841,065 left California. Where will you find them?

Nevada had the greatest inflow from California as a share of all residents.

“Numerology” tries to find reality within various measurements of economic and real estate trends.

Buzz: Where did 841,065 ex-Californians go in 2021? That’s an outflow larger than the number of people living in Wyoming or Vermont or Alaska or North Dakota or the District of Columbia.

Source: My trusty spreadsheet looked at the latest state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau to see where that flock might have the biggest clout within their new home state.

Fuzzy math: What might be the potential influence of all these ex-Californians?


Let’s start with the raw number of relocations.

The top destination was Texas, with 107,546 moving from California to the Lone Star State in 2021. Next was Arizona at 69,432, Nevada at 62,437, Washington at 57,576, Oregon at 51,623, Florida at 37,464, Colorado at 33,648, New York at 31,335, Georgia at 28,908, Idaho at 27,193, and Utah at 23,219.

Note: Seven of those 10 states are west of the Mississippi.

Conversely, Delaware got the fewest ex-Californians, with just 116. Then came West Virginia at 368, Vermont at 1,043, North Dakota at 1,525 and South Dakota at 1,670.


Let’s compare those big relocations to state populations. We are translating migration patterns into the odds that you’d bump into an ex-Californian, class of 2021.

There’s a 50-to-1 chance that a resident of Nevada moved there from California in 2021. Yes, 62,437 California transplants vs. a state population of 3.11 million add up to one of every 50 Nevadans. No state had a greater inflow of Californians.

Next on my scorecard of ex-California influence was Idaho at 69-to-1, then Oregon at 82-to-1, Hawaii at 89-to-1, and Arizona at 104-to-1.

Or look at California’s main economic rivals. There’s 271-to-1 odds a Texan is a former Californian, Class of 2021. That’s the 15th highest. In Florida, it’s 576-to-1, No. 34.

And where’s it hardest to find this group of ex-Californians?

Tops? Delaware at 8,575-to-1 odds, then West Virginia at 4,804-to-1, Kentucky at 1,716-to-1, Alabama at 1,481-to-1, and Louisiana at 1,333-to-1.

Bottom line

When Californians leave, they often don’t leave the West.

Click here to read the full article in the Press Enterprise

Migration To California Has Plummeted — From Every State. The Decline Was Especially Extreme For One Region

Every single state in the country sent fewer people to California in the first two years of the pandemic than the prior two years, even as many of those same states saw more Californians move in, according to a Chronicle analysis.

New England had the greatest decrease in California movers of any region, with Vermont, Connecticut and New Hampshire among the states that saw the biggest drops.

The findings come from consumer credit data collected by the California Policy Lab, a research group based out of the University of California. The data, called the University of California Consumer Credit Panel, tracks movements of the approximately 90% of Californian adults with active credit information every quarter. It includes Californians (and ex-Californians) that have moved both within counties and to and from other states.

The data goes through the third quarter of 2021. To analyze moves over comparable time periods, we looked at data from the first seven quarters of 2018-19 and compared them to the same period in 2020-21.

The Chronicle has previously used the data to show that “net domestic migration” to California — the number of people moving into the state minus the number leaving within the U.S. — went down during the pandemic. San Francisco also saw negative net domestic migration.

But while moves from California to other states have increased, the data shows that most of the state’s net migration decrease came from fewer people entering the state, not more people leaving. In fact, every state had more Californians enter it than residents of that state that left for California in the first seven quarters of 2020-2021.

Internal migration is down in the U.S. overall during the pandemic, so the number of people moving to any U.S. state likely declined in this period. But data from the United States Postal Service suggest it the decline in incoming residents was particularly large in California.

“It’s more about [declining] Calentrances than [increased] Calexits,” Natalie Holmes, a research fellow at the California Policy Lab, previously told The Chronicle.

Click here to read the article at SF Chronicle

SoCal Swapping Residents for Aliens at Very Fast Pace

leaving-californiaSouthern California’s population continues to grow slowly, as the area swaps legal residents leaving for legal and illegal aliens arriving.

The combined population of Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties at June 30 was 18.03 million. That amounted to a 12-month population growth of 128,552, or just 0.72 percent, according to the California Department of Finance. That was up from 94,828 in the prior 12-month period.

SoCal’s birth rate dropped from 13.69 per 1,000 residents to a new record low of 12.42 per 1,000 residents, or about 22,356 for the 12-month period. But the death rate increased from 6.26 per 1,000 to 6.71 per 1,000, or 12,078. SoCal’s net population gain was just 10,278.

The big population changes were due to migration. SoCal’s resident population experienced a “net domestic outmigration” of 64,953 for the 12-month period, down from 86,367 for the prior period. About 85 percent of California’s outmigration was concentrated in the middle 20 percent income bracket and the next lower quintile. The Independent Institute Center on Entrepreneurial Innovation found that middle-class outmigration may be explained by California falling to the second-least economically free U.S. state, with a score below that of Mexico.

California’s illegal immigration for the 12-month period was about 96,860, relatively unchanged over the last 5 years. Of the 11.3 million illegal aliens in the U.S., at least  2.35 million live in California. Illegal immigration slowed in the first 9 months of 2017, but accelerated recently with the Trump administration’s negotiations to grant 700,000 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients (or “Dreamers”) “lawful permanent residency” in exchange for a big border wall.

Giving “Dreamers” legal residency would make another 3.45 million of their relatives eligible for chain family migration. With California hosting 235,000, or 33 percent of “Dreamers,” such a deal would give another 1.15 million aliens family migration rights to immigrate to California, according to the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). CIS estimates that 460,000, or about twice the number of “Dreamers,” would use chain migration to immigrate legally to California.

SoCal’s legal immigration for the 12-month period was 86,153, up from 81,450. Legal immigration almost doubled during the Obama administration due to expansion of chain family immigration and eliminating distinguished merit requirements to receive H-1B Visas.

California’s rich did not seem to be upset that the state has been swapping middle class working residents for legal and illegal aliens, many of them poor, for almost two decades. As a result, California leads the nation with about 7,946,000 people, or 20 percent, in poverty.

The rich have not seemed to be worried about the loss of the middle class and the expansion of the poor, even as Governor Jerry Brown and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo have 527 about President Donald Trump’s new tax reforms — with the latter calling the tax plan a “dagger in the heart of New York and California.”

New York and California were the biggest beneficiaries of the nearly $100 billion in state and local tax (SALT) deductions for 2015. But in California, with the highest “per filler” SALT deduction in the nation at just $12,682, the majority of California homeowners will still be big net financial beneficiaries from other positive aspects of the of the Trump tax cut.

But due to a much smaller number of very rich residents owning multi-million-dollar mansions and multiple properties, California has the nation’s largest “per claimant” SALT deduction, at $36,802. That means the very rich Californians that do not outmigrate will be pay an average of $9,916 more in federal taxes.

This article was originally published by Breitbart.com/California

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