LA fires could drastically drive up insurance premiums — and test California’s new market rules

The deadly and destructive fires in Los Angeles — which some say could be the costliest in the state’s history — will further strain the insurance market and worsen the financial position of California’s insurer of last resort.

Data about Pacific Palisades, the devastated LA neighborhood whose residents include movie stars and directors, help illustrate the insurance problems plaguing the state. An estimated 1 in 5 homes in the upscale neighborhood were covered by the insurer, known as the FAIR Plan. 

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Property owners in California have increasingly been turning to the plan, a pool of insurers required by state law to sell fire policies to consumers who can’t find regular insurance elsewhere. That’s because, for the past few years, insurance companies have been canceling policies or refusing to write new ones in California, citing rising risk of wildfires. As a result, the FAIR Plan’s number of homeowner policies grew to more than 451,000 as of September 2024, an increase of 123% over the past three years.

Last year, State Farm decided not to renew tens of thousands of policies in the state, including about 1,600 in Pacific Palisades. As of September, there were 1,430 residential FAIR Plan policies in the enclave’s 90272 ZIP code, an 85% increase from the previous year, according to the plan’s latest data. 

Elsewhere in Los Angeles, some cities and neighborhoods with spiking FAIR Plan use have either been evacuated or are near the fires. They include the 90402 ZIP code in Santa Monica, where FAIR Plan policies have increased 128% year over year. 

Now, after at least five people have died and more than 2,000 structures have been destroyed in the LA area, and as those who have lost their homes begin to submit claims with their insurance companies, there’s a big question mark around the state’s plan to try to ensure insurance availability. A plan touted by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as a way to get insurance companies to write policies in the state again just became effective at the beginning of the year. 

The so-called sustainable insurance strategy includes having the state speed reviews of rate hike requests from insurance companies and allow insurers to use catastrophe models when setting their premiums. Insurers would also be able to adjust for the cost of their own financial backstop, known as reinsurance. The concessions mean insurers will raise premiums for the state’s property owners but in exchange must write or maintain a certain number of policies in high-risk areas.

“There’s no doubt that this massively complicates things,” said Stephen Collier, professor of city and regional planning at UC Berkeley whose research focuses on insurance, climate change and urban planning. “It couldn’t be at a worse possible time.”

Lara also told CalMatters today that “of course this is going to complicate an already complicated market.” 

But the commissioner said he has been in touch with insurance companies in the past couple of days: “The reforms are in place now, the (insurers’) commitments are in place now. As far as my conversations as recently as last night, those still stand and move forward.”

In addition, the FAIR Plan, the insurer for many of those affected by the current blazes, will likely have to pay claims for tens of billions of dollars in damages.

“This massively complicates things.”STEPHEN COLLIER, PROFESSOR OF CITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING AT UC BERKELEY

Collier said that massive potential liability could make insurers “think twice” about whether they want to keep writing policies in the state. “Having all this risk transferred to the FAIR Plan doesn’t get insurers off the hook if they’re still writing in the California market,” he said. That’s because insurers in the state are on the hook to pay into the plan when it can’t cover all its claims.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

California Insurance Market Rattled by Withdrawal of Major Companies

Two insurance industry giants have pulled back from California’s home insurance marketplace, saying that increasing wildfire risk and soaring construction costs have prompted them to stop writing new policies in the nation’s most populous state.

State Farm announced last week it would stop accepting applications for all business and personal lines of property and casualty insurance, citing inflation, a challenging reinsurance market and “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure.” The decision did not impact personal auto insurance.

“We take seriously our responsibility to manage risk,” State Farm said. “It’s necessary to take these actions now to improve the company’s financial strength.”

Allstate, another insurance powerhouse, announced in November it would pause new homeowners, condo and commercial insurance policies in California to protect current customers.

“The cost to insure new home customers in California is far higher than the price they would pay for policies due to wildfires, higher costs for repairing homes and higher reinsurance premiums,” Allstate said in a statement.

California’s unsettled market aligns with trends across the country in which companies are boosting rates, limiting coverage or pulling out completely from regions susceptible to wildfires and other natural disasters in the era of climate change. Florida and Louisiana have struggled to keep healthy insurance markets following extensive damage from hurricanes. Premiums are rising in Colorado amid wildfire threats, and an Oregon effort to map wildfire risk was rejected last year because of fears it would cause premiums to skyrocket.

Scientists say climate change has made the West warmer and drier over the last three decades and will continue to make weather more extreme and wildfires more frequent and destructive. In recent years, California has experienced the largest and most destructive fires in state history.

Some California homeowners already are going without coverage, and a shortage of new policies could make it more difficult to buy a home. A state-run pool that serves as the insurer of last resort for many could face pressure as enrollments surge.

The state pool — the California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan — provides basic fire insurance coverage for properties in high-risk areas when traditional insurance companies will not. Enrollments have jumped in recent years to 272,846 homes in 2022.

“We just don’t have a stable insurance market,” said state Sen. Bill Dodd, a Democrat from Napa, whose Northern California district has been charred by wildfires. “What’s happening is a lot of people in my district and frankly other districts are … going naked — they have no insurance.”

According to data compiled by the industry-supported Insurance Information Institute, California has more than 1.2 million homes at risk for extreme wildfire, far more than any other state.

“The number of acres burned in California has grown steadily in recent years, as more people are moving into fire-prone areas of the state,” the institute said in a statement on the company departures from California. “More homes in harm’s way — combined with rising costs of repairing or replacing houses either damaged or lost to fire — leads to increased insured losses.”

In Colorado, which has been hit by devastating wildfires, insurance premiums have been rising significantly, and some smaller insurance companies have been pulling back from covering properties. A study commissioned by state lawmakers found that 76% of carriers decreased their exposures in Colorado in 2022, leaving the five largest insurance companies to dominate the market.

Florida has struggled to keep the insurance market healthy since 1992, when Hurricane Andrew flattened Homestead, wiped out some insurance carriers and left many remaining companies fearful to write or renew policies in Florida. Risks for carriers also have been growing as climate change increases the strength of hurricanes and intensity of rainstorms.

Louisiana is in the midst of an insurance crisis, exacerbated by hurricanes Delta, Laura, Zeta and Ida in 2020 and 2021. As claims piled up, companies that wrote homeowners policies in the state went insolvent or left, canceling or refusing to renew existing policies.

In California, the loss of large insurers could create more pressure to loosen consumer-minded policies that have held down rates in the state for years. Voters approved Proposition 103 in 1988, which allows the state insurance commissioner to reject proposed rate increases and order refunds. It has been credited with saving consumers billions of dollars, but the industry says it places constraints on accurate underwriting and pricing risk.

Last year, Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara advanced regulations requiring insurers to give discounts to customers if they followed new standards like building fire-resistance roofs and creating defensible space around their homes.

Before their announcements, State Farm and Allstate both had been seeking significant rate increases.

Consumer Watchdog, a nonpartisan advocacy group, said State Farm’s decision was unlawful.

“Insurance companies can’t just stop selling insurance to consumers in order to make more money for themselves,” Harvey Rosenfield, the author of Proposition 103 and the founder of the group, said in a statement. “They have to open their books and get the (state) insurance commissioner’s approval.”

Lara’s office didn’t respond to an email request for comment.

Click here to read the full article in AP News