One of the world’s top climate models puts a bull’s-eye on the California coast as El Niño strengthens, with a greater than 90% chance of above-normal precipitation from December through February. There’s at least a 70% chance of well-above-normal precipitation.
That outlook is from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, which on Wednesday released its first full supercomputer forecast that includes 51 model simulations of winter.
Climate model predictions are not meant to be taken with ultra-specificity.
Their low resolution cannot accurately capture hills, coastlines and sharp differences in terrain, like the area between San Francisco Bay and Mount Tamalpais. That’s important because the model artificially raises the elevation of the California coast and inflates precipitation predictions as a result, since mountains generally get more rain than valleys.
Despite the limitations of seasonal weather models, the European Center notes simulations are a useful starting point for representing “larger-scale weather patterns,” like stronger and more frequent Pacific storms.












