 10% from just 1% in Berkeley’s October poll. The momentum comes after Steyer spent about $50 million airing television ads since December, according to an analysis by data expert Paul Mitchell for Capitol Weekly.

Among the other top Democrats in the race: former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was backed by 5% of likely voters; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San José Mayor Matt Mahan by 4%, and former state Controller Betty Yee and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond by 1%.

Click here to read the full article from the LA Times via AOL

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Nevada’s Mail Ballots Shipped to Scandal-Plagued Arizona Firm for Election ‘Processing’

March 11, 2026 By Megan Barth Leave a Comment

Clark County’s mail-in ballots were outsourced to Runbeck Election Services’ facility in Maricopa County where they were allegedly commingled with Arizona ballots (and other western states) in an unsecured warehouse devoid of proper oversight

A stunning investigation has exposed a major breach in election security: Clark County’s mail-in ballots from Nevada were outsourced to Runbeck Election Services’ facility in Maricopa County, Arizona, where they were allegedly commingled with Arizona ballots (and other western states) in an unsecured warehouse devoid of proper oversight. 

This cross-state handoff not only caused damaging delays in Clark County tabulations but appears to have violated the fundamental chain of custody—the unbreakable documented trail that safeguards ballots from voter hand to official count.

Chain of custody is non-negotiable in secure elections. Nevada statutes (NRS Chapter 293 and related NAC regulations) require rigorous logging of every ballot transfer: who handles them, timestamps, locations, conditions, and tamper-evident seals. The U.S. Election Assistance Commission stresses bipartisan witnesses, no unsupervised access, and continuous accountability to prevent tampering, addition, or substitution. When ballots are shipped out-of-state to a private vendor like Runbeck, direct county control evaporates. Oversight shifts to non-government employees without Clark County officials, law enforcement, or bipartisan monitors present during critical phases violates state and federal law.

According to a damning memo from House Administration Committee observers, including a Republican staffer and a Democratic colleague, Runbeck’s Maricopa facility was a veritable Wild West of ballot handling.

Completed mail-in ballots from Nevada were stored in the same room as blank ballots—not just from Arizona, but potentially from other Western states like Colorado, California, and Utah. Pallets of blank ballots sat unattended with ripped wrapping, suggesting easy access for tampering.

Worse, Nevada’s ballots were sidelined while Arizona’s were prioritized, causing critical delays in Clark County’s tabulation on Wednesday and Thursday post-Election Day. “This may explain the delay in Nevada posting any new tabulated totals,” the staffer wrote, highlighting how Nevada ballots languished awaiting sorting and signature verification at Runbeck.

Congressional observers’ memo details the nightmare:  No Nevada election officials or independent watchers were on site at the Runbeck facility. This creates systemic vulnerabilities: ballots could be altered, swapped, or injected without detection or traceability.

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Runbeck’s sordid history only heightens the alarm.

In 2022, Maricopa’s Election Day printer failures rejected thousands of ballots and claims of improper ballot insertions by staff sparked widespread fraud allegations (though later dismissed in court). Kari Lake’s legal efforts highlighted chain-of-custody lapses involving hundreds of thousands of mail ballots. Recent reports note unfulfilled promises of enhanced monitoring like cameras and observer access.

The lack of oversight is staggering: No state election officials, law enforcement, or bipartisan observers were present during ballot processing. Runbeck’s own promises of upgraded monitoring—cameras, observer rooms, and live feeds—went unfulfilled, despite CEO Jeff Ellington’s assurances. This isn’t just incompetence; it’s a recipe for disaster.

As Rep. Abe Hamadeh (R-AZ) detailed in his June 2025 letter to U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, demanding a DOJ probe: “The commingling of blank ballots with live ballots poses a significant risk to the accuracy and fairness of election results.” Hamadeh’s call came amid reports of boxes of printed blanks from multiple states mixed with voted ballots, raising “serious questions about the security and integrity of the election process.”

This outsourcing fiasco stems directly from Nevada Democrats’ pandemic-era power grab.

With a legislative supermajority in 2020, Democrats ushered in sweeping changing to Nevada’s election laws: mandating universal mail ballots, permitting UNLIMITED, non-family ballot harvesting, relaxing postmark requirements, and diluting signature verification. Made permanent in 2021 over GOP objections, these changes—six major expansions since 2020 per the Brennan Center—prioritized “voter access” over security. As chronicled in my Nevada Globe reporting, lawsuits forced purges of over 100,000 inactive voters and commercial addresses, exposed Indian reservation voter registration drives, and challenged the Nevada Supreme Court’s ruling allowing undated ballots to count days after Election Day.

To uncover the full extent of this outsourcing, the California Globe has filed an open records request with the Clark County Elections Department under the Nevada Public Records Act (NRS Chapter 239). We seek all contracts, agreements, scopes of work, amendments, and related documents with Runbeck Election Services from 2020 to present; the number of Clark County ballots processed by Runbeck per election cycle (broken down by type); and detailed descriptions of services performed—printing, sorting, signature verification preparation, storage, or other handling—along with any timelines, delays, or custody logs.

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Struggling Democrats need to drop out of California’s crowded governor race or risk a GOP win, party leader warns

March 5, 2026 By Seema Mehta Leave a Comment
  • California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urged struggling gubernatorial candidates to withdraw before Friday’s filing deadline to prevent vote-splitting in the June primary.
  • Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes advance to November regardless of party, risking an all-Republican general election despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans statewide.
  • The controversy: Most struggling Democratic candidates are people of color, prompting concerns that the dropout push disproportionately impacts minorities, a critical part of the Democratic base.

Fearing the prospect of a Republican winning California’s gubernatorial race, state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks on Tuesday urged his party’s candidates who lack a viable path to victory to drop out.

“It is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign,” Hicks wrote in an open letter to the politicians vying to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom. “I recognize my suggestions are hard for many to contemplate and may be even viewed as overly harsh by some.”

Hicks did not name the Democrats he wants out of the race, but such a public admonishment by a party leader is rare in California politics.

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Even though the odds are relatively low, California cannot risk having a Republican elected as the next governor at a time when President Trump is in the White House, Hicks said.

“[S]o much is at stake in our Nation and so many are counting on the leadership of California Democrats to stand up and speak out at this historic moment,” Hicks wrote. “California’s leadership on the world stage is significantly harder if a Democrat is not elected as our next Governor.”

Hicks urged Democrats languishing at the bottom of the field of candidates to drop out before the Friday deadline to officially file to run for governor — to ensure their names do not appear on the June primary ballot.

Within hours of the letter’s release, former state Controller Betty Yee and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond — two of the candidates lowest in recent opinion polls — officially filed papers to run for governor.

Thurmond, who is Black and Latino, posted a video accusing the party of urging every person of color to drop out of the race.

“Bernie Sanders was right. Our political system is rigged, corrupted by the political elites, the wealthy and well connected,” he said in the video, which was posted on the social media platform X. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every person of color in the race for Governor to drop out.”

He said the party favored three flawed white candidates — billionaire Tom Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter.

“To me, this act doesn’t reflect the Democratic Party of 2026,” Thurmond said. “Aren’t we supposed to be the party who embraces democracy?”

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who is expected to file papers to run later Tuesday, used Hicks’ letter to call on former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a fellow Latino, to drop out of the race.

Click here to read the full article at the LA Times

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Race for redrawn California’s 40th Congressional District is starting to take shape

March 1, 2026 By Kaitlyn Schallhorn Leave a Comment

Momentum, money and ‘politically homeless’ voters are vital in a race that could determine which party controls the House after the midterms

With all the changes California’s mid-cycle redistricting maneuvers brought to congressional districts this year, one nestled in Orange County and the Inland Empire is considered still to be a safe seat for Republicans to control.

The question for California’s 40th Congressional District, though, is: Which Republican?

But first, there is the June primary, and the race for the 40th Congressional District has attracted a bevy of candidates, including both incumbent Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim.

And as the period for those to file to run for the seat nears a close, the race is beginning to take shape and it’s peppered with question marks.

There are enough “politically homeless” voters who might have an outsized say in determining who battles it out for the 40th Congressional District in the fall, political experts say.

With about two months to go until registered California voters begin to receive their ballots in the mail, the contest for the 40th is projected to be “fairly safe” for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

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Should this congressional district have existed in 2024, President Donald Trump would have won it by 12 points, according to the Cook Political Report’s election analysis.

More than 40% of registered voters in the district are registered Republicans, whereas 31% are registered Democrats and 21% are no party preference, according to the latest data from the California secretary of state.

That’s enough Republican voters, perhaps, to propel both Calvert and Kim through the primary.

“The focus has been on Calvert and Kim for good reason,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.

“Unless one or the other breaks through in a very dominant fashion, and it looks unlikely at this point, it’s going to be two Republicans who make it through the primary,” Schnur said.

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register

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