The failure of the campaign to pass Proposition 39 in light of widespread national successes deserves some focus
Initiative measures to require photo identification or proof of citizenship appeared on the ballots of at least 8 states in this week’s election. In 7 of those states the measures passed – Nevada, North Carolina, Arkansas, Ohio Alaska, Kansas, and Wyoming.
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And in four of those states incumbent Republican Senators lost, but the voters still managed to pass Voter ID laws.
Yet Voter ID was defeated in California, profoundly so.
It is a convenient excuse for those being called to account on Prop. 39 to blame President Trump’s unfavorability in California for the loss, or even deflect blame to Republican voters themselves for “not turning out”. These are parts of the overall reason for the loss, but ones that could have been worked around by campaign strategists (Prop. 39 advertising eventually included people saying things like “I hate Trump” and “I didn’t vote for Trump”), given the widespread support FOR Proposition 39 going back to its inception.
A UC Berkeley poll had Prop. 39 winning by 17 points last April. A poll in mid-Sept. had it losing by 13 points. That swing against Prop. 39 was 30 points in 5 months. In the current election results, Prop. 39 is losing even by more, by 59% No and 41% Yes. That means the swing AGAINST Prop. 39 during the campaign was 36 points! Quite remarkable, and evidencing a spectacular failure of the campaign developed and managed by Yes on 39 committees.
The failure of the Prop. 39 campaign in light of the wonderful victory of the defeat of the Proposition 40 billionaire’s tax is especially damning.
There is room for many opinions on why Prop. 39 resulted in a train wreck. But at the risk of repeating myself, blaming Trump and Republican turnout are cheap diversions from its sponsors to accepting responsibility for an inept use of campaign resources. Trump is also unpopular in the other 7 states that passed voter ID laws last Tuesday, and that did not stop them from winning.
From my perspective, the Prop. 39 campaign failed from the very beginning to separate itself from Trump and his failed Save America Act. When they were winning by 17 points in April, it would have been obvious that opponents would campaign against it as “Trump, Trump, Trump!” From the beginning, the Prop. 39 campaign failed to effectively separate itself from Trump. That was a mistake, probably made because the politicians behind the measure were fearful of angering the President. In this they were wrong. If Trump got angry about it, it would have helped Prop. 39 to win, especially with Democrat voters needed for victory. But those politicians also cared about their own standing with the White House, so they held their punches and made them too late. This was selfish of them.
Click here to read the full article at James V. Lacy’s Substack











