California says gas prices could spike 50 cents a gallon next year thanks to this climate program

A nearly two decades-old program to slash climate-warming emissions from transportation could cause California gasoline prices to spike as much as 50 cents a gallon in the next two years.

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That’s according to staff of the state’s leading air quality regulator, who provided the estimate ahead of that agency’s decision to strengthen the program created to discourage gasoline and diesel production in favor of cleaner alternatives.

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Their drastic projection comes amid growing concerns about fuel and energy costs related to California efforts to phase out fossil fuels. Already burdened drivers can expect to see gas prices hit $5 a gallon this spring, and electricity bills also are expected to rise.

“I was shocked to see it,” said Danny Cullenward, a climate economist and advisor to the state. “A 50-cent increase in the price of fuel is not a small thing.”

California Air Resources Board staff projected the price jump in a key report last fall, saying proposed reforms to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) would raise costs for the gasoline and diesel production companies that could get passed on to drivers.

In what they called an upper bound estimate, air board staff estimated that gasoline prices may jump by an average of $0.47 next year and $0.52 by 2026. They said diesel prices could increase by $0.59 this year and $0.66 in two years.

Over the long term, they found that gasoline prices could increase by $1.15 per gallon and diesel by $1.50 per gallon from 2031 to 2046. They also projected a $1.21 jump in jet fuel prices.

Air board staff have since downplayed their gas price hike projections, calling them “narrow and incomplete” in a December report. Instead, the agency has focused on cost savings to drivers across the economy as more people make the switch to EVs.

“CARB staff estimates the amount of money Californians spend on transportation costs across all vehicle classes could be up to 42% lower in 2045,” air board staff said this week in FAQs about the standard’s impact on fuel costs.

The LCFS was created in 2007 by then Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels and encourage low-carbon alternatives. The first program of its kind, it has since been adopted by other governments, including the European Union.

It operates a system of monetary rewards and fees called “credits” and “deficits.” Producers of less carbon intensive fuel — such as biofuel, ethanol and biomethane — sell those credits to gasoline and diesel producers who rack up deficits.

Click here to read the full article in Sacramento Bee via Yahoo News


  1. Leo of Sacramento says

    Again, one of many things I plan to either fix, alter or remove.
    Leo Naranjo IV for California State aGovernor 2026.

    • well if you don’t know which to do by now, why would anyone vote for you. you sound like another dime-a-dozen democrat!!

      • Leo of Sacramento says


        Everett, is it?

        Back on 19 FEB 2024, you wrote in a piece on here, the following:
        “These communist fascist racist satanic woke slave-owning democrats will do anything to allow them to continue they’re voting FRAUD practices”

        Let me clarify for you, what I meant by my post above:
        1) Fix……Director of this CARP group, will need to make the needed changes, unless he/she is unable, then they can be removed.
        2) Alter…….The Director of this group, will be able to present WHY it’s needed, justify the expense and modify the directives as currently written.
        3) Remove……if the above TWO ways fail to achieve the desired results, then an Executive Order will be issued to resolve the problem.

        As to your reply to the post? I reread some of your postings and have come to a conclusion:
        This isn’t a Dictatorship. Executive Orders will be in line with the use our current GOV has used.
        I will work with the Legislature to fix/alter/change/correct/remove/end failed policies and laws. Failing that, we’ll make the order to do just that. If it’s STILL a hot issue, then we’ll put it in front of the Voters to ultimately decide the issue.

        I am far, from another, as you put it, ‘dime-a-dozen-democrat’. So, in the name of ‘civility’ I’ll defer what my original thought was for your comment.

        As to your, ummmm, “slave owning, satanic communist Demos’ comment?…..hmmmm.
        If you sound like a loon….well, enough said.

        As for you voting or not, for me in 2026? Here’s the deal: You either do, or don’t. It’s that simple.
        If you LIKE high prices, high crimes, high taxation, high costs of living, NO choices, war on parents and communities, too many homeless,…then you’ll vote as you have been.
        If you’re tired of those things, then I hope you’ll vote for me in 2026.

        That is: If you’re even legally eligible TOO vote in California.

  2. My question is why does it always cost US ( the people) money to fix a fake problem?? Why are those who say it’s a problem always the ones who fly private, Have motorcades of several gas-guzzling SUV’s and live in Housing that 10 families can live in? Oh and are always near a large body of water that is supposed to rise. I call Bullshit!! The ones who push this crap, have never accomplished anything in their lives. Most have never worked a REAL JOB.

  3. Bill Waters says

    Bill Waters,
    Enough! Ordinary people are already struggling with day-to-day bread and butter expenses. We don’t need any more grief..

  4. Michael J Nelson says

    Vote Democrat if you want the same old screwing……………….

  5. All we have to do is TO VOTE THESE CORRUPT CLOWNS OUT

  6. California efforts to phase out fossil fuels has NOT addressed the fuel needs of the States’ 9 International airport, 41 Military airports, and 3 of the largest shipping ports in America !

    Without fuels and the more than 6,000 products that are made from oil, to support the 8 billion on this planet, are we expected to close airports, hospitals, and divert merchant ships away from California?

    • Oh PLEASE we all know that the Electric C-17e will make it from Travis AFB to the coast with no problem…the WEST Coast that is. Beyond that, not so much. Newsom should have to walk the walk of his talk, zero hydrocarbons for him. Not one friggin’ fossil was/is ever involved with hydrocarbons. I wish that people would stop using that term.

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