End of Brown Era – Pat & Jerry

Photo courtesy Steve Rhodes, flickr

Photo courtesy Steve Rhodes, flickr

At the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs post election conference yesterday at Cal State L.A., political consultant Mike Madrid declared that the Brown era of politics focused on building and infrastructure is over with the end of Jerry Brown’s fourth term as governor. He wasn’t referring to just the current governor but to his father, Pat Brown, as well. Both Browns focused on building from water works and highways to the bullet train.

Darry Sragow, editor of the California Target Book echoed that thought, calling Jerry Brown brilliant, but as governor, he “replicated” his father as a builder of things and didn’t move too far on social programs. Sragow predicted that would change under new governor, Gavin Newsom.

Sragow argued that Newsom would have to do something positive to establish his governorship and create a vision for the future. Making a statement by blowing up the high-speed rail is not the way for Newsom to begin his new administration, Sragow suggested.

Madrid concurred saying Newsom will need to do something big and bold. “That takes money,” Madrid said, “and he’s got it.”

A newly released report from the Legislative Analyst’s Office declared that California’s budget is flush.

Politico California Playbook’s Carla Marinucci, the third panelists, argued that Newsom must be concerned with the jobs picture that would change dramatically as technology and automation advances.

Madrid said the new governor would be defined by how he deals with social problems. He noted that the state’s problems with poverty, income inequality, and housing all happened with Democrats in charge. However, he gave credit to Newsom for raising these issues in the campaign and said he believed Newsom is prepared to address them.

Long time Los Angeles journalist and moderator of the popular “To the Point” radio program, Warren Olney, moderated the panel.

Whatever course Newsom lays out, he will have to navigate the legislature that despite having a supermajority of his own party will have their own ideas how to spend the state’s surplus dollars. Sragow predicted the legislative would be “headstrong” in dealing with the new governor.

When challenged that the supermajority Democrats could splinter into ideological camps and even break apart, Sragow pushed back on the idea saying that the Democratic coalition, despite a wide range of views, would hold.

Republicans, however, are a different story according to the panel.

In reviewing the election results, Marinucci talked of two important groups that deserted Republicans: suburban women and college educated women and men.

Republican consultant Madrid was tougher on his party. He said Republican prospects in California were “nil!” He said conservatism was designed to lift people up through economic policy but that the GOP, which complains about Democratic identity politics, is now a party of white identity politics. He emphasized the point claiming that anyone who is against the boondoggle high speed rail because it would hurt the economy but is for building a wall which would also hurt the economy does so for one reason—unspoken was the issue of race. He predicted the collapse of the GOP coalition of coastal white color Republicans and inland blue collar workers.

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Los Angeles Mayor, Eric Garcetti, delivered the program’s keynote address. In a post speech Q&A, the Pat Brown Institute’s executive director Raphael Sonenshein asked Garcetti, what criteria he would use in deciding whether or not to run for president. Garcetti’s travels to other states and support for Democratic candidates in the recent election have been interpreted as laying the groundwork for a presidential run.

Garcetti said mayors should consider running for the presidency because as chief executives they deal with major issues that a president would face such as security and trade but also gain unique perspectives from local, hands-on issues. He said the key decision point is whether he feels he can add something that is different than other candidates, including new ideas.

If he decides to run he will have lots of company.

ditor and co-publisher of Fox and Hounds Daily.

Why Gas Prices are Going Higher in California

Gas-Pump-blue-generic+flippedIt has become raison d’etre to blame President Trump for everything wrong with California; including higher gasoline prices plaguing our state and contributing to a slowing statewide GDP. But in today’s world that is connected via air, land, sea and increasingly cyberspace; globalization and policies knit countries and states together like never before. Many times rendering geography and borders on maps obsolete – consequently, events in one region or country – affect continents, countries and states. California’s decision to never allow pipelines into the state, drill for oil and natural gas off our coasts and certainly not explore the billions in untapped fossil fuel reserves trapped in the Monterrey Shale is rippling across our state in the form of higher gas prices.

The Monterrey Shale – though considered technically hard to recover – is 64% larger than all other shale plays in the lower 48 US states. To believe the Monterrey Shale can’t be unlocked is economically unwise when you consider that in September Kuwaiti oil exports to the US dropped to zero for the first time since the first Persian Gulf War over rising US production. Furthermore, “U.S. net imports of foreign oil have dropped to a 45-year low.”

If California voters and policymakers wanted to lower gasoline prices, unlock poverty-alleviating affordable energy and create millions of high paying jobs then begin working with our world class universities to unlock the Monterrey Shale. It would be like when Governor Pat Brown built universities, highways and water systems that California and the US are still prospering from today. Our high gasoline prices have nothing to do with Trump, Iranian sanctions tightening supply or OPEC. This is a California problem that historically has some of the highest gas prices in the US, a newly instituted 12-cent per gallon tax and, “the most stringent regulations for its gasoline in the nation(US).”

On the ground it means few refineries are willing to produce gasoline for California and the situation becomes more dire when it was announced in September that the South Coast Quality Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD):

“Proposed an option that would ban a critical refinery process technology at two Southern California refineries that is required for manufacturing cleaner-burning gasoline.”

Consider this – of the 5 largest US states – California is #1 in poverty and Texas is #1 for growth. Texas is also the #3 exploration and production (E&P) producer in the world. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry used fracking as a policy tool, which achieved scientific breakthroughs, and corporate investment unlocking Texas shale basins into tax revenue that now has Texas being the #1 wind power generator in the US as well. Texas figured out how to use wind to their advantage and California could do the same with the Monterrey Shale.

The greatest impact a society can have on poverty, homelessness, and inequality along with overall human flourishing is abundant energy. California is blessed with billions of barrels of oil within our state and coastal waters. Moreover, we have enough natural gas to clean our air and continue dramatically cutting emissions like no continent, country or state can imagine. When the US began converting coal-fired power plants to natural gas this caused America to be the only industrialized country in the world to meet the Kyoto Protocol by dramatically lowering its carbon output and emissions through natural gas.

California should be the leader in natural gas E&P instead of legislating through Senate Bill 100 (SB 100) that our advanced society can only be powered by renewable energy (wind & solar). Imagine what gas prices will be like when renewable energy tries to replace the 6,000 modern-day products that originate from crude oil. Moreover, the 2015 US Department of Energy Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) unveils the biggest reason renewable energy will cause gas prices to continue rising in California when it states:

“Energy storage is a key functionality that can provide flexibility, but there is little information on benefits and costs of storage deployment at the state and regional levels, and there is not broadly accepted framework.”

If California fully deploys SB 100 and there isn’t available energy storage – and currently there isn’t according to the Los Angeles Times – then energy from electricity and gasoline prices will naturally rise. Supply will not be able to keep up with demand based upon storage capacity alone.

Back to no interstate pipelines – if California doesn’t alleviate that problem – then gasoline refined outside the state will increase and this will cause intensifying the carbon-intensive use of trucking and shipping petroleum for economic continuity. Domestic and foreign refineries that have less environmental regulations will lead to increased global emissions; and ironically trucking and shipping crude oil, petroleum and gasoline have higher carbon footprints. California will then continue increasing gasoline prices, its carbon footprint and endangering environmental safety since pipelines are the safest method to import oil over ships, trucks or railways. The wise environmental policy choice would be to build pipelines.

Our policymakers should begin understanding that unweaving the intricacies of fossil fuel from our economy is like undoing globalization for trade and commerce. Everything is now interlinked whether we like it or not. Oil and natural gas can power our future or increasing our use of renewable energy and demonizing anyone who doesn’t share the belief that the environment takes precedence over California economic activity can be our downfall.

But with gas prices rising and foolishly slashing fossil fuel use instead of taking Texas’ approach to energy (the all of the above approach: fossil fuels and renewables working together) California voters, citizens and policymakers only have ourselves to blame when gas prices rocket into the $5 per gallon range. With the US shale revolution taking place there is no reason why our prices shouldn’t be in the $2.50-$3 range. Environmental taxes and regulations are choking our economy, increasing our poverty and a big reason business is leaving California.

Todd Royal is an independent public policy consultant focusing on the geopolitical implications of energy based in Los Angeles, California.

This article was originally published by Fox and Hounds Daily

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