How did California’s gerrymander work out? Better than Texas’

To win control of the U.S. House, Democrats needed to secure at least 218 seats. By Wednesday night, the party won at least 240 — picking up more than two dozen additional seats, and flipping the Senate too.

A year ago Democrats were far less confident they could pull off the blue wave. Back then, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — at the urging of the Trump administration — carried a gerrymander to create five more Republican districts in his state. It threatened to stack the deck against Democratic gains.

Gov. Gavin Newsom counter-punched with his own bid to draw five more seats for California Democrats, Proposition 50.

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In the end, however, it wasn’t necessary — and some Prop. 50 critics say it did a disservice for democracy in general.

As CalMatters’ Maya C. Miller and Nadia Lathan explain, at least five of California’s nine-member Republican delegation suffered losses. It’s not clear yet whether California Democrats could have gained those seats anyway without the gerrymandering, but the party would have had enough to flip the House regardless.

Meanwhile, the partisan redistricting didn’t work out so well for Texas: GOP lawmakers drew five Republican-leaning seats and lost all but one of them.

Click here to read the full article at Cal Matters

Walters: Governor-elect Becerra must quickly confront state budget mess Newsom left behind

The most fundamental — and arguably most important — duty of a California governor is managing the state budget.

Xavier Becerra, the former attorney general who won the governorship Tuesday, must submit a new budget to the Legislature just days after his inauguration in January. Outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom is leaving him with a fiscal mess.

Newsom, who will likely launch a presidential campaign, insisted in June that the 2026-27 budget he signed was not only balanced but would remain so during his predecessor’s first year.

Not by a long shot.

During Newsom’s second term, he and the Legislature routinely enacted general fund budgets that spent billions of dollars more than the state’s tax system was producing, covering the gaps with accounting gimmicks, by draining emergency reserves and incurring on- and off-the-books loans.

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A chart in the back pages of the 2026-27 budget reveals that during Newsom’s eight years of managing the budget, the state took in $1.4 trillion in general fund revenue but spent $1.7 trillion, averaging $37 billion in overspending each year. Among other things, the spending spree increased the state’s payroll by 100,000 positions.

Newsom leaves the state with what Gabe Petek, the Legislature’s budget analyst, describes as a $29 billion “wall of debt” that must eventually be repaid, echoing a term that former Gov. Jerry Brown coined in 2010.

Becerra faces a stark choice.

He could continue the deficit spending, running up even more debt — the governmental equivalent of a family maxing out its credit cards to finance its lifestyle. Or he could do what Brown did when he began his second governorship and faced a $35 billion “a wall of debt” from the effects of the Great Recession.

After his 2010 election, Brown engaged in a very public discussion about what it would take to balance the budget and whittle down its debts. He settled on a mixture of spending reductions and temporary sales and income tax increases, plus creating “rainy day” reserves to cushion future revenue drops.

During Brown’s governorship, general fund income and outgo closely matched, the aforementioned chart confirms. He bequeathed a healthy budget to Newsom.

It would take political courage for Becerra to adopt the face-the-music attitude that Brown displayed in 2011. Politically, the easier path would be to emulate Newsom, who was content to overspend revenues while shunning any major tax increases to cover the gaps.

Becerra has been very reluctant to reveal any policy intentions, but in an interview late last month, he indicated that he may be willing to increase taxes — unlike Newsom.

Becerra told Ashley Zavala, of Sacramento’s KCRA-TV, that he’s interested in raising taxes on high-income Californians, taxing employers whose low-paid workers qualify for Medi-Cal health benefits, closing corporate tax loopholes and adopting a mileage-based tax on electric cars.

Click here to read the full article at CalMatters

 

Newsom proposes $1-billion cap for film and TV tax incentive

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday called for a significant expansion of the state’s film and TV tax incentives in the face of mounting evidence that producers are fleeing California in search of cheaper locales.

Newsom said in a statement Monday that he favors expanding California’s current Film and Television Tax Credit Program from $750 million to at least $1 billion annually.

Notably, Newsom’s proposal would include credits for actors and other above-the-line talent and extend the tax credit through 2040, according to the statement. That would make California’s program more competitive with those of other states such as Georgia and New York that allow tax credits to offset the cost of actors’ salaries.

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If approved by the state Legislature, the credit would be the country’s largest capped film and TV tax credit, Newsom’s office said.

“We’re the capital of entertainment and we’re going to keep it here,” Newsom said in the statement. “Through this expansion, we will maintain the momentum and success of our historic expansion last year.”

Newsom’s announcement comes as the outgoing California governor and possible presidential candidate is looking to burnish his image as a champion of Hollywood as the state is increasingly losing production to other hubs in the U.S. and abroad, where tax incentives are higher and production costs lower.

The proposal puts pressure on fellow Democrat Xavier Becerra, who is widely expected to be California’s next governor, to take up the mantle of helping Hollywood at a time when the state faces rising financial pressures.

Newsom expanded the program last year, when the annual credit was raised from $330 million to $750 million through 2030. Since then, the credit has generated more than $8 billion in direct production spending and over 43,000 jobs, according to the governor’s office.

Newsom also recently signed California’s first stand-alone postproduction credit to bring back jobs for the industry’s editors, sound mixers, composers and visual effects artists.

With a budget of $10 million, the program will allow a 35% to 50% credit on qualified expenses related specifically to postproduction work done in California, even for productions that don’t shoot in the state.

Despite the expanded incentives, local film and TV production in the Los Angeles area continues on a downward trend.

On-location shoot days in the Los Angeles area fell nearly 5% between July and September from the same period a year earlier, and were 29% below the five-year average, according to FilmLA, the nonprofit group that handles film permits for city and county.

Newsom said the expanded credits would address some of California’s limitations.

Click here to read the full article at the LA Times

California 2026 Midterms: Key races to follow

California’s midterm elections, held under new district lines from Proposition 50, could shift the House balance. Key races include the gubernatorial contest.

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SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Key races across the state could shift the balance of power in the House, as these are the first Midterm elections held under the newly drawn congressional district lines approved under Proposition 50.

 The top-of-the-ticket race in California is for the next governor, as Democrat Xavier Becerra faces off against Republican Steve Hilton.

Becerra told ABC10 he wants to make housing more affordable so working families can buy homes and retire in California. His top priorities would be building more housing, protecting access to healthcare, and expanding education, including preschool programs.

Becerra represented Los Angeles in Congress for two decades before being appointed California attorney general in 2017. During that time, Becerra led several California lawsuits against President Donald Trump’s first administration and Republican states. Becerra was also the U.S. Health Secretary under President Joe Biden.

Hilton told ABC10 he’s running because California has become too expensive and hard for small businesses. His first-year priorities include lowering vehicle registration costs, gas prices, electric bills, and making people’s first $150,000 tax-free.

Hilton, a British American, served as senior adviser to former conservative U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012 before moving to California, where he co-founded a Silicon Valley political crowdfunding platform.

Beyond the statewide races, several Congressional races are up for grabs as the voter-approved Proposition 50 lines could lead to several seats switching party affiliation.

Major Races

  • Governor: Xavier Becerra (D) vs. Steve Hilton (R)

Becerra and Hilton advanced to the general election after finishing in the top two of a heavily contested primary in June. A main ideological sticking point between them is how to navigate the state’s relationship with the Trump Administration.

Read more on the Governor’s Race here.

  • Lieutenant Governor: Fiona Ma (D) vs. Gloria Romero (R) 

Ma and Romero are running to replace outgoing Eleni Kounalikis, who’s now seeking the State Treasurer seat.

The Lt. Governor’s main duties are to serve as acting governor when the governor leaves the state and to take over the role if there is a vacancy. The role also includes serving as President of the State Senate and breaking tie votes, which is rare in California given the Democratic supermajority.

Click here to read the full article at ABC News

These CA Election Day rules could block news coverage of voting

Some California counties are issuing guidelines restricting the press from documenting Election Day proceedings at polling places in ways that appear to violate state statutes and the First Amendment.

A coalition of media outlets, led by CalMatters, and a First Amendment advocacy group sent a letter to Kern County raising these concerns, after county elections officials issued initial media guidelines prohibiting media personnel from filming from within 100 feet of poll sites and ballot drop boxes, among other limitations. The coalition has identified other counties with similar prohibitions.

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These restrictions potentially stem from recent notices and poll worker training standards from the California secretary of state. In the guidelines, electioneering — or efforts to persuade voters to vote a certain way — is prohibited. The guidelines prohibit photographing or recording voters who are entering, inside or exiting a polling place without their permission.

But as long as outlets do not try to influence voters, these restrictions go beyond what state law limits and possibly run afoul of constitutional protections of a free press, said Ginny LaRoe the advocacy director at the First Amendment Coalition, which is part of the group raising alarm.

Angélica Salceda, an attorney for American Civil Liberties Union Northern California, said she worries that the restrictions would also have a chilling effect on bystanders who may be discouraged from recording federal immigration activity that may occur near polling stations.

  • Salceda: “We don’t want someone who might be reporting potentially unlawful federal law enforcement activity near a polling location to be told that they’re violating the law simply because of where they’re standing. Getting that clarifying guidance from county registrars, before those restrictions are misapplied, is very important.”

Barring media from capturing voters entering vote centers conflicts with a long U.S. history of reporters gathering footage outside polling stations. News organizations have previously captured long lines, voters explaining why they are casting their ballots, and politicians showing up at polls to vote.

Dedee Verdin, a spokesperson for the secretary of state’s office, emailed CalMatters Sunday night that the office is seeking more clarity from its experts and will respond when she learns more.

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

14 California lawmakers are posting not-so-secret instructions on how to attack their opponents

Some candidates for the California Legislature are increasingly using a controversial tactic that experts and watchdog organizations say appears to flout the state’s campaign finance laws.

A CalMatters’ survey of legislative race websites found at least 14 candidates have detailed campaign messaging packaged on their websites in ways that make it easy for independent expenditure committees to use in advertisements.

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The technique, known as “red boxing,” is being increasingly used in the absence of oversight from state regulators.

CalMatters found at least three instances in which outside groups made digital campaign ads that mirrored the packaged messaging on candidate websites. Under state campaign rules, ads made “at the behest” of official campaigns are presumed to be “coordinated” spending — not independent expenditures — and may illegally exceed campaign finance contribution limits.

In one example, a section in a red box on Assembly candidate Jessie Lopez’s website says “Democratic and (No Party Preference) voters should know” that her competitor, fellow Santa Ana city councilmember David Penaloza, voted to approve a city contract with the surveillance camera company Flock, that he is funded by special interests, and that Jessie Lopez will “fight for working people.”

On Oct. 14, a 15-second ad popped up on the Facebook and Instagram feeds of Santa Ana residents highlighting Penaloza’s approval of the Flock contract, his funding from “big tech billionaires,” and nurses’ and educators’ support for Lopez. It was paid for by an outside group, Working People United sponsored by SEIU California State Council, which has spent at least $1.4 million in support of Lopez since April.

Lopez did not respond to a text message requesting comment, and her campaign did not respond to emailed inquiries about whether the information was intended for an independent expenditure committee. Working People United also did not respond to a request for comment.

But campaign strategists and watchdog groups agree the practice is becoming widespread in competitive California races.

“After Citizens United and all of that, and big money getting into politics, it’s gotten crazy, right? Things have just gotten unwieldy,” said Jorge Contreras, California Director of the Working Families Party, which supports Lopez.

“Because of that, the candidates are using red boxes to try to communicate.”

Click here to read the full article in CalMatters

Proposed billionaire tax could impact California sports teams

  • The proposed billionaire tax on California’s November ballot could slap a one-time 5% levy on wealthy residents, including sports team owners, to raise healthcare funds.
  • Opponents warn professional sports teams owned by wealthy Californians could face higher costs, resulting in job losses, as well as increases to the cost of tickets, parking and concessions.
  • Supporters argue billionaire team owners should pay their fair share after benefiting from Trump-era tax cuts.

The billionaires targeted by the wealth tax on the November ballot include owners of some of California’s top sports teams and, among them, there will be winners and losers if voters approve the measure.

Which owners would be ensnared by the proposed tax on billionaires’ assets remains unclear, since it’s largely dependent on whether they are declared official California residents, at least for state tax purposes. And that’s before lawyers and accountants get involved, an almost certain bet if the ballot measure is approved by California voters.

So it’s possible that the majority owner of the Los Angeles Chargers, Dean Spanos, would have to pay the the wealth tax while the owner of the Los Angeles Rams, San Kroenke, would not — even though both their teams are playing on the same home field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. It all depends on whether the state considers Spanos or Kroenke official California residents and how their assets are tallied.

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Other wealthy team owners or co-owners who have residences in California and could be subject to the tax include the Golden State Warriors’ Joe Lacob and Peter Guber, the San Diego Padres’ José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones, the San Jose Sharks’ Hasso Plattner and the Anaheim Ducks’ Henry Samueli.

Among those who appear to live out of state, according to news reports, and may not be impacted: the San Francisco 49ers’ Denise DeBartolo York and John York, the Los Angeles Clippers’ Steve Ballmer, the San Francisco Giants’ Charles Johnson, the L.A. Kings’ and the L.A. Galaxy’s Philip Anschutz.

In August, embattled billionaire Mark Walter agreed to sell the L.A. Lakers to former Disney chief executive Bob Iger and venture capitalist Joshua Kushner. The proposed billionaire tax would apply to Iger, who lives in California, but not Kushner, who lives in New York. A spokesperson for Iger declined comment. Walter, who also owns the Dodgers and has been under federal investigation, told the California Post on Wednesday that he has no plans to sell the team.

There is uncertainty and disagreement about how the tax would be levied on sports team owners, and how their ownership stakes would be evaluated by the state when assessing their assets.

Representatives of the Warriors and Chargers, declined comment. Spokespeople for the Kings, Padres, Sharks and Ducks did not respond to requests for comment, nor did representatives of Kroenke or Sun Microsystems co-founder Vinod Khosla, who lives in California and whose $9.6-billion purchase of the Seattle Seahawks was finalized in September.

Legendary sports agent Leigh Steinberg warned that the proposed tax would have unintended consequences. “It creates an uneven playing field,” he said. “Out-of-state owners get an advantage over in-state residents.”

Click here to read the full article at the LA Times

California election workers hit with criminal subpoenas as Trump DOJ turns up heat in voting showdown

At least four employees received grand jury subpoenas as the Trump administration questions voter citizenship

Leadership at the Department of Justice is escalating the Trump administration’s fight with California over suspected illegal voting, directing top federal prosecutors to pursue criminal subpoenas of local and state officials.

At least four election workers in California have received federal criminal grand jury subpoenas within the last week, CalMatters reported. At least one of these subpoenas was delivered on Thursday, after a federal judge rejected the DOJ’s request that California set aside mail-in ballots associated with over 20,000 registered voters whose citizenship the Trump administration has called into question.

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A subpoena sent to three election employees at the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s office requested records on how the department stops non-citizens from voting as well as “records relating to or involving evidence collected by your agency which tends to indicate an alien has voted in a federal election.” An official in Orange County received a similar subpoena, local media reported.

“This court believes it would be wise that any threats to state or county employees cease immediately,” the judge said during court proceedings. “These threats must stop,” he wrote in his Wednesday decision.

A Justice Department spokesperson pushed back against characterizations that the administration was targeting individuals with subpoenas, noting that receiving a subpoena doesn’t mean you are a target and that the DOJ generally doesn’t subpoena targets.

Click here to read the full article at Fox News

 

Karen Bass is back in the race

TIGHTENING IN LA — How excited was Karen Bass’ campaign about a new poll showing her in a toss-up against Nithya Raman? Excited enough to post about it at 1:36 a.m.

Just last month, the Berkeley IGS — Los Angeles Times poll showed Bass down 11 points against Raman, a walloping lead that cemented Raman’s status as the front-runner in the mayoral race. Closing a double-digit gap within a month would be a remarkable comeback for Bass, especially because her negatives remain ominously high, with 65% of likely voters viewing her unfavorably.

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But after a rough summer of campaign missteps and brutal headlines, Bass has caught a break in recent weeks, with Raman suffering a series of self-inflicted wounds, largely on public safety. The Bass campaign has alternately hammered her with accusations of being too far left on public safety — citing her appearance in a video with a social media influencer who referred to Los Angeles as a fascist city and her call to replace current police chief Jim McDonnell — and too complimentary of law-and-order former chief Daryl Gates.

Raman was slow to apologize for the Gates comment and offered contradictory answers on McDonnell’s future. The crime-focused news cycle dragged on for days, forcing Raman off her preferred framing of the race: a referendum on Bass’ tenure. Now, Raman’s favorability is underwater for the first time in that poll, with 49% of likely voters holding unfavorable views versus 42% who viewed her positively.

To the Bass campaign, the results are a validation of its recent strategy.

“It’s an affirmation of the past few weeks of Nithya being exposed as not being up for the job,” said Bass spokesperson Alex Stack.

The poll contains some warning signs for Bass. Raman leads among Democrats and independents, and has a slight edge among white and Latino voters. Bass’ strength is with Republicans and Black voters — an incongruous coalition that would not be enough alone to win in an overwhelmingly Democratic city where Black residents are less than 10% of the voting population.

Still, the Bass campaign was eager to tout the findings, a reversal from last month when it dismissed the Berkeley IGS survey as an outlier.

Click here to read the full article in Politico

Bass comes from behind, now in dead heat with Raman in mayor’s race, new poll shows

  • Raman and Bass are tied with support from 40% of likely L.A. voters heading into the Nov. 3 election, according to the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll.
  • Most of Bass’ come-from-behind surge is the result of her winning over voters who cast their ballot for Spencer Pratt in the June primary, the poll showed.

The race for mayor of Los Angeles is a dead heat as the campaign draws to a close, with a new poll showing incumbent Karen Bass erasing the double-digit lead previously held by Councilmember Nithya Raman.

Raman and Bass now each have 40% of likely L.A. voters in their camps, with 19% still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times.

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The neck-and-neck contest is a big change from September, when Raman jumped out to an 11-percentage-point lead with support from 39% of likely voters compared with Bass at 28%.

It follows weeks of relentless attacks on Raman by Bass, whom some analysts had predicted would need to campaign more aggressively to close the gap with her challenger.

“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll.

The survey released Wednesday was conducted online in English and Spanish with a sample of 2,197 likely city voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of about three percentage points.

“The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass,” said Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Bass’ campaign. “Ever since Angelenos got their ballots, Nithya Raman has made headlines for all the wrong reasons — voters know they can’t trust her on public safety and other key issues.”

The Raman campaign cited high unfavorable numbers for Bass in the poll, and noted that the mayor “still can’t get ahead” in voter surveys.

“Bass hasn’t led a poll since August and an aggregate of all publicly available polls continues to show Nithya in the lead,” the Raman campaign said in a news release.

The leveling off of the race, along with the sharp decline in undecided voters, was spurred largely by conservative voters who chose Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary deciding to vote for the mayor in the runoff, said DiCamillo.

In the September Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll, 22% of Pratt voters said they planned to support Bass, while 16% said they favored Raman. That left a whopping 63% of Pratt voters undecided still.

In the new poll, Bass shot up to 41% of the Pratt vote, while Raman dropped to 14% and 45% were still undecided. Pratt hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the race and continues to bash both Raman and Bass on social media.

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times