GOP Voters Favor DeSantis

Poll of Californians has Trump trailing for 2024 nod

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has surged to a lead among California Republicans over former President Trump for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, a poll released Friday found.

About 37% of GOP voters backed DeSantis, while 29% preferred Trump, according to the new UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. These numbers are a near mirror image of the support for the two in an August poll conducted by Berkeley.

Other hopefuls trailed far behind, with none receiving more than 7% in the poll.

California matters to Republican presidential contenders despite its overall Democratic majority. Nearly 2.3 million voters cast ballots for Trump in California’s March 2020 primary, the most in any state in the nation.

DeSantis has taken a particularly strong lead among Republican voters with a college degree, who back him by more than 2 to 1 over Trump. The former president has the support of Republicans who did not attend college, and the two run close to even among those who have some college experience but not a four-year degree.

Among California Republicans who voted for Trump in 2020, DeSantis leads by 11 percentage points in the new poll; he trailed Trump by 14 points among such voters six months ago.

“There is serious defection among his ranks,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the IGS poll. “These voters are now on board with DeSantis more than Trump. That’s fairly significant.”

The poll results come just over a week before DeSantis is scheduled to visit Southern California, with speeches in Orange County and at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, spots where he will meet with well-heeled Republican donors and party leaders.

The survey also illuminated Californians’ complicated views about President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in a state where fellow Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2 to 1 among registered voters.

Although Biden’s approval ratings improved in recent months, with 57% of the state’s voters now praising his job performance, the same share of voters don’t want the 80-year-old to run for reelection next year.

Even with Harris’ California roots, nearly 6 in 10 of those surveyed were not enthusiastic about her running for the White House if Biden decides to not seek another term. She grew up in the Bay Area and served as San Francisco’s district attorney, the state’s attorney general and California’s U.S. senator.

“Usually, it’s the case that people in your own area are most positive about you, and people outside of your area learn more about you and eventually get on board. That hasn’t been the case for Kamala,” DiCamillo said. “In fact, looking at … the enthusiasm [voters have for her running] for president, in the Bay Area, it’s less than it is in Los Angeles. That’s telling to me. She’s never had a real strong base of support in the Bay Area, and it’s true the entire two-year period of following her as vice president.”

Regardless of those qualms, barring an unprecedented political shift, California’s 54 electoral votes will easily wind up in Democrats’ column in the November 2024 presidential election. Biden leads DeSantis by 23 points among the state’s voters in a hypothetical match-up and beats Trump by 30 points, according to the poll. In 2020, Biden bested Trump by 29% in California.

The state’s presidential primary, which will occur in March next year, could be pivotal in deciding the Republican nomination. California will once again have the largest delegation at the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the party will officially select its nominee.

In addition, the state is home to an enormous group of wealthy donors. In 2020, Trump and his supporting groups received more than $92 million from California donors, making the state the third-largest home of his financial backers, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. The numbers are significant undercounts because they do not include contributions to political action committees or individual donations under $200.

This is one major reason why prominent Republicans, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are among the White House hopefuls who have visited the state since the last presidential election.

Haley recently announced a 2024 presidential bid; Pence, Pompeo and others are believed to be eyeing a bid.

Along with Trump and DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo and Haley were among the 11 Republicans included in the potential presidential field in the Berkeley IGS poll.

DeSantis is scheduled to speak at the Reagan Library as well as at a fundraiser for the Orange County GOP on March 5. Although it’s unclear whether he is raising money for committees supporting his electoral efforts, DeSantis will meet and mingle with major GOP donors at the events, which are taking place in citadels of wealthy and well-connected conservatives, according to sources familiar with his plans.

The polling shows why such regions may be essential to the DeSantis campaign if he runs. Republican voters who are more educated and wealthier are far more likely to support the Florida governor over Trump.

GOP college graduates backed DeSantis over Trump, 39% to 21%, in the poll, while Republicans with a postgraduate education preferred DeSantis over Trump by nearly 3 to 1. By contrast, Republican voters with no more than a high school education preferred Trump over DeSantis, 45% to 30%.

There were similar disparities among voters with different incomes, with GOP voters in wealthier California households being far more likely to support DeSantis than Trump.

White voters without a college education have long been Trump’s strongest supporters, and his weakness among college-educated voters, which emerged during the 2016 election, helped Democrats win in former conservative bastions such as Orange County that year — the first time the county supported a Democrat for president since the Great Depression. That dynamic was evident in the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential contest.

The poll indicates that the college divide is splitting Republican ranks, echoing other surveys that have shown that division nationally.

That could benefit DeSantis in states such as California, in which college graduates make up a large share of the electorate. But it could boost Trump elsewhere in the nation, including parts of the South and the Midwest, where non-college-educated voters dominated GOP primaries.

Voters who stopped their education after high school or didn’t receive their high school degree account for 18% of the Republican electorate in California but made up just over 1 in 3 GOP voters nationwide in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.

DiCamillo said GOP voters who have a high school degree or didn’t complete it have remained consistent in their support for Trump, which makes sense because they were the foundation of his base.

“But the other segments are moving,” he said. “That’s the vulnerability Trump has this time around … at least in California.”

Click here to read the full article at LA Times

2020 Democrats grapple with California’s electoral buzz saw

Democratic presidential candidates are confronting the Democratic National Committee’s tough standards to get on the debate stage, trying to distinguish themselves from their many rivals and plotting how to win the critical four early voting states. That leaves them barely enough time to think about what would come next.

Next would be California, an electoral buzz saw that costs tens of millions of dollars to compete in and is the polar opposite of the early states that reward hustle, on-the-ground attention and local staff. Campaigns in California, which has about four times as many Democratic voters as Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada combined, are won and lost through hugely expensive advertising and free media that reach the state’s diverse, far-flung population.

Fourteen presidential candidates flocked to the state last weekend to speak to the most fervent activists at the California Democratic Party’s convention, making their pitches on why they’re best poised to lead the party against President Donald Trump. But beyond the speeches and rallies, few of them seem to have figured out how to crack the political puzzle that is California, the nation’s most populous, and famously liberal, state. …

Click here to read the full article from the Associated Press

Why Is Southern California Underrepresented in State and National Politics?

SoCalRECLAIMING THE POWER-For the first time in decades, California is poised to play a significant role in determining each party’s presidential nominee. Being a reliably blue state, presidential candidates in the recent years have done little campaigning in the Golden State. As Angelenos know, whenever President Barack Obama’s entourage arrives in town, Southern California in particular has served little purpose in national and state politics other than as a source of money from the region’s Hollywood elite.

Now that this year’s candidates for president will have to actively campaign in Southern California rather than fly in just to raise money, SoCal voters must evaluate how they lost their influence in national politics and how to re-exert their political power going forward.

To Californians, Southern California generally encompasses the entire region south of the Grapevine in the southern edge of the San Joaquin Valley to include the counties of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Orange, Imperial, San Bernardino, San Diego and Riverside. The region alone has a total population of 22.6 million people, which is more populous than every state except for Texas. Despite its large geographic area and population, Southern California is noticeably underrepresented in both state and national politics.

Statewide, seven of the eight constitutional offices (governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, treasurer, controller, insurance commissioner and superintendent of public education) and the two U.S. Senators are all from Northern California – Secretary of State Alex Padilla is the lone officeholder from Southern California.

Of the 52 representatives of California’s delegation to the U.S. Congress, Rep. Ed Royce, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is the only representative from Southern California to hold a leadership position.

Compare California’s national representation with two other large states: New York and Florida. New York has three locals running for president: Donald Trump; Secretary Hillary Clinton, who represented the Empire State in the Senate; and Senator Bernie Sanders, who was born and raised in Brooklyn.

Another New Yorker, Senator Chuck Schumer, is the presumed next Senate Minority Leader.

Florida sent two of their politicians into the Republican presidential primary: Senator Marco Rubio and former governor Jeb Bush.

Additionally, Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee.

Even Wisconsin has two high-profile leaders in national politics. Paul Ryan is the Speaker of the House and Reince Priebus is the chair of the Republican National Committee.

The lone Californian in either party’s presidential primary was Carly Fiorina; however, she was based out of Silicon Valley in the north.

California’s lone representation on the U.S. Supreme Court, Justice Anthony Kennedy, is another NoCal native.

SoCal’s lack of representation in state and national politics contradicts the region’s rich history in politics. Two U.S. presidents, Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon, built their political careers in Southern California.

Legendary Chief Justice Earl Warren, who championed civil rights in multiple historic Supreme Court cases to include Brown vs. Board of Education, was born in Los Angeles.

Despite this history, why is Southern California underrepresented in state and national politics?

Joel Kotkin, fellow of urban studies at Chapman University in Orange County, pinpoints the region’s loss in economic power at the end of the Cold War as the primary cause of the loss in political representation.

“Aerospace, homebuilding, agribusiness … large parts of the whole industrial belt got wiped out,” laments Kotkin.

According to Kotkin, when the Cold War ended, military bases closed down taking with them people and defense contractors, which decimated the homebuilding and aerospace industries.

Furthermore, environmentalist economic policies imposed by Bay Area progressives forced the energy and agriculture businesses out of Southern California.

Ultimately, the loss of a strong business community in the Los Angeles metropolitan area shifted the economic and political power of California to the Bay Area, bolstered by the technology industry in Silicon Valley.

Kotkin also cites low voter participation rates as another cause of So Cal’s lack of representation. “You have a largely poor minority population in a one party setting, so why should anyone vote?” Kotkin observes.

In the 2015 Los Angeles municipal elections voter participation plunged to an embarrassing 8.6 percent. In the 2012 presidential election, only 49.6 percent of registered voters in Los Angeles County voted, compared to 57.5 percent nationally and 72 percent across all of California.

San Diego County did slightly better than LA County in their 2014 municipal elections in which 20 percent of registered voters voted.

Jennifer Walsh, Dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Science at Azusa Pacific University, explains that the 2010 Citizens Redistricting Commission is one of the reasons for SoCal’s lack of national representation.

Walsh points to Representatives Jerry Lewis and David Dreier, who chaired the House Appropriations and House Rules committees, respectively, as examples of how the Citizens Redistricting Commission forced powerful So Cal representatives into retirement.

“Representatives, like Dreier,” Walsh explains, “faced substantial re-election hurdles in newly drawn districts, and, as a result, many, like Dreier, opted to retire rather than lose.”

Another possible cause is the financial expense required to run campaign advertisements in the country’s second largest media market.

Walsh notes, “The Los Angeles media market is one of the most expensive in the nation, so candidates for legislative positions — or even statewide offices for that matter — find rates for radio and television advertising on these media channels prohibitive.”

“In comparison,” she continues, “Northern California candidates can do more targeted advertising for the same amount of money, and, over time, this builds name recognition with the voters. So, when members of the legislature are termed out of office and run for statewide office, they have an advantage.”

Better representation in national politics is essential in order for Southern California to exert influence on the issues that are most important to the region. Policy concerns regarding international trade, immigration, copyrights and water all directly affect the interests of Southern California’s residents.

For example, the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement currently stalled in Congress features language that would ease customs documentation for imports. According to the OECD, “crossing the border” increases the costs of goods by 24 percent. Furthermore, with the widening of the Panama Canal, the So Cal ports are now facing competition from ports in the Gulf of Mexico for imports from Asia. Passing TPP could alleviate regulatory burdens on imports and exports coming through the Port of Los Angeles, consequently increasing the volume of traffic at the port.

Another issue where Southern California could exert influence in national politics is on immigration. There are an estimated 1.2 million illegal immigrants currently residing in Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties; Congress’s failure to pass immigration reform in 2010 and 2013 means that those 1.2 million will continue to live in the shadows. A more powerful voice in national politics could advocate for legal status for those illegal immigrants in the region who are unable to contribute to the local economy because of their undocumented status.

SoCal’s burgeoning technology industries also have a direct interest in the expansion of H1B visas for high skilled labor. For the fourth consecutive year demand for H1B visas has surpassed the 85,000 allotted visasavailable causing the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services agency to award the visas by lottery. With stronger representation in leadership positions in Congress, SoCal representatives could demand the federal government to expand the H1B visas available in order to satisfy the demand for local businesses.

In order for SoCal residents to achieve favorable reforms that protect and expand economic opportunity in those industries, Southern Californians will need to become more active in the political process by electing representatives who will advocate those issues in Congress by assuming influential leadership positions.

Southern Californians also need to support candidates from their region who run for statewide office. Currently, Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, whose district includes Anaheim and Santa Ana, is running for the Senate seat being vacated by Senator Barbara Boxer. Former L.A. mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, and current San Diego mayor, Kevin Faulconer, are both rumored to have interest in running for the governorship in 2018.

As the presidential campaign soon shifts to California, Southern Californians have the opportunity to demand to be more than a money source for presidential candidates. SoCal residents should wield their influence to extract commitments from presidential candidates to pursue interests relevant to the region.

Originally published in


Trump Has Big Lead in New California Poll

In a new poll on the eve of two crucial primary votes in Ohio and Florida, Donald J. Trump has a commanding lead among Republicans in California, which is the state with the largest single remaining source of delegates on the path to the Party’s nomination for President.

When matched with his three other contenders: Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and Marco Rubio, Trump wins the “closed” California Republican primary with 38.3%  of the GOP vote, compared to 22.4% for Cruz, 19.7% for Kasich, and 10.1% for Rubio.  Voters registering an “undecided” opinion were 9.6%.  Trump’s almost 16% advantage over Cruz is statistically significant and well above the margin of error of the poll, which is 4.8%.  The poll results demonstrate that Trump’s standing among Republicans in the Golden State has grown significantly in the last two months.  (In January, in a similar poll using a smaller sample size, the Field Organization pegged Ted Cruz as the leader in California, 25% to 23% for Trump.)  Trump’s lead is commanding in all four “Board of Equalization” districts across the state, suggesting if the election were held today, that he would win in virtually all of the state’s Congressional Districts and capture all of the state’s delegates.

Donald Trump

A total of 172 delegates to the Republican National Convention are up for grabs in the 2016 California primary election, more than 7% of all delegates who will decide the next Republican Presidential nominee, and 14% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

The poll was commissioned by Landslide Communications.   This new Landslide Communication’s California Poll of Republican Presidential Preferences of likely Republican voters in the 2016 primary election is the second such poll to be released.  In early February, 2015, Landslide released a similar poll showing Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker leading in the state, with similar results confirmed in a subsequent Field Organization poll a week later using a smaller sample size.

Poll Frequencies, NSON Opinion Research’s Summary, and Demographic Cross Tabs are available for download at the end of this article.

Further Details on Landslide’s California Poll appear below.

 California’s importance in 2016 Presidential election to Republicans:

California is a decidedly “blue” state in which Democratic Governor Jerry Brown recently won re-election by over one million votes, bucking a national trend that favored Republicans.  And a Republican candidate for President has not won the state of California since 1988.

However, because California is the largest state in the union by population, with 53 Congressional districts, California has a very large delegation up for grabs for GOP presidential contenders at the next Republican National Convention.

There will likely be a total of 2,461 delegates at the 2016 GOP Convention. California is allotted 172 of those delegates, about 7% of the total. Of California’s delegates, 10 are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. In addition, a candidate who finishes first in any one of California’s 53 Congressional districts is awarded 3 delegates. The state party chairman and two national committee members are also delegates.  The winning margin at the Republican National Convention will be 1,230 delegates. Theoretically, a candidate who could sweep California’s Republican Presidential primary election could count on the state to deliver just over 14% of the total delegates needed for victory.

List of Presidential contenders in poll:

Poll participants were read a randomized list of the 4 candidates to choose from.

Poll questions:

The poll questions were prepared by James V. Lacy, Managing Partner of Landslide Communications, Inc.  Landslide is one of the largest producers of election slate mail in California. Lacy is the author of the book “Taxifornia” and editor and contributing author of “Taxifornia 2016: 14 Essays on the Future of California” available at, and is a frequent guest commentator on California issues on Fox Business News Channel’s “Varney & Company.” Lacy is also an election law and nonprofit organization attorney through his law firm, Wewer & Lacy, LLP, and is a recipient of the American Association of Political Consultant’s “Pollie” Award. Lacy is not associated with any Presidential campaign. Landslide Communications, Inc., has a history of conducting polls in California, including presidential polling and in the 52nd Congressional District race in 2014 between incumbent Scott Peters and Republican challenger Carl DeMaio.

Interview list:

The list used to make the calls was based on a sophisticated, representative election turn-out model for likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election prepared by Political Data, Inc., located in Norwalk, a respected source of voter files.

To account for a slight bias in the delegate selection process that awards a small “bonus” pool of delegates based on the statewide result, the interview list was balanced for region by Board of Equalization District, with the two more Republican leaning BOE districts of four having marginally more interviews reflected in the statewide total than average, to most accurately reflect the opinion of California’s Republican population.

Interviews and data compilation:

The poll questions were completed by 407 likely Republican voters in the 2016 California Presidential primary election based on Political Data’s model. (The Landslide Communication’s sample size is 25% larger than the sample size used by the Field Organization for similar polling in California.)  The sample size is considered large enough by NSON Opinion Strategy, a respected strategic public opinion research company based in Salt Lake City, Utah, to offer statistical significance in outcome, with +/- 4.8% margin of error at a 95% confidence level statewide. Telephone survey interviews were conducted statewide over two days from Wednesday, March 9th through Thursday, March 10th, by NSON Opinion Strategy.

A summary of the poll prepared by NSON, along with “frequencies” and “crosstabs” may be downloaded below.

For comment, please contact James V. Lacy at 714-878-6191.

James V. Lacy is publisher of California Political Review.

CA Rep Pres Pri – Frequencies

16′ CA GOP Presidential Primary Poll (March)

CA Rep Pres Pri – Crosstab Tables