FAIR Plan rate hike adds to California homeowners’ insurance strain

A 29.1% FAIR Plan increase and an unresolved wildfire dispute are squeezing California’s already-limited market

California’s homeowners insurance market is absorbing a new wave of rate increases. The pressure arrives as lawmakers weigh changes to how wildfire costs are allocated between utilities, insurers, and policyholders.

The California FAIR Plan’s 29.1% rate increase takes effect October 15, per the California Department of Insurance. The plan initially sought 35.8%. State Farm‘s 17% emergency rate increase, approved by regulators in May 2025, was confirmed in a March settlement.

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The admitted carrier market remains restricted. State Farm and Allstate are still closed to new business. Mercury, Farmers, and AAA/CSAA are among the carriers writing new policies statewide.

FAIR Plan enrollment grew 43% between September 2024 and December 2025, according to FAIR Plan data. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires drove much of that increase. Total FAIR Plan exposure reached $750 billion by March, a 242% increase since September 2022 based on data gathered by Amwins.

In the highest-risk ZIP codes, approximately 41% of residential structures now carry a FAIR Plan policy, compared to 4% in lower-risk areas.

End-of-session liability dispute

At the center of the legislative debate is a question of who bears the cost of utility-caused wildfires. California’s inverse condemnation doctrine holds utilities responsible for wildfire damage caused by their equipment, regardless of negligence. Subrogation gives insurers the right to recover paid wildfire claims from those utilities.

Senate Bill 254 (Becker, 2025), signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, required a study of wildfire liability options. The study, produced by the California Wildfire Fund administrator, examined approaches including eliminating inverse condemnation.

Utilities have argued the current framework exposes the state’s $40 billion Wildfire Fund to depletion. Insurers counter that eliminating subrogation would remove their right to recover wildfire costs and shift those losses to policyholders.

 

California regulators approve new rules limiting what replacement tires you can buy for your car

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California regulators on Monday approved new rules that will restrict what tires you can buy when it’s time to replace them on your car.

In a unanimous vote, the California Energy Commission voted to adopt new rules that will phase out the sale of replacement tires that don’t meet certain energy efficiency standards.

“This ultimately is about protecting consumers,” said David Hochschild, the chairman of the California Energy Commission. “I see this as sheltering the public from higher costs in the long run.”

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Tire manufacturers and the commission’s staff are at odds over whether this will add to the cost of living in the state. Both sides acknowledged this will no longer allow the sale of a significant portion of the tires currently sold in California.

At the center of this is a tire’s rolling resistance, or how much energy a tire uses as it rolls down the road. Lower resistance means a vehicle uses less gas or electricity. New cars come with generally efficient tires, but consumers typically replace those with higher rolling resistance tires.

The first phase would begin in 2029, which would allow the sale of tires with a maximum rolling resistance level of 9.1 newtons per kilonewton (N/kN). In phase 2, the standard lowers to 7.2 (N/kN) starting in 2033. The commission came up with the standards after testing 537 types of tires.

According to the commission’s staff, the rules are meant to ensure replacement tires sold in California are at least as energy efficient on average as the tires that come with the car or truck when it’s originally sold. The CEC claims Californians could save $79 in four months in gas or electricity costs under phase 1, and about $153 in phase 2 within seven months.

Click here to read the full article at KCRA

Gavin Newsom wildfire plan faces revolt over warning it will spike insurance rates across California

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s latest proposal that could help private utility companies dodge liability for wildfires sparked by their own equipment is facing heat from survivor groups.

A coalition of insurers, local governments, fire survivors, attorneys and consumer advocates urged state lawmakers to reject the plan in a fact sheet titled “Wildfire Recovery Reform: Survivors First” — warning it would drive up insurance costs statewide while capping what fire victims and insurers can claw back from utilities.

“Wildfire survivors should not be asked to subsidize utility shareholders. Families who have lost loved ones, homes, businesses, and livelihoods because of utility-caused fires deserve full compensation and a clear path toward recovery,” the coalition wrote in an Aug. 11 letter to the legislature.

Newsom’s utility bailout push comes as California’s wildfire liability fund nears depletion after being drained by Southern California Edison’s payouts to victims of last year’s Eaton Fire, which has been blamed on sparks from a decades-idle Edison transmission line.

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Utility equipment has caused seven of the world’s 20 most expensive wildfires, every one of them in California, the coalition said.

Existing liability rules put utilities on the hook for the disasters their equipment causes.

“The Legislature is now being asked to consider proposals that would instead transfer those costs to homeowners’ insurers, local governments, state taxpayers, and the very communities devastated by these disasters,” the groups added.

After refinery explosions, California lawmakers move to preserve safety rules

California lawmakers are advancing an effort to preserve oil refinery safety rules that were designed to prevent fires, explosions and other catastrophes despite industry opposition.

The union-backed proposal, Senate Bill 966, would enshrine existing worker protections into state law as California regulators move to revise them in response to a legal settlement with the state’s oil lobby.

“We’re trying to get the best regulations possible for these industries,” said Nick Plurkowski, a leader of a Bay Area local of the United Steelworkers. “An industry where you have to write into regulation … that it’s okay to refuse work that could lead to your death.”

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The bill would lock in workers’ rights to refuse dangerous work, participate in safety reviews, choose their own representatives for safety planning and report hazards anonymously.

The measure is among several targeting the oil and gas industry this year, including proposals aimed at refinery closure plans and a bid to curb high gas prices during wartime by expanding the state’s price-gouging law. Lawmakers’ focus on refineries comes as California drivers face the nation’s highest gasoline prices and the Iran war pushes up the global price of crude oil.

The worker safety bill would lock in provisions adopted after a 2012 Chevron refinery fire in Richmond that prompted 15,000 people to seek medical attention. The Western States Petroleum Association, the state’s main oil lobby, formally opposes the measure, arguing it would override a 2024 legal settlement the industry reached with regulators.

The industry and union players fighting over the bill do not contribute much money directly to lawmakers, according to CalMatters’ Digital Democracy database. Campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry can be toxic in elections for the state’s politically dominant Democratic Party.

But WSPA is a powerhouse when it comes to lobbying. It’s routinely the biggest spender in the Capitol among the many interest groups that hire lobbyists, according to state records.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Newsom-appointed judge who freed migrant before fatal stabbing said justice ‘sometimes means a dismissal’

Nichelle Holmes, appointed by Gavin Newsom in 2024, released Marcos Iriarte-Valdez on his own recognizance before the killing

The California judge who released a Venezuelan national arrested for burglary — and later allowed him to remain in pretrial home detention despite his violation of its terms — had previously said that justice can sometimes mean “dismissal” in an interview with her alma mater, the University of San Francisco School of Law.

The day after Contra Costa Superior Court Judge Nichelle Holmes dismissed Marcos Iriarte-Valdez, a Venezuelan national, he was accused of stabbing another man to death while attempting another burglary.

The killing of Todd Stewart, 68, outside his home of more than 30 years has renewed scrutiny of judges’ discretion in releasing repeat criminal offenders. It also comes as Republican leaders criticize “sanctuary” policies that they say make it difficult for federal immigration enforcement agents to do their jobs and put the public at risk.

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Holmes, who was appointed to Contra Costa Superior Court by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., in 2024, ordered on Aug. 5, 2024, that Iriarte-Valdez, a Venezuelan national who holds Spanish citizenship, be released on his own recognizance. The Department of Homeland Security called Iriarte-Valdez an “illegal alien” in a social media post, but later said he was “legally admitted” to the U.S. in 2007. DHS did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment on his immigration status.

Holmes’ ruling to allow Iriarte-Valez to walk free aligns with an interview that she gave to her alma mater, the University of San Francisco School of Law, in 2017, in which she claimed that her work as then-deputy district attorney of Contra Costa County is her way of fighting against injustices and racial disparities in the justice system.

“Coming to work every day and ensuring that justice is served is my way of protesting,” Holmes said. “Justice does not always mean a prison sentence. Sometimes it means a treatment program, or intensive counseling, and sometimes it means a dismissal.”

Holmes shared that she decided to become a district attorney as opposed to a defense attorney because she said victims need a voice too.

“Navigating through the criminal justice process can be daunting and only add to the stress and trauma of being a crime victim,” Holmes shared. “I choose to advocate for the victims and be their voice to make the process just a little easier. I choose to make my community a safer place for everyone.”

“I choose to ensure that the Constitution is upheld on all sides,” Holmes continued. “I choose to be a part of the solution.”

Click here to read the full article at FoxNews

 

Ghouls in Pink Turned the Golden State into the Abortion State

California beat Massachusetts to who is more ghoulish

Massachusetts Governor Maura Healy just signed a new Massachusetts law allowing abortions at any time. Healy, a Democrat, signed the new law Monday removing the state’s 24-week abortion limit, allowing abortions at any point in pregnancy.

Most of the mainstream media reported that the new law  is”strengthening abortion protections.”

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This photo looks like a coven of witches celebrating a human sacrifice, as they cheer on the governor signing a new law to allow aborting a baby up to the end of the pregnancy.

Predictably, it’s about Trump: “As the Trump Administration ramps up attacks on reproductive care and abortion access nationwide, Massachusetts must continue closing gaps in care so that women have full autonomy over the care they need, when and where they need it,” said Senator Robyn Kennedy (D-Worcester), Senate sponsor of the bill.

They never say how the “Trump Administration ramps up attacks on reproductive care and abortion access.” Trump merely cut Planned Parenthood’s taxpayer funding.

But California beat Massachusetts to who is more ghoulish.

The Governor who shut down California’s beaches and legendary tourist attractions, churches, bars and restaurants as a response to the COVID pandemic, effectively killing off many businesses and the tourism industry, saw it fit to promote abortion tourism, inviting tourists to visit California and get an abortion if their own state has abortion restrictions.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and the State Legislature offer taxpayer funds to help out-of-state residents obtain abortions.

Oh – they also legalized infanticide. Assembly Bill 2223 by Assemblywoman Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland), is an abortion bill from 2022 misleadingly labeled “Reproductive health,” which actually seeks/sought to legalize infanticide to expand the killing of infants past the moment of birth up to weeks after, the Globe reported.

Why do leftist women want women to kill their babies?

Gov. Newsom also authorized the creation of  The California Future of Abortion Council in September 2021 made up of ACCESS REPRODUCTIVE JUSTICE, Black Women for Wellness Action Project, Essential Access Health, NARAL Pro-Choice California, National Health Law Program, and Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California with support from the Governor, Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis, Senate President pro Tempore Toni G. Atkins (D-San Diego), Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D-Lakewood), and Attorney General Rob Bonta, Planned Parenthood wrote.

The goal of the California Future of Abortion Council is to make California an Abortion Sanctuary State: “It is imperative that California take the lead, live up to its proclamation as a ‘Reproductive Freedom State,’ and be ready to serve anyone who seeks abortion services in the state. We are releasing the following Recommendations to Protect, Strengthen, and Expand Abortion Services in California,” their new report says. “Reproductive Freedom” is newspeak for terminating a pregnancy. They anticipate abortions to increase in California from 46,000 to 1.4 million with taxpayer funded “abortion tourism.”

The California Assembly and the Senate voted in 2022 to mandate all private and public health insurance plans cover abortions with no co-pays or deductibles under SB 245, by Sen. Lena Gonzalez (D-Long Beach), the Globe reported. With at least 26 states considering a ban on abortions, or late term abortions, reports indicate that California could see a dramatic 3,000% increase of people traveling into California for abortions.

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe

Nobody In Sacramento Voted Against This Bill – It Could Still Die Anyway

866 Professional Fiduciaries stand between California’s aging population and a courtroom full of unmanaged estates

A bill just cleared the California Assembly 76-0. Zero no votes. Not one member of either party stood up to object. In a Legislature that can turn a resolution honoring National Donut Day into a floor fight, that alone is worth a paragraph.

The bill is AB 1939, authored by Assemblyman Heath Flora (R-Ripon), and it does something almost administrative in nature: it lets California’s licensed professional fiduciaries organize as professional corporations. It then passed Senate Judiciary 11-0. It passed Senate Appropriations 13-0. And then, on August 3, it landed on the suspense file, the drawer where the Legislature parks bills with a price tag attached and quietly decides, out of public view, whether they live or die. This is the third time the same idea has taken this exact path. The first two times, it died there.

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I have spent more than 30 years managing money for private clients and, for the past decade, serving as a designated expert witness in fiduciary duty litigation in California courts. I have seen what happens on the far side of a bad conservatorship, and I have seen what happens when the person responsible for an elderly client’s care and finances has no backup plan. AB 1939 is a fix for exactly that second problem, and it deserves better than a silent death in a Sacramento drawer.

Who These People Are, And Why It Matters

Professional fiduciaries are not a household term, but their clients are some of the most vulnerable people in the state. Under the Professional Fiduciaries Act, established in 2006, anyone acting as a court-appointed conservator, guardian, or trustee for two or more unrelated people must be individually licensed and background-checked through the Professional Fiduciaries Bureau. As of last year, there were 866 of them actively licensed statewide. That is the entire workforce standing between California’s aging population and a courtroom full of unmanaged estates.

Here is the gap nobody outside probate court thinks about. These licensees operate as sole proprietors, because current law gives them no other option. A fiduciary managing a dozen conservatorships is, on paper, a business of one. If that person has a stroke, gets in a car accident, or simply dies mid-case, the seniors and disabled adults depending on them do not have a firm to fall back on. They have a filing cabinet and a very confused court calendar.

What The Bill Actually Does

AB 1939 would let licensees organize under the Moscone-Knox Professional Corporation Act, the same statute that already governs law firms and CPA practices. Every director, officer, and shareholder still has to be individually licensed. The corporation still has to register with the Secretary of State and hold a certificate from the Bureau. The bill adds new disclosure and reporting requirements on top of that, and it closes a separate loophole by barring courts from appointing anyone, corporate or individual, who is not properly licensed or registered. If signed, it takes effect January 1, 2029, on a timeline the author built in specifically to blunt the fiscal objections that sank the last two attempts.

None of this is exotic. It is succession planning; the same unglamorous discipline I have spent a career telling clients not to skip.

What It Does Not Do

It is worth being straight about the limits here, because I have watched trade groups oversell bills like this before. A professional corporation does not shield a fiduciary from liability for their own misconduct. It works the way it does for lawyers and accountants: the entity protects against a partner’s malpractice and ordinary business debt, not against a fiduciary’s own breach of duty toward the client. Senate committee analysis of the prior version flagged this honestly rather than papering over it. That is the correct outcome. The point of AB 1939 is continuity of care for a conservatee when their fiduciary can no longer serve, not a liability shield for bad actors. A bill that promised the latter would deserve the skepticism. This one does not.

Click here to read the full article at the California Globe

 

Really insulting:’ Campaign to limit settlements stirs frustration among wildfire victims

ALTADENA, Calif. (KABC) — Victims of the devastating Los Angeles fires are dealing with a new headache. A controversial campaign that some utility companies are helping pay for is trying to put a cap on how much settlement money victims get.

Morgan Whirledge, who is rebuilding this Altadena home destroyed in the Eaton Fire, is angry and frustrated as flyers claiming to protect wildfire victims fill mailboxes in his area.

“To try to disguise yourself as being supportive of survivors after what we’ve been through is really insulting,” he said.

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The campaign Wildfire Victims First, which calls on lawmakers to support legislation to reduce the rising cost of wildfires, is paid for in part by Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas & Electric and San Diego Gas & Electric – the same companies accused of starting at least half a dozens of the state’s most destructive wildfires, including the Eaton Fire.

“This will create billions of dollars of more protection for the utilities that they don’t have to pay for wildfire victims in the future,” said Joy Chen, executive director of Every Fire Survivor’s Network.

The group is pushing to limit how much fire victims can receive in lawsuit settlements for pain and suffering, and calling for insurers to carry more of the cost of utility-sparked fires.

Chen, who has met with the governor’s office, says it’s all part of supporting a bail-out bill that Gov. Gavin Newsom is working on behind the scenes.

It comes as SoCal Edison’s profits following the fire jump from $1.3 billion to nearly $4.5 billion. Shareholder dividends are also increasing, along with executive pay.

Fire victims like Whirledge say it all feels like a slap in the face.

“Make us whole and stop trying to deceive us,” he said.

Click here to read the full article at ABC News

How California’s hospice industry spiraled out of control — and cost millions in fraud

The state ‘should have raised the red flag. They didn’t. They opened the door,” and fraudsters walked in, said one trade group executive

A quiet change in California law in 2018 unleashed a deluge of new hospices and spurred millions of dollars in Medicare fraud that state and federal authorities are still trying to unwind.

Hospices shared addresses with burrito stands, car repair shops and vacant lots. They piled into nondescript office buildings offering cheap rent, month-to-month leases and little scrutiny. Hundreds appeared in Van Nuys, Glendale, Burbank and North Hollywood at rates far exceeding the need in those communities.

Within a few years, Los Angeles County had more hospices than a dozen other states combined.

It all started with three paragraphs added, at the request of the California Department of Public Health, to the end of an omnibus bill in 2018. CDPH had a backlog of 72 applications for hospice licenses at the time and wanted legislators to provide an alternative to a major bottleneck: its own inspectors.

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Under SB 1495, hospices could choose to pay a third-party accrediting organization for the inspection needed for a license, instead of waiting weeks or months for the next available state employee.

Critics argue the change, combined with California’s already lax oversight, lifted a floodgate and gave control of one of the earliest means of detecting fraud — actually being on site — to organizations with a financial incentive to sign off on as many hospices as possible.

One described it as “the fox guarding the henhouse.”

‘They were overwhelmed’

Before, the state’s limited capacity kept new hospices low. CDPH received 115 applications for hospice licenses in 2018. By 2020, that jumped to 1,104, records showed.

Accrediting organizations, already performing inspections for the federal Medicare program, had the resources to move quickly. Shifting the workload also freed up funding and time for the state to focus on more serious complaint investigations.

“They were overwhelmed,” said Sheila Clark, the CEO and president of the California Hospice and Palliative Care Association, in an interview. “They saw all of these applications, all of this coming in, and they should have raised the red flag.

“They didn’t,” she said. “They opened the door.”

Unlike a restaurant, which must undergo fire, building and health inspections, the vast majority of hospices in California could suddenly obtain a license, and even approval to bill Medicare, without a public employee stepping foot on the property.

State inspectors handled only 12 licensure inspections in 2020, down from 138 in 2016, records showed.

Today, about 80% of all licensed hospices in California went through an accrediting organization. Nearly 70% used one to obtain the right to bill Medicare on the federal side as well.

It is rare for either CDPH or the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to deny a hospice recommended by an accreditor, according to interviews. Under SB 1495, CDPH must grant a license to any accredited hospice that meets the necessary conditions.

‘They created their own problem’

The largest of the three federally approved hospice accreditors, the Accreditation Commission for Health Care (ACHC), doesn’t believe AOs are to blame, however, and argues the state needs to “own responsibility for licensure issues.”

CDPH reviews the application and address before the accrediting organization goes out to perform the verification, ACHC said.

“They’ve created their own problem,” said Jose Domingos, the CEO of ACHC in an interview.

ACHC accredited nearly 1,000, or about 70%, of the hospices in Los Angeles County, including 170 in Van Nuys, from 2018 to 2025, according to the federal “Provider of Services” database. ACHC’s close relationship with consultants helped the nonprofit expand in California, while others slowed down during COVID, Domingos said.

A state audit previously found that while L.A. County experienced a 1,589% increase in hospices from 2010 to 2021, the population in need of such care went up only 40%.

Katy Barnett, director of home care and hospice operations and policy at LeadingAge, a nonprofit representing more than 5,300 providers of aging services, called the numbers “very concerning.”

“It definitely dampens people’s faith in accrediting organizations,” she said.

Still, the providers represented by LeadingAge prefer accreditation to working with state agencies as they get better support, she said.

Click here to read the full article in the OC Register

 

The Polling Paradox of 2026

How the most-polled midterm in American history became the least predictable — and why the numbers themselves are now a campaign weapon

Eighty-nine days before the midterms, the single most-watched number in American politics cannot agree with itself. CNN’s poll with SSRS puts Democrats ahead by eight points on the generic congressional ballot. Emerson College says eleven. The Washington Post-Ipsos survey says three, and Reuters/Ipsos says two. These are reputable shops fielding in the same weeks, asking essentially the same question, each carrying a margin of error near three points. A nine-point spread among them is not sampling noise. It is a disagreement about what the American electorate actually is — and somebody’s model of that electorate is wrong.

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The aggregate tells the same story in slower motion. The RealClearPolitics generic-ballot average stood at D+7.4 on June 1 and had slipped to D+4.7 by late July. Nothing happened in those seven weeks that plausibly moved three points of the national electorate. What changed was the mix of pollsters releasing surveys and the choices inside their weighting decks. When the average moves because the inputs churn rather than because voters do, the average has stopped measuring the race and started measuring the industry.

The paradox, stated plainly

Here is the paradox I have been working through in my own notes on this cycle:

  • First, public polling has shown a propensity to favor the anti-Trump respondent. The people angriest at the administration are the ones most eager to spend eighteen minutes with a survey taker, and no weighting scheme fully cures a response pool that self-selects on intensity.
  • Second, Democrats have simultaneously been cast — effectively — as left-leaning and pro-socialist, a brand liability that operates underneath the horse-race numbers.
  • Third, these two forces together have confounded midterm predictions and tainted the generic ballot as an instrument.
  • Fourth, voters may be upset with the president and the economy while remaining deeply skeptical that Democrats would be any better — or suspecting they would be worse.
  • Fifth, the practical result is a pure toss-up for control of Congress, no matter what the toplines say.

The data backs the skepticism embedded in that framework. In the same Economist/YouGov survey that shows a six-point Democratic lead, 27 percent of respondents are undecided, backing another candidate, or not planning to vote at all. Emerson finds “threats to democracy” overtaking the economy as the top voter issue — 28 percent to 27 percent — which is less a policy verdict than a portrait of an electorate voting against things rather than for them. An angry electorate that trusts neither party is precisely the electorate that polling instruments handle worst.

We have seen this movie before

Twenty years ago, in January 2006, I broke down an AP/Ipsos poll that carried the headline “Voters Seem More Ready To End GOP Control Of Congress.” The topline was dramatic: a 49–36 Democratic advantage on control of Congress. The crosstabs were the story. The sample leaned 52–40 toward Democrats in a country that had split its 2004 electorate 37–37. Nineteen percent of respondents claimed no religion, against 10 percent of actual 2004 voters. Rural voters — a 57–42 Bush constituency — were 17 percent of the sample but had been 25 percent of the electorate. Married voters were underrepresented by seven points; the under-$15,000 income bracket was overrepresented by nearly double. Every single skew ran the same direction.

The question I asked then is the question that defines 2026: was the purpose of conducting the poll to get good results, or to push an agenda? The mechanics have changed — the landline is dead, the online panel is king — but the game is identical. The difference is that in 2006 you could catch it by reading the demographic tables. Today the skew lives somewhere harder to audit: the weighting deck.

Where the skew lives now

The most honest demonstration of this came, to his credit, from a pollster. G. Elliott Morris ran his own Verasight polling data through four defensible party-weighting schemes — same interviews, same questions, same field dates. The published result was D+7.1. Re-weight to an updated three-way party-ID target and it becomes D+7.9. Weight leaned partisans into their parties and it is D+8.7. Pin a five-way party distribution to Pew’s benchmark and it reaches D+9.2. Two full points of margin — the difference between a competitive House and a wave — produced not by a single voter changing his mind, but by an analyst choosing among equally respectable assumptions.

Rasmussen’s Fran Coombs said it without embarrassment back in 2016: run the same raw numbers through a model with slightly more GOP turnout among men and older voters and Trump leads by one; run it with a few more young voters and women and Clinton leads by four. “Same numbers, slightly different formula, different results.”

Underneath the weighting problem sits the deeper one: nonresponse. The American Statistical Association’s guidance is blunt — a low response rate produces more questionable results than a small sample, because there is no scientifically valid way to infer what the nonrespondents think, and weighting adjustments “should not be considered a complete solution”. Public polls now routinely complete interviews with a low single-digit percentage of the people they attempt to reach. At that point the poll is no longer a measurement wearing a margin of error; it is a model wearing a survey’s clothes. The margin of error describes the sample. It says nothing about whether the sample was ever the electorate.

Polling as a campaign weapon

All of this would be a methods seminar if polls merely described races. They do not. They shape them — and every operative on both sides knows it. A released poll is an intervention in the race it claims to observe, and it skews elections through at least four channels.

  • Money and recruitment. A D+11 headline moves donor dollars, PAC targeting decisions, and candidate recruitment months before a single vote is cast. Early polls decide which challengers get funded and which districts get written off — which is why the incentive to publish a favorable number is strongest precisely when the number is least reliable.
  • Enthusiasm and complacency. A manufactured blowout tells one side’s marginal voters the race is over. Whether the intended effect is demoralization of the trailing side or complacency in the leading one, the target of a skewed topline is never the forecaster — it is the low-propensity voter deciding whether Tuesday is worth the trip.
  • Narrative laundering. The outlier gets the headline; the correction gets the footnote. CNN’s D+8 among registered voters becomes “Democrats surge” across a hundred downstream outlets, while the Post-Ipsos D+3 — fielded days earlier — barely dents the narrative,. By the time the averages digest both, the frame is set.
  • Expectation-setting. Polling now also functions as pre-litigation. Gallup finds 67 percent of Americans concerned that political leaders will pressure election officials to change outcomes. In that environment, a party’s polling narrative doubles as its post-election argument: a loss that contradicts months of favorable toplines becomes, to its voters, presumptive evidence of theft. The skewed poll does its most dangerous work after the election, not before it.

Click here to read the full article in the California Globe