Adam Schiff to be sworn into the Senate, where he wants to be more than a Trump antagonist

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrat Adam Schiff stood on the Senate floor almost five years ago as a House impeachment manager and made a passionate case that Donald Trump should be removed from office for abusing the power of the presidency. “If right doesn’t matter, we’re lost,” he told the senators, his voice cracking at one point.

The Republican-led Senate wasn’t convinced, and senators voted to acquit Trump on the Democratic-led impeachment charges over his dealings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump would survive a second impeachment a year later after his supporters stormed the Capitol and tried to overturn his defeat.

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Now Trump is headed back to the White House, politically stronger than ever and with a firm hold over what will be a unified Republican Congress. And Schiff, one of Trump’s biggest foils, will be sworn into the Senate on Monday as part of a Democratic caucus that is headed into the minority and has been so far restrained in opposing the returning president, taking more of a wait-and-see approach in the weeks before he is sworn into office.

As California’s newest senator, Schiff says he’s not going to shy away from familiar territory — opposing Trump when he feels it necessary. But he’s also hoping to be known for bipartisanship, as well, after campaigning in Republican areas of his state and working to learn more about rural issues that weren’t in his portfolio in his urban Los Angeles House district.

“I think being there and letting folks get to know me, kick the tires a bit, helps overcome some of the sort of Fox News stereotypes,” Schiff said of the conservative news channel’s focus on him as he challenged Trump in his first term. He says he also sees that outreach as a way to gain insight into Democrats’ way forward after losses in the November elections.

Schiff will be sworn in weeks before the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3 because he is filling the seat of longtime Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died last year. He will enter the Senate early this week alongside Democratic House colleague Andy Kim of New Jersey, who is filling the term of former New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez after he was convicted on federal bribery charges and resigned.

Bipartisanship was important to Feinstein, who often worked across the aisle and developed close relationships with other senators. But her work with Republicans also drew frequent criticism from California’s liberal voters.

Feinstein “was able to do a couple things simultaneously, which I’m going to need to try to do as well, and that is work with others to deliver for the state, work across party lines to get things done, and at the same time, stand up and defend people’s rights and their freedom and their values when those things are threatened,” Schiff told The Associated Press in an interview ahead of his swearing-in.

He says those priorities will frequently be at odds in the era of Trump, “and so I’ll have to try to do both.”

Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii, who has spent time with Schiff as he prepares to enter the Senate, says he thinks Schiff has the “right approach” in asking questions of other senators and refraining from “opining at every opportunity.”

“Everybody understands his capabilities, but he also understands that he’s a freshman,” Schatz says, and it’s appreciated when “someone of his stature understands that he’s joining a team here.”

Still, Schiff, who was censured by House Republicans last year for his involvement in investigations into Trump’s ties to Russia, won’t be able immediately to shake his longtime role as a chief Trump antagonist. The former House Intelligence Committee chairman is more well-known than most of his fellow incoming freshmen, and he has been calling Trump out on social media in recent weeks and criticizing some of his Cabinet nominees as many of his fellow Democrats have chosen to remain quiet.

Schiff posted on X last week that FBI director nominee Kash Patel, a former GOP staffer on the House intelligence panel, is “more suited as internet troll than FBI Director” and the “Senate must reject him.”

He could become part of the story as well as Trump has vowed revenge on people he views as his political enemies. President Joe Biden has been considering preemptive pardons for aides and allies like Schiff who tried to hold Trump accountable for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Trump once suggested Schiff should be arrested for treason and has called him an “enemy from within.”

Schiff, though, says he doesn’t think that’s necessary. He said Biden shouldn’t use his remaining days in office to defend him or any others who are in Trump’s crosshairs.

Click here to read the full article in AP News

Schiff, Garvey Face Off at The U.S. Senate Candidate Forum In Glendale

Candidates meet for first time since February

The first California U.S. Senate candidate forum was held at the Grand Central Air Terminal Museum in Glendale on Tuesday, with former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) facing off against Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) for the seat held by the late Senator Diane Feinstein for the first time one on one.

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Since Garvey and Schiff won the Primary back in March, Schiff has a significant lead in polls, with Garvey only polling around the mid-30s. However, with less than a month to go before the election, and with undecided voters still in double digit percentages, both candidates are still fighting for last minute surges, with Garvey hoping to be the first GOP Senate candidate to get above 40% in decades.

On Tuesday they met in Glendale where the two were fired questions by KABC Los Angeles anchor Marc Brown, KGO San Francisco anchor Kristen Sze, KFSN anchor Warren Armstrong, and Univision Los Angeles anchor Gabriella Teissier. The Globe was there as well during the hour long event, and the issues covered pretty much every hot button issue out there.

For the most part, both candidates didn’t make it a debate and simply kept to the forum question and answer format. But on a few issues, such as healthcare, they launched into each other, with Schiff repeatedly trying to tie in Garvey to Trump, and Garvey saying again and again how Schiff did nothing substantial while in Congress for 24 years. At one point early on, Schiff even said, “We have a dictator trying to become president,” only for Garvey to give a Reaganesque response of “There you go again.”

For the first question on Gun Control, the moderators pointed out how Feinstein was big on the issue and what their individual stances on it were.

Garvey said “I believe in the second amendment, I have sympathy for victims of the shootings.” But he also then said he would support more stringent background checks. Meanwhile, Schiff responded, attacking the NRA, supporting an assault weapons ban and more gun control.

Environmental and water issues were also highlighted. Schiff generally was more in support of environmental regulations and said that fighting climate change should take focus on these matters. He mentioned meeting Californians who couldn’t get house insurance because of the high fire risk, and that more renewable energy, and better technology to fight fires more effectively was needed. He even pointed out backing legislation in Congress to allow night time helicopter drops of water battling the U.S. Forest service to allow it. He also said more efficient ways to use and recycle water were needed.

Schiff and Garvey on the issues

In contrast, Garvey said that that water was critical, saying that “Water is the platinum, oil is the gold.” He pointed out that environmentalists needed to work with farmers and those in cities to create solution, something Schiff later also supported. Schiff was also a target for Garvey, with Garvey saying that Schiff hasn’t budged the issue since coming into office in Congress.

“Over these 24 years Schiff hasn’t been able to do anything about it. He can’t cure any of the problems.” responded Garvey.

Abortion proved more heated. While Garvey said he was Catholic and supported the right for abortions if it was the voice of Californians, Schiff went a step further and said he supported a national right for abortions, saying that Californians wanted a national right to reproductive freedoms. Garvey soon volleyed back saying “He believes democracy packing the court and deconstruction of the constitution. He is about doing away and downplaying the second amendment.” This caused Schiff to say over the interjecting moderator “Californians aren’t looking for some MAGA mini-me in a baseball uniform.”

Israel was also contentious. While both candidates supported Israel and called them an ally, Schiff went as far as to say that Americans overseas needed to be protected and that a two-state solution was the only way for peace. Garvey mentioned his recent Israel trip about he was to all the sites linked to the October 7th massacre and visited families of hostages. He then blamed the Obama and Biden administrations for giving money to Iran and stated “There will never be a two state solution, as one will try to decimate the other.”

Click here to read the full article in California Globe

The 2024 California U.S. Senate Race Schiff v. Garvey: Where It Currently Stands

Less than 3 months remain until the November election

Since the last update in early July, California’s U.S. Senate race between Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former pro baseball star Steve Garvey (R) has entered the dog days of summer. Both Schiff and Garvey found both honorable common ground and went to some of the nastiest fighting of the entire campaign. With the Trump assassination attempt and Biden’s announcement that he won’t run for reelection, both candidates even found time in the national spotlight. With less than 3 months to go before election day on November 5th, this is where the Senate race stands now.

What have the candidates been up to?

Let’s start with the Schiffster. Schiff started July by continually not saying whether or not he would be calling for Biden to step aside in the race. He didn’t even give a vote of confidence for Biden. He was just…there. Finally, after the Trump assassination attempt led to Trump surging in the polls, Schiff made his move and said he should step aside. Once Biden did leave, he fully backed Harris. Oh, he’s also had some rallies and fundraisers in there, but by now we’ve all gotten used to him going up to a podium in his Napa Valley garden party attire and him giving Schiffbot 2.0 speeches, so just think of those.

Garvey had a surprisingly successful July. After months of Schiff going after Garvey not committing on supporting Trump, Garvey managed to do the same to Schiff on Biden support for awhile. Then came the fact that Garvey managed to outraise Schiff in Q2 2024. It was only by $1.2 million, with Schiff still having much more in total than him, but the Democrats losing to the Republicans in fundraising in California in a major race is something that hasn’t happened in quite some time.

And for those looking for some sort of hope that the race is civil, both candidates put aside their differences and united behind condemning the assassination attempt on Trump. There’s still a line politicians won’t cross, and regardless of political thought, it’s good to see that Schiff and Garvey are on the right side.

Who is backing who?

Nothing has changed since a month ago. We’ll see a flurry soon, especially if Schiff loses ground. But right now in the world of endorsements, it’s pretty much operating on the fact that you know who is in their corner.

How is polling going?

The last poll was early July where Schiff was up over Garvey 64% to 33%. According to the June 2024 PPIC poll, Schiff was leading Garvey 62% to 37%. However, as previously noted, PPIC polls should be taken with a grain of salt. The more accurate Berkeley IGS is due to come out soon, as are others, which should paint a more accurate picture of where things are.

Click here to read the full article in Caifornia Globe

Schiff, Garvey Lead in Senate Survey

Voters favor a contest between Democrat and former Dodger in November, poll finds.

Rep. Adam B. Schiff’s campaign strategy of spending millions to highlight Republican Senate candidate Steve Garvey’s conservative record appears to have paid off, making Garvey a strong favorite to emerge from Tuesday’s primary as Schiff’s general election opponent.

That’s the finding of the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Times. The survey finds Schiff, the veteran Democratic congressman from Burbank, and Garvey, the former Dodgers star first baseman, in effect tied for the lead in the primary just days before the election.

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Schiff’s strategy appears to be boxing out his chief rival, Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine, a fellow Democrat, who trails in third.

In the general election, Schiff would be an overwhelming favorite to beat Garvey in heavily Democratic California. The poll finds Schiff starting with a significant lead in a two-way matchup, 53% to 38%, with 9% undecided. By contrast, a general election between Schiff and Porter would start out tied, with 4 in 10 voters undecided, the poll found.

In the primary, Garvey is favored by 27% of likely voters, Schiff 25% and Porter 19%. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) garners 8%, while 12% of likely voters pick a different candidate and 9% are undecided.

Political consultants following the returns of mailed ballots expect that Tuesday’s primary will be a low-turnout affair, with an electorate that is significantly older, whiter and more Republican than the state’s voter population as a whole.

“The composition of the turnout works to the advantage of Schiff and Garvey and to the detriment of Porter,” who is more popular with younger voters, said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies poll and a longtime California pollster.

A low turnout that is more conservative than the norm could also mean trouble for Proposition 1, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s latest effort to address homelessness and change the state’s 20-year-old Mental Health Services Act.

The ballot measure includes $6.4 billion in bonds to build facilities to provide 10,000 new treatment beds for people with severe mental illness.

Half of likely voters back the initiative, 34% oppose it and 16% remain undecided, according to the poll. Although that’s a significant lead, backers of ballot measures generally want to see support above 50% because undecided voters tend to vote no.

Several major Republican figures have endorsed the bond measure, but the poll shows a large majority of Republican voters oppose it, while Democrats support it.

“The dynamics of low-turnout California elections are pretty set in stone,” said political data expert Paul Mitchell.

“Those dynamics are old people over-perform, homeowners over-perform. Latinos under-perform and Republicans over-perform,” he said. That combination gives Garvey a significant boost at this stage of the election, he added.

Among the 20% of people who already had voted by the time the poll wrapped up Tuesday, Schiff led with 35%, with Garvey at 28%. Garvey does better with people who plan to vote on election day, while Schiff does better with people who plan to drop off their ballots before election day, the poll showed.

For much of last year, the Senate race was mostly defined by Lee, Porter and Schiff — a trio of Democrats with similar voting records — all looking for ways to stand out in a contest to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Schiff led for much of last year with Porter nipping at his heels.

Both raised millions of dollars powered by their respective abilities to appeal to Democrats across the country.

Porter’s inquisitions of Wall Street executives during congressional hearings made her a favorite of liberal voters — particularly young ones — angry about inequality and corporate greed.

Schiff’s reputation as one of former President Trump’s leading opponents created a wellspring of loyalty among Democratic voters who were impressed by his work when he was chair of the House Intelligence Committee and a prominent impeachment manager.

Older voters also were drawn to Schiff, who garnered the endorsement of most the party’s established leadership, starting with former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).

Those factors all had the makings for a generational clash among Democrats until Garvey joined the fray in October.

Garvey’s entry gave Schiff the opportunity to take advantage of the state’s top-two primary system, in which the two candidates who get the most votes in the primary advance to the general election, regardless of party.

Because Democrats outnumber Republicans by such a wide margin in California, a Democrat who ends up with a Republican opponent in a statewide general election starts out with a huge edge.

Schiff has spent upward of $25 million on television advertising, most of which has framed the contest as a two-candidate race between him and Garvey. An outside group of Schiff allies has spent roughly an additional $10 million on a similar effort.

Garvey’s campaign has spent just $1.4 million through mid-February.

Schiff’s ads, which make no mention of Porter, describe Garvey as “too conservative for California.” They appear to have had the intended effect of endearing Garvey, a first-time candidate, to Republicans who previously knew little about him other than his past as a baseball star. About two-thirds of likely Republican voters now support him, the poll found.

Porter has also been subjected to roughly $10 million in attack ads from an outside group funded by by Silicon Valley billionaires and cryptocurrency investors.

That appears to have hurt her standing among voters. In the current poll, 27% of likely voters had an unfavorable view of her — an 11-percentage-point jump from the last survey in early January. Her image remains favorable overall, however, with 45% of likely voters seeing her favorably, and 28% of likely voters having no opinion of her.

As Garvey, with Schiff’s help, consolidated the Republican vote, the congressman moved ahead among Democrats. The poll found him leading Porter among Democratic voters, 40% to 30%.

Garvey, Schiff and Porter are basically tied among No Party Preference voters.

Schiff has the edge in the state’s two largest population centers, Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area. In the Bay Area, he has the support of 28% of voters, with Porter in second at 24%. In Los Angeles County, his home turf, Schiff has 28%, with Garvey in second at 22%.

In the last Times poll in January, Porter led on her home turf, Orange County, by double digits. Now Garvey has leapfrogged her in the populous county, grabbing 34% support among likely voters. Porter has 30%.

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

Powerful women are backing a man for California’s Senate seat

Last weekend in Long Beach, Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine met with voters at a small rally in the back patio of Lola’s Mexican Cuisine. It was one of many stops she’s making around California as she campaigns for the U.S. Senate seat that was recently held by the late Dianne Feinstein.

“If one of Katie’s male opponents wins in November, that will be the first time in more than 30 years that California does not have a woman representing us in the Senate,” Democratic Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Irvine) said as she introduced Porter.

Boos rang out from the crowd.

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This was a scene my colleague Benjamin Oreskes witnessed on the campaign trail in the final weeks before the March 5 primary. It points to an unanticipated undercurrent of California’s Senate race.

Though California made history in 1993 as the first state to elect two women to the Senate, the state’s streak of female representation may come to an end after this year’s election — and, Oreskes reports, women appear to be a leading reason.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), one of the most powerful women in California and national politics, has endorsed Porter’s male opponent, Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank). So has former Sen. Barbara Boxer, who served alongside Feinstein for nearly a quarter century after they were elected in the first “Year of the Woman.” More than half the women in California’s congressional delegation also back Schiff. And recent opinion polls show Schiff leading the field among female likely voters.

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

Schiff, Garvey Surge Ahead In Latest 2024 California U.S. Senate Election Poll

Porter six points behind Garvey in third place, Lee remains a distant fourth

A new Inside California Politics/ Emerson College poll on the 2024 California U.S. Senate Election was released Tuesday, showing that both Congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) and former Major League baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have continued to grow their respective leads over other top candidates such as Congresswomen Katie Porter (D-CA) and Barbara Lee (D-CA).

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According to the poll, Schiff has stayed in first place with 28% of those polled giving him their support. Garvey remained in second, receiving 22%, followed by Porter who was six points down at 16%. In a distant fourth was Lee with only 9% of the vote. Lawyer Eric Early (R), Businessman James Bradley (R), and TV Anchorwoman Christina Pascucci (D) each had 2% of the vote, rounding out the candidates who had more than 1%. Meanwhile, only 17% of voters remained undecided.

When broken down by demographics, both Schiff and Garvey enjoyed a high percentage of older voters in their favor, while Porter garnered more support from younger voters. Amongst independent voters in California, both Garvey and Schiff were split, with Garvey garnered 23% support from independents while Schiff had 22%.

“Candidate support varies by age group,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Schiff’s support is highest among voters in their 60s, at 45%, and those over 70, with 39%, whereas Porter’s strength is among young voters, where she holds 23%. Notably, this group has the highest share of undecided voters at 28%. Garvey’s strength is also with older voters, with 33% support among voters over 70.”

When compared to the two previous polls in January, the previous Emerson poll and the USC Dornsife poll, Schiff has seen a trend of growing support. The January Emerson poll showed him at 25%, with the USC poll at 26%, and the February Emerson poll at 28%, marking a three point climb in only a month. Garvey, meanwhile went from an 18% January Emerson showing, to a 15% USC figure, then back up to a 22% with Emerson this month.

In Comparison, Porter had a 13%-15%-16% string of small gains, matching Schiff’s overall 3 point gain in a month, but coming short of Garvey’s 4 point gain. Lee meanwhile, made small gains, going from 8% to 7% to 9% on Tuesday. Bradley, Early, and Pascucci, meanwhile, all stagnated at around 2%.

Schiff, Garvey speed ahead of Porter, Lee

“This poll spells good news for Schiff, great news for Garvey, and just the worst possible news for Porter,” added Stephanie Lewis, a pollster in Southern California, to the Globe on Tuesday. “Schiff’s ads, first debate performance, and generally not rocking the boat in terms of negative headlines during the campaign have led him to maintain and slowly build. He’s getting many older Democrats to go away from Lee and Porter, and has pushed those on the fence to decide between him and Garvey. There’s people saying that some of his ads are charged and is trying to remove Porter because he would rather face Garvey in November, but he’s just been going after the independents and undecideds and wants to consolidate Democrats now.”

“If you’re a Garvey supporter, then this poll is great news. A six point lead over Porter with only 17% undecided, with Garvey grabbing the most independents. Plus he has outpaced support growth over all other candidates, as he went up 4 points since last month, and Schiff and Porter only went up 3. You can also track his debate performances from the polls. As he was doing decently before the first debate, dipped after his poor performance in the first, then won many people back in the second. It is helping that the Democrats are split, but it’s also helping the Porter just cannot break through.”

“Speaking of Porter, she is somewhat keeping pace, but she needed to have done more than that by now. Porter is good for the snappy headline and getting younger voters who see Lee as too old and too left, Schiff as too centrist, and Garvey as too conservative. But younger voters tend not to vote much as older voters, especially in primaries and especially in a primary election where Biden is the only real candidate for the Dems. And she is growing frustrated. She’s putting out a ton of ads, only for Schiff and Garvey to keep outpacing her. She gave up her House seat for this and was expecting to face Schiff in November. If she loses in the primary, well, that is hard to come back from.”

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe

Porter defends ad highlighting little-known GOP rival in Senate race

Rep. Katie Porter, who accused her main Democratic rival in the Senate race of cynicism for attempting to prop up a Republican in the contest, is now doing the same.

The Irvine congresswoman, who is battling with Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey to come in second place in the March 5 primary, is running digital ads touting the conservative credentials of one of Garvey’s GOP rivals.

The Facebook ads argue that Eric Early, an attorney and perennial candidate who polls in the low single digits in the Senate contest, is the true conservative in the race.

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“Who’s the real Republican threat in the California Senate race? MAGA Republican Eric Early proudly stands with Donald Trump, while Steve Garvey refuses to tell us who he supports. Garvey claimed he might even vote for Joe Biden. Get the facts,” the Facebook post says.

Though the ad ostensibly criticizes Early, it is similar to other recent Democratic efforts to boost a Republican’s standing in an election, a byproduct of the state’s open primary system. The top two vote-getters in March move on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. While Democrats dominate California voter rolls, if Republicans consolidate behind one candidate in a crowded field, he or she could win one of those two spots.

If Porter’s ad increases support for Early among GOP voters, that would eat into Garvey’s support, possibly allowing Porter to win the second spot.

Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank) appears assured to win the top spot in the primary based on polling. His campaign as well as a super PAC backing his bid are spending millions of dollars running television ads highlighting Garvey.

“Two leading candidates for Senate. Two very different visions for California,” a narrator intones in a Schiff campaign ad, noting later that Garvey “is too conservative for California” and voted for former President Trump twice.

At the time, Porter denounced the effort as a political ploy.

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

Susan Shelley: The seen and the unseen of California’s Senate debate

If there was a Museum of Horrifying Political Mistakes, California’s top-two primary would have its own wing. Possibly its own building.

 (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

The top-two primary was created by an initiative, Proposition 14, approved by voters in 2010. The idea was to eliminate political party primaries, have all the candidates on the same primary ballot, allow voters to choose any candidate from any party regardless of their own party registration, and send the top two vote-getters to the November ballot.

So that’s what we’ve got, except for presidential races, which are still party primaries.

The oddities of the top-two primary were on display in last Monday’s debate between four of the 29 candidates who are seeking the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Three of the candidates who stepped onto the debate stage at USC are Democratic members of Congress, all of them abandoning their House seats to run for a six-year term in the Senate. At the end of this election cycle, if not sooner, at least two of them will be looking for work.

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The fourth candidate on the stage was Southern California baseball legend Steve Garvey, the 10-time All-Star first baseman who famously played for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres.

He may not be popular with Giants fans, but San Francisco would never vote for a Republican anyway.

Yes, Garvey says he’s a Republican, though he seems a little unsure about it. When debate moderator Elex Michaelson asked him, “Is there anything that you disagree with your party on in the Senate?” Garvey answered, “Just about everything.”

“Just about everything?” Michaelson asked.

“No,” Garvey said.

Artfully done. That answer deserves its own display case in the top-two primary wing of the museum.

You see, there are not nearly enough registered Republican voters in the state of California to elect a Republican to a statewide office. Therefore, a Republican candidate has to win some support from non-Republican voters. Garvey rushed to distance himself from the Republican party and then backed off quickly as if he was only joking, before Republican voters had time to be insulted. Speed is everything.

Now let’s move on to the next exhibit. In this display case, we see the three Democratic candidates for Senate sniping at each other like jealous middle-school students while being careful not to lay a glove on Garvey. He’s barely grazed by a few gentle zingers, nothing like the knockout punch to the face that professional fighters in this weight class can deliver.

What’s that about?

That’s about Steve Garvey’s endorsement.

Even though there are not enough registered Republican voters in California to elect a candidate to statewide office, there’s a pretty reliable 35% who would vote for a pickled herring if it had an R next to its name. A majority of California voters would vote for a pickled herring with a D next to its name, but what happens if they have to choose between two Democrats who finish first and second in the primary? The endorsement of the third- and fourth-place finishers might determine which fish becomes the next U.S. senator from California.

“You were a hell of a ballplayer,” front-running Democrat Adam Schiff told Garvey during the debate, the first truthful thing he has said in eight years. We may need another display case.

If not for the museum-quality, horrifying political mistake of the top-two primary, we would still have party primaries for Senate, Congress, state Senate and Assembly. Democrats would run against Democrats and Republicans would run against Republicans. One candidate would emerge from each party primary and move on to November along with any candidates nominated by other political parties.

Instead, we have a nauseating level of Machiavellian intrigue. A candidate, or allies of the candidate, can buy advertising to promote the candidacy of a very weak rival in the hope of knocking a stronger one out of the top two. Then as soon as the primary is over, the advertising stops. Voters who fell for it are left wondering why their sinking candidate isn’t running any TV ads during the general election campaign.

The next exhibit in the museum shows media polls during their transformation into self-fulfilling prophecies. Please stand back, stay behind the ropes. If you’re within the margin of error, no one knows what might happen.

With 29 candidates in the U.S. Senate race, it’s obviously necessary for editors, reporters and debate organizers to make decisions about which candidates will get coverage, air time and invitations. Then publicity drives up poll numbers.

“The following candidates have received the most media attention,” wrote Ballotpedia’s election analysts, citing CalMatters and the Los Angeles Times, “Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey.”  Those are the four that were invited to Monday’s debate, after a poll.

Missing the cut and not happy about it were Republican Eric Early and self-described “Independent Democrat” Christina Pascucci.

“If I were on the debate stage, I would not have stood by as Schiff lied about Russian collusion and how packing the Supreme Court will protect democracy, as Katie Porter blathered the same canards about not being controlled by big money, as Barbara Lee bragged about policies which have turned her home of Oakland into a war zone, and as the Joe Biden Republican Steve Garvey, well, Steve Garvey will let you know,” Early wrote in an op-ed published in these pages.

He’s right.

“That was so frustrating to watch,” Pascucci said in a statement, “You have the three Democratic establishment candidates who are pointing the finger at Washington — they ARE Washington.”

She’s right, too.

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register

California’s marquee Senate race could be bad news for down ballot Dems

Strategists with some Democratic House campaigns in California said the state’s Senate race has sucked up all the oxygen and made it more difficult to fundraise.

POLITICO illustration/Photos by AP, Getty Images, iStock

California’s Rep. Adam Schiff’s $35 million war chest for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat is more than twice as large as any other Senate candidate in the nation.

The state plays no role in which party will lead the Senate next year. And yet, some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats.

Money like that could help flip multiple House seats and power Democrats’ attempt to regain control of Congress. California alone has seven GOP House incumbents that Democrats have targeted The campaign accounts of Schiff and his closest Democratic opponent, fellow Rep. Katie Porter, could transform those contests.

Instead, Schiff and Porter are engaged in an expensive, bruising primary. The tens of millions they’ve raised have largely been spent against each other, not Republicans.

“You have really some high-power people running for this seat and an enormous amount of resources going toward them that could go toward other Democrats. And that’s unfortunate,” said Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif.), who has endorsed Schiff.

Elsewhere, Senate Democratic incumbents in states like Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania need every dollar they can get to fend off well-resourced Republican challengers. (Though Schiff himself has helped Senate and House campaigns raise money with his prodigious email list.)

The agony of having two of the best fundraisers in the House battle each other has left some in the party hoping that a Republican nabs the second spot in the top-two primary on March 5. Polling has shown Schiff in a commanding lead with Porter and Republican Steve Garvey battling for second. Another prominent House Democrat, Rep. Barbara Lee, trails behind in fourth place. A second-place Garvey win would effectively end the fight for the seat in the deep-blue state instead of letting it drag out until November.

“You won’t hear that giant vacuuming sound with all the money going into that race,” Vargas said of that scenario. “Instead the money will go to other candidates, Democratic candidates.”

California elections are pricey, and the Senate race is sucking up tons of dough

Porter and Schiff are both masterful fundraisers, which makes the internecine battle harder for some Democrats to stomach.

Schiff built a loyal cable news following during the Trump administration by leading the House’s prosecution of the then-president in his first impeachment trial. He endeared himself to millions of MSNBC viewers, who rewarded him with donations. His cash pile is so large that he has invested it and put the interest into his political accounts. His campaign announced raising $6.3 million in the final quarter of 2023, a sum that included $372,000 in interest payments.

Porter has raised at least $3 million in each of the past seven quarters. Her viral committee hearing moments and cable news hits helped her amass a small-dollar fundraising army. She has not yet announced her fourth-quarter numbers — she has until the end of the month — but had $11.9 million in her account at the end of last September, the most recent data available.

Lee ended last September with $1.3 million in the bank.

“You’ve got to get to public financing of campaigns,” said Lee, who has long denounced the system as rigged. If not, “there’s never gonna be a level playing field for anyone.”

California’s expansive geography and big population makes running a statewide campaign very costly. Candidates often need millions to air just one ad introducing themselves to the 22 million registered voters. The Los Angeles media market is the nation’s second most expensive.

So far Schiff has spent more than $15.9 million on TV and digital ads in the Senate race, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm. A super PAC supporting Lee has dropped over $1 million. Porter has spent just over $3 million.

“Schiff spent decades stockpiling corporate PACs’ checks from Big Oil, payday lenders and pharmaceutical companies for this Senate campaign. Katie, on the other hand, spent more than $20 million over three election cycles winning and then defending a frontline House seat,” said Nathan Click, an advisor to Porter.

Schiff has raised or contributed more than $200,000 for Porter since she first ran for Congress in 2018, according to data provided by his campaign.

And there are still some six weeks to go until March 5.

California could help tip control of the House

It’s unclear how much of Schiff’s $35 million he will use before the primary. Democratic colleagues hope he’ll have a lot of extra cash he could deploy toward other races if a Republican advances to the general with him.

“He should turn into Santa Claus and help as many Democratic candidates as possible to help us get the seats we need in California to take the House,” said Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.).

The state will be crucial to Democrats’ hopes of winning back the House, where Republicans have a miniscule majority. National Democrats are targeting GOP Reps. Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel, Young Kim, Kevin Kiley, Ken Calvert, David Valadao and John Duarte.

Schiff is known as a team player in Democratic fundraising circles — even as a Senate candidate. He has raised more than $400,000 for Democratic candidates and organizations since he launched his campaign on January 26, 2023, according to figures tallied by his campaign. That includes $125,000 for Eugene Vindman, who is running for an open House seat in Virginia and sums for embattled Senate Democrats such as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). He has also raised for California Democratic congressional candidates, including George Whitesides and Rudy Salas, who are running against Garcia and Valadao, respectively.

But some down-ballot Democrats are struggling to keep pace with GOP incumbents’ large cash advantages. And Porter’s decision not to run for reelection leaves open a swing district that she won narrowly in 2022. They also have to defend possibly competitive turf in greater San Diego and the Central Valley.

A few Democratic candidates have posted massive fundraising totals. In the Inland Empire, Calvert was outraised in the third-quarter of last year by opponent Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor. And north of Los Angeles, Garcia ended September with less cash-on-hand than his opponent.

But most Democrats have fallen behind. And strategists with some Democratic campaigns, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the Senate race has sucked up all the oxygen and made it more difficult to fundraise.

One person working for a Democrat in a swing seat said multiple donors have declined to host fundraisers for that campaign because they had already recently held events for Schiff’s bid. Such fundraisers can bring in tens of thousands of dollars in one night.

“Every dollar matters, and the fact that so much of it is being spent on an intra-party fight is disappointing,” said the operative, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about the dynamic. “It’s frustrating when so many of the donors are sidelined or distracted.”

Some Democrats are starting to root for a Republican win in the primary

For Democrats eager to win back the House and keep the Senate, it’s tough to see so much money flowing into a race that won’t affect the balance of power in Congress.

“It’s the most inconsequential US Senate race in America,” said Michael Trujillo, a longtime California Democratic strategist.

The focus on the Senate race has become so intense that some down-ballot campaigns and Schiff endorsers have actually begun pulling for a Republican.

California’s “jungle primary” system means all candidates compete in a primary together, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the November election, regardless of party. Polls show Schiff in first place. But it’s the number two spot that’s up for grabs: If Porter or Lee win, two Democrats will continue to duke it out, expensively, until November.

But if Garvey, the former Los Angeles Dodgers baseball star and Republican candidate, advances, the race would essentially be over. California is so blue statewide that Schiff would be all-but-certain to end up in the Senate. The focus — and millions — could shift elsewhere.

Another potential upside of a Schiff-Garvey matchup is lower TV prices for the down-ballot candidates. An intense Democratic primary stretching to November would drive up ad rates for everyone — which could hurt Democratic challengers more because they are currently less well-funded than GOP incumbents.

A heated Senate race could ratchet up prices in the Central Valley, for example, a more affordable market than the Los Angeles suburbs where Democrats are eyeing two GOP incumbents.

Click here to read the full article in Politico

Steve Garvey isn’t swinging at much in California Senate race

For a guy who had 2,599 hits in his two-decade baseball career, Steve Garvey — as a Republican U.S. Senate candidate — is not going to take a lot of swings. 

Lea Suzuki/The Chronicle

Not at his opponents. Not at detailed policy proposals. And not even at a second term. The 75-year-old Palm Springs resident told me Thursday that he will serve one six-year term if elected. And, no, he’s not concerned that power in the Senate is all about seniority. He’s banking on his personal brand of celebrity to be able reach consensus with others.

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“If I can’t do what I can do personally in six years, then I’ll pass the baton to somebody else,” Garvey said. “This could be the legacy of my life, the ability to represent the people of the state that I love so much.”

So don’t expect many specifics when Garvey and the three leading Democrats, Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff square off at 6 p.m. Monday in Los Angeles for a statewide televised debate. 

Instead, as Garvey said during a campaign stop in Pleasanton, his goal is to “show humanity.” 

“I’m at the beginning of the journey,” Garvey said. “I’ll have more answers for you in June and more answers for you in August.”

But people are going to start voting next month for the March 5 primary. 

“Well, you’ll see what happens in March,” Garvey said. 

What the polls are increasingly showing is that Garvey, who has never sought elective office, could have a shot at being one of the top two finalists to advance to the November top-two general election. He is pulling 18% of the vote, according to an Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey out Thursday, trailing only Schiff with 25%. Porter has 13% and Lee 8% in that poll. A Berkeley IGS survey released this month showed Garvey in third place with 13%, trailing Porter with 17% and Schiff with 21%.

If he can consolidate the 24% of registered California Republicans behind him, Garvey has a decent shot of making the cut as Democrats split their votes.

So look for Lee and Porter to come out swinging Monday. Garvey promises he won’t return fire. Nor would he explain why he is a better candidate than fellow Republican Eric Early, a Los Angeles attorney.

Garvey is all about playing the happy warrior, much like his old friend, Ronald Reagan — whom he introduced at a San Diego campaign rally in 1984.

A happy warrior without a 10-point plan. Or even a three-point plan in some cases. What he’s about, as he stressed several times in our chat, is that he’s open and willing to talk and listen to anyone. Even if he doesn’t have a lot to offer in return beyond surface-level ideas. 

“Maybe what I’ll be able to establish right from the beginning (of the debate) is civility. I think the people of California are so inundated with the snarkiness among politicians, that I think that maybe I might be refreshing in that I am who I am,” Garvey said. “It’s important for me to have to be able to look into the camera, and tell Californians what I believe.”

Garvey, like many first-time politicians who run because they’re frustrated with the system, is an expert in explaining in anecdotal terms what he believes is wrong.

But as for specifics about what he’d do differently? Not so much.

Take housing affordability, a top problem for many Californians. What would Sen. Garvey think the federal government’s role should be in helping more people buy a home? .

“Now there’s such a rush to make decisions, a rush to throw money at whatever it may be,” he said. “I think sometimes we’ve got to step back and we have to look at the broader picture of where society is now. And then to be able to determine, is probably a federal, state and local influence on housing.” 

Right now that broader picture is that 16% of Californians could afford to buy the $830,620 median priced home last year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

So back to the federal government’s role. 

“I think it starts with the economy, affordability and free-market capitalism. I always say, reach for the moon and if you fall short, you’ll be a star. But you’re probably going to gain the ability to improve the quality of your life,” he said. 

So, then, no role for the federal government? 

“Not the primary role,” he said. That is best left to “the state and local decision-making process, the ability to open up areas to develop in. It gets back to deregulation and opening up areas caught up in red tape.”

Garvey was more definitive, in a way, on immigration policy. His solution: close the southern border and “take a step back.” As in close it without any incoming immigration. Then figure out how to get back to a manageable level.

As for the 11 million undocumented people who are living in the U.S., Garvey wants to “reprocess” them, sift out criminals, and then put them on the “process” — a word he used instead of “pathway”— to citizenship. He thought former President Donald Trump’s proposal to mass-deport undocumented citizens to be “too costly” and impractical. Again, not a lot of details about what he’d do.

As for Trump, Garvey isn’t going near that minefield for a candidate running a state where Trump is loathed by two-thirds of voters. Asked twice by reporters Thursday about whether he’d accept an endorsement from Trump, Garvey declined to answer.

“I’m more concerned about the single most difficult race in America right now for a conservative moderate like myself,” Garvey said. “I don’t have time to worry about it.”

So what’s a “conservative moderate”? Think former California Gov. Pete Wilson. 

“He and I are very, very, very similar,” Garvey told me. 

That analogy will endear Garvey to some Republicans and give others agita. Wilson campaigned for reelection in 1994 on the back of Proposition 187, an anti-immigrant ballot measure that sought to deny health care and education to undocumented immigrants.  While 60% of Californians approved it, a federal court deemed it unconstitutional. The ensuing backlash from Latino voters killed the Republican Party, as they left the GOP in droves. For years afterward, Wilson’s Prop. 187 commercial — with its ominous signature line, “They keep coming” — was played to jeers at Latino get-out-the-vote rallies.

On climate change, Garvey veers more to the right. He believes it’s real. He objects to the “rush to judgment” to address the problem. Like California’s plan to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars starting in 2035. Or as Garvey mischaracterized it, “when you tell people that in 10 years you all have to drive electric vehicles.”

Reality check: The sale of what regulators called the “cleanest-possible plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles” — meaning cars that still run in part on gas — would still be permitted after 2035. Older gasoline-powered cars would still be allowed on the road after 2035, and people could sell them on the used-car market.

“What are they going to do to you if you still have a gas vehicle then?” Garvey said. “They’re going to tax you to death for it.” 

We made it through nearly our entire chat without Garvey making a hacky baseball analogy, as he has throughout his campaign — and as I did at the start of this column. (“He told me to keep it down” around me, Garvey said, pointing to his media spokesman.)

But he saved one for the end. It goes, inadvertently, to how Democrats shouldn’t sleep on Garvey. 

Click here to read the full article in the SF Chronicle