The events we have been witnessing in Ukraine are critical not only for their impact on the people of eastern Europe – the precedents set during the coming weeks and months will have significant influence on the future balance of power across the globe. While much of the Western world sat idle during the recent annexation of Crimea by neighboring Russia, in the broader context of foreign policy, the West’s response (or lack thereof) will be scrutinized as significantly as Putin’s next step. One key actor paying close attention is undoubtedly China.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and as Condoleezza Rice recently reflected, when the world recognizes that America fails to fill a void of influence in the realm of international affairs, other players emerge to close the gap. Foreign leaders are carefully studying the actions of Russia, and perhaps even more importantly, the accompanying reaction from the West, in part to ascertain the United States’ level of commitment to its allies in geostrategic regions throughout the world. China maintains a watchful eye on the situation as it has unique territorial disputes of its own, from conflict with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, to its claims over various islands in the South China Sea, to its complicated relationship with Taiwan and Tibet.
Though China is unlikely to engage in a pseudo-military annexation of Taiwan similar to that which just occurred by Russia in Crimea, there is little doubt that Beijing is carefully scrutinizing the actions of Russia and the West. The last decade has witnessed the rise of China as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony, particularly in Asia. China and Russia have a historically unique relationship and share an immense border. China, with its incredibly massive population, is increasingly urbanizing, putting a strain on its dwindling national resources. Russia, with its aging and shrinking population, is resource heavy, and it supplies much of Western Europe with its energy supplies. China’s political structure over the past half century adopted many Marxist-Leninist-Stalinist tendencies, but Moscow and Beijing are often aligned politically largely insofar as their cumulative output effectively counterbalances U.S. influence in the region. In short, the relationship between China and Russia is closely intertwined but complicated. They both, however, grow impatient over continued American involvement in their backyard.
Unlike during the Cold War, in which the Soviet Union and the United States were the two perennial powerhouses, China’s emergence now means there is a trifecta of actors at play, which presents a new host of quandaries. For this reason is it paramount to recognize that the West’s response to the situation in the Ukraine is undoubtedly receiving close scrutiny in Beijing and could have implications down the road as China continues its ascendance.
The annexation of Crimea generated little more than verbal condemnation by Western powers, followed by a spattering of largely symbolic sanctions that did nothing to quell Putin’s advance. With the build up of Russian troops on the eastern border of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s has recently hinted that he seeks only to protect ethnic Russians from a government in the Ukraine that is increasingly hostile to them. His next move is anyone’s guess, but one thing is clear: the West’s tepid response to the Crimean annexation has done little to discourage the Russian premier.
While it may appear that Ukraine will not have an immediate impact on the American economy or reputation, the same cannot be said for the myriad of potential Chinese conflicts down the road. China holds a substantial amount of American debt, fields the largest military in the world, and has shown no hesitation in using violence as a means of maintaining totalitarian control.
President Obama’s foreign policy actions of late have demonstrated a commitment to condemn, but not to act beyond that. The world is watching the lack of reaction. In Moscow and Beijing, inaction can speak even louder than words.
(Ben Everard is a contributor to California Political Review. Originally published on California Political Review.)
Speak Your Mind