Will Trump Win All of California’s Delegates in the Primary? Here’s What Polling Suggests

The former president, along with several other GOP contenders, will head to Southern California later this month

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California Republicans’ support for former President Donald Trump appears to be growing, according to a new poll — and that’s a particularly positive sign for his campaign given how the state will assign its bevy of delegates this year.

Trump is the preferred candidate for 55% of likely Republican voters surveyed in late August by the Berkeley Institute of Government Studies — taken after he was indicted in Georgia for alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

That’s an 11% increase from Berkeley IGS’s May survey — and would trigger the California Republican Party’s new rule allotting all of its 169 delegates to whichever candidate can secure a majority (50% plus 1) of the statewide vote in the upcoming primary election.

In comparison, 16% of likely Republican voters picked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 7% former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and 4% tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

A February Berekely IGS poll found 37% of registered Republican voters preferred DeSantis while 29% preferred Trump.

“Even with all of his legal troubles, former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary looks more like what one expects to see from an incumbent running for reelection than for a candidate in an open seat,” said IGS co-director Eric Schickler. “While it remains early, it has to frustrate Trump’s opponents that his lead has grown even amid his series of indictments.”

Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley, says the poll shows good news for Trump — as long as he can maintain that support among California’s GOP voters during the March 5 primary.

“The state party clearly did this to help him, but now Iowa and New Hampshire are even more important,” said Schnur, noting the momentum from winning those early primary states coupled with California’s delegates would make Trump “unstoppable.”

CAGOP changed its rules in late July. If no contender can secure a majority, then the delegates — the most from any state — will be distributed proportionally.  Previously, candidates could win three delegates per congressional district, which could lead them to focus on certain pockets of the state.

The change, CAGOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson said at the time, encourages Republican candidates “to spend real time campaigning in our state and making their case to voters.”

Still, the change was largely seen as a boon to Trump’s quest to return to the White House.

Meanwhile, the Berkeley IGS poll also found President Joe Biden holding a substantial lead over challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson among both likely Democratic and no party preference voters.

And while Biden holds a 51% to 31% lead over Trump, the survey found 24% of registered voters are “very open” to a potential third party candidate in a Biden-Trump matchup, 23% are “somewhat open” and 17% said it would depend on who the candidate is.

Trump, along with many other presidential contenders, plans to head to Southern California later this month.

The Republican National Committee is holding the second GOP presidential primary debate on Sept. 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute in Simi Valley — albeit, it’s not clear if Trump will participate. He skipped the first debate and criticized the presidential library as the venue because the longtime board chair, Frederick Ryan Jr., was the publisher of the Washington Post. (In June, Ryan said he was leaving the Washington Post to lead the new Center on Public Civility at the Reagan Foundation.)

On Sept. 29, Trump and other candidates are slated to speak at the CAGOP fall convention in Anaheim. DeSantis and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are also scheduled to appear that Friday; Ramaswamy is expected the next day.

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register


  1. I would really be surprised if the communist fascist racist satanic democrat morons in Kommiefornia suddenly woke up and relized this country was MUCH better off when President Trump was doing ALL he promised, and most of it was in his first 100 days in office!!! I voted for him because he’s a businessman and NOT a politician, he’s a billionaire so he can’t be bought off like Clinton, Bush, Soetoro, and Biden, and he’s a Christian and knows how to follow GOD. Commie dems only worship Baal., while they’re killing millions of innocent babies, burning our country down, and sucking all our money into their private bank accounts!!

    • Exactly, and very well stated!

      • Treva Bennett says

        Amen! What tops it all off Soros admitted Trump will destroy the globalists plots to take us over. No one but Trump is able. He’s already proved his worth even with the horrendous persecution he has suffered for us, Trump has more than earned our vote. Plain and simply: our country needs him if we are to remain the USA 🇺🇸. Even the Democrats are registering Republican. They can smell the corruption as well as we can.

    • Too many voters are heavily brainwashed with no hope of recovery.

  2. This shows the Ca Repubs are growing more tolerant of habitual criminality among their candidates and accepting of an unconstitutional, tin-horn dictatorship. And that is a positive thing, especially for candidate Trump, if he hasn’t been jailed and removed from the ballot by election day. Wonderful, just wonderful.

    • Robin Itzler - Patriot Neighbors says

      I wonder why you regularly want to show how out of touch you are with what is happening. You must be best buds with Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

  3. Only Trump can drain the California swamp!! God speed!

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