Hilton’s magic number really is 40.82%

November 3, 2026 By James V. Lacy 1 Comment

Polls suggest he won’t finish as well as last GOP candidate for Governor.

Who will be our beloved California’s next Governor? Given the state’s persistent problems of inability to reduce homelessness, really high taxes including affordability of taxes on gas, wasteful spending on dubious transportation projects, fraud and mismanagement in the unemployment department and Medi-Cal, housing and more, after 20 years of the same party rule, we could really use a change and the facts support change. But polls tell us overwhelmingly that no change is in store for the Governor’s race. Our citizens complain about California, some flee the state, but the ones who stay fail to take action at the ballot box to change things for the better.

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I surely did not vote for Becerra, but he will be our next Governor. The opposition simply could not come together with what it needed to be unified and communicate a compelling message with a compelling candidate and I deeply regret offering this fact. In neighboring Oregon with similar problems to us, the GOP has a chance to win the Governorship despite antagonism to Trump.

Click here to read the full article at James V. Lacy’s Substack

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Poll: Voters tiring of Newsom, yet may not really want change

October 22, 2026 By Blake Jones 1 Comment

Xavier Becerra, another mainstream Democrat who has effusively praised Newsom, is running ahead of Republican Steve Hilton by a 20-point margin, according to a new Citrin-POLITICO survey.

SACRAMENTO, California — Most California voters rate Gavin Newsom’s tenure governing California as “poor” or “fair” and want his successor to take the state in a different direction, according to a new Citrin-POLITICO poll.

Yet Xavier Becerra, another mainstream Democrat who was among the gubernatorial candidates to most effusively praise Newsom during the primary, is on track to beat Republican Steve Hilton by a 20-point margin, according to the survey. The results suggest a disconnect between voters expressing desire for policy change, but picking a candidate more similar to the status quo.

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“Becerra basically wins everyone — the third of the electorate that wants to continue the policies — and picks up nearly a third of those who want change,” said Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, whose firm fielded the poll.

Just 36% of registered voters characterize Newsom’s performance over the last eight years as “good” or “excellent,” according to the survey, and only 28% would like to see the next governor continue his policies.

The tepid views of Newsom’s performance in his home state add to concerns from Democrats elsewhere about whether his record will, if he runs for president, be a liability on the campaign trail. They also come as California voters have soured on the idea of Newsom running for president, according to another recent Citrin-POLITICO survey.

But a strong majority of California Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters — 61% — said they would be excited for a Newsom presidential bid, according to that survey, while 39% would not be. Democrats were less keen on former Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 55% majority saying they would not be excited for her to run. Newsom’s approval rating was 51% in a recent survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, a few points higher than the California Legislature’s.

“Gavin Newsom overwhelmingly won five elections in eight years and is the most popular outgoing Governor in the history of PPIC polling the question,” Newsom spokesperson Izzy Gardon said in a statement. “It’s a shame America’s Favorite Governor can’t run for another term — he’d crush it!”

Newsom received his strongest marks on climate change in the new survey, where more voters said he had done well than poorly. His weakest reviews were on housing and homelessness: Just 28% said he had done a good job on housing and 25% on homelessness. Nearly three in four voters said he had not handled homelessness well.

Click here to read the full article in Politico

 

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Steve Hilton is going down to crushing defeat

September 26, 2026 By James V. Lacy 3 Comments

Moderates and Conservatives need to focus on Prop. 40 (Billionaire’s tax) to motivate voter turnout

Let’s get real California. Steve Hilton’s campaign for California Governor is over. He is being crushed by Xavier Becerra, and Becerra isn’t even trying to do so. And the TV ads tying Hilton to an unpopular Donald Trump in California (anomalous in this state at just 27% favorable) haven’t even started yet.

A new Berkeley/IGS poll released today gives Becerra a 25 point lead a week or so before voting starts. Despite Hilton’s soupy evergreen smile and cheery disposition talking about “Cal-i-fornia” on Fox News channel, Becerra is leading 58% to 33% for Hilton, and Hilton’s trajectory in all the recent polls is down, down, and worsening. In my view, nothing he does now will allow him to climb anywhere near the 41% finish State Senator Brian Dahle gained four years ago in his race against Gavin Newsom. Hilton is dead in the water. As a conservative Republican I don’t like saying that, but it is so evidently true it can’t be ignored, especially considering down ballot candidates who are conservatives and who will now be burdened by the double millstone of an unpopular President and a candidate for Governor who is not motivating the kind of voter turnout these down ballot candidates need and deserve.

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Similarly, the Proposition 39 “Voter ID” effort and campaign has been botched. I got a call from a Republican candidate for statewide office a month ago saying he was featuring “Voter ID” in Prop. 39 as a centerpiece of his campaign, like that was a secret weapon. It isn’t, not the way that measure was proposed and handled. Prop. 39 should be ahead, as it is a no-brainer that almost everyone agrees with showing ID to vote. But it is behind in the polls and also sinking. Why? Prop. 39’s backers got the wrong lawyer to draft the measure, whose wording left predictable loop-holes and vulnerabilities that allowed Democrat Attorney General Bonta to eviscerate his writing of the “Title and Summary” of the measure that goes on the ballot. For independent and less alert voters, who rely on ballot information, that tilted the vote against the measure in a legal but underhanded fashion. Added to this is the predictable early and effective campaign by partisan Democrats to turn the Proposition into a battle on Trump’s popularity which dooms it to utter defeat. The Yes on Prop. 39 campaign was absent while the Left defined the election as about whether or not you liked Trump in crazy TDS California. That campaign is a goner and is not going to motivate voters needed for down ballot conservatives to win any more than a Steve Hilton garden party.

Click here to read the full article at James Lacy’s Substack

 

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Becerra pledges to debate Hilton — more than once — between now and Nov. 3

August 20, 2026 By Seema Mehta Leave a Comment
  • Democratic gubernatorial front-runner Xavier Becerra, facing criticism from GOP rival Steve Hilton for a lack of public visibility since the primary election, pledged to face the Republican in multiple debates before the Nov. 3 general election to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.
  • A new UC Berkeley/L.A. Times poll shows Becerra leading Hilton 55% to 37% in heavily Democratic California, where Republicans last won statewide office in 2006.
  • Becerra visited Little Tokyo during the Nisei Week festival, highlighting ties to a community he represented while in Congress.

Democrat Xavier Becerra pledged on Tuesday to participate in more than one debate against Steve Hilton, his GOP rival in the California governor’s race.

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“We will have debates, and between now and Nov. 3, we will continue to go out there and meet with folks to make sure they have an opportunity to see the candidates,” Becerra told reporters after greeting business owners, community leaders and voters in a walking tour of Little Tokyo. “Voters need to have good information. We’ll make sure they have it, and there will be debates.”

Hilton has been needling Becerra for not being as publicly visible on the campaign trail since the two men advanced in the June primary. The British-born conservative strategist and political commentator raises chickens at his Silicon Valley home and has said he named one of them “Xavier.”

“Xavier Becerra wants to be governor while dodging questions from the press and a debate with me,” Hilton posted on the social media platform X earlier this month.”What else do you expect from a lazy, arrogant, entitled ‘empty suit’ 36-year machine politician.”

Becerra held a 55% to 37% lead over Hilton in a UC Berkeley/L.A. Times poll released Thursday. The margin is unsurprising given the edge that Democrats have in voter registration over Republicans in a state that last elected GOP politicians to statewide office in 2006.

Becerra, asked Tuesday about Hilton’s criticism that he was “coasting” to election in the November general election to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, rejected the notion.

“Well, if I were trying to coast, I’d be out on the coast right now instead of here with you all and making a nice visit to Little Tokyo,” he said outside of an Asian-fusion gastropub on an oppressively hot, muggy afternoon. “Listen, this is all about making sure voters have a choice. We’ll get out there and make sure we’re front and center with them … even if it’s a little hot.”

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

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Becerra holds strong lead over Hilton in race for California governor, new poll shows

August 14, 2026 By Nicole Nixon 3 Comments
  • Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding 55% to 37% lead over Republican Steve Hilton in a new Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll ahead of November’s election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.
  • Support breaks sharply along party lines, with progressives and no-party-preference voters driving Becerra’s advantage.
  • Majorities in Los Angeles and San Diego counties, the Bay Area and the Central Coast back Becerra, while Hilton leads in conservative inland regions, highlighting California’s deep urban-rural and economic divides.

SACRAMENTO — As the campaign for California governor heads into the general election, Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a strong lead over Republican Steve Hilton, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Buoyed by the state’s liberal voting base, Becerra had support from 55% of likely voters surveyed — compared with Hilton’s 37%. The remaining 7% were undecided.

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Like in a previous IGS poll conducted in late May, support for each candidate falls overwhelmingly along partisan lines: 88% of Democrats prefer Becerra and 91% of Republicans plan to back Hilton. No-party-preference voters also lean heavily toward Becerra, a former Biden administration Cabinet member, 58% to Hilton’s 30%.

The two will face off in the Nov. 3 general election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from running again and considering a 2028 bid for president. Becerra, whose resume includes stints as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and state attorney general, is heavily favored to win the seat over Hilton, a former Fox News host who advised a prime minister in his native Britain.

“After the unsettled and chaotic primary, this is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and IGS co-director. “Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race.”

According to the poll, majorities of voters across age, gender and racial categories prefer Becerra — with particularly strong support among women, younger voters and Black Californians.

Click here to read the full article in the LA Times

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